Causally-Aware Spatio-Temporal Multi-Graph Convolution Network for Accurate and Reliable Traffic Prediction

Accurate and reliable prediction has profound implications to a wide range of applications. In this study, we focus on an instance of spatio-temporal learning problem--traffic prediction--to demonstrate an advanced deep learning model developed for making accurate and reliable forecast. Despite the significant progress in traffic prediction, limited studies have incorporated both explicit and implicit traffic patterns simultaneously to improve prediction performance. Meanwhile, the variability nature of traffic states necessitates quantifying the uncertainty of model predictions in a statistically principled way; however, extant studies offer no provable guarantee on the statistical validity of confidence intervals in reflecting its actual likelihood of containing the ground truth. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end traffic prediction framework that leverages three primary components to generate accurate and reliable traffic predictions: dynamic causal structure learning for discovering implicit traffic patterns from massive traffic data, causally-aware spatio-temporal multi-graph convolution network (CASTMGCN) for learning spatio-temporal dependencies, and conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification. CASTMGCN fuses several graphs that characterize different important aspects of traffic networks and an auxiliary graph that captures the effect of exogenous factors on the road network. On this basis, a conformal prediction approach tailored to spatio-temporal data is further developed for quantifying the uncertainty in node-wise traffic predictions over varying prediction horizons. Experimental results on two real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms several state-of-the-art models in prediction accuracy; moreover, it generates more efficient prediction regions than other methods while strictly satisfying the statistical validity in coverage.

Enhancing the Performance of Neural Networks Through Causal Discovery and Integration of Domain Knowledge

In this paper, we develop a generic methodology to encode hierarchical causality structure among observed variables into a neural network in order to improve its predictive performance. The proposed methodology, called causality-informed neural network (CINN), leverages three coherent steps to systematically map the structural causal knowledge into the layer-to-layer design of neural network while strictly preserving the orientation of every causal relationship. In the first step, CINN discovers causal relationships from observational data via directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning, where causal discovery is recast as a continuous optimization problem to avoid the combinatorial nature. In the second step, the discovered hierarchical causality structure among observed variables is systematically encoded into neural network through a dedicated architecture and customized loss function. By categorizing variables in the causal DAG as root, intermediate, and leaf nodes, the hierarchical causal DAG is translated into CINN with a one-to-one correspondence between nodes in the causal DAG and units in the CINN while maintaining the relative order among these nodes. Regarding the loss function, both intermediate and leaf nodes in the DAG graph are treated as target outputs during CINN training so as to drive co-learning of causal relationships among different types of nodes. As multiple loss components emerge in CINN, we leverage the projection of conflicting gradients to mitigate gradient interference among the multiple learning tasks. Computational experiments across a broad spectrum of UCI data sets demonstrate substantial advantages of CINN in predictive performance over other state-of-the-art methods. In addition, an ablation study underscores the value of integrating structural and quantitative causal knowledge in enhancing the neural network's predictive performance incrementally.

A class-weighted supervised contrastive learning long-tailed bearing fault diagnosis approach using quadratic neural network

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success in bearing fault diagnosis. However, its performance oftentimes deteriorates when dealing with highly imbalanced or long-tailed data, while such cases are prevalent in industrial settings because fault is a rare event that occurs with an extremely low probability. Conventional data augmentation methods face fundamental limitations due to the scarcity of samples pertaining to the minority class. In this paper, we propose a supervised contrastive learning approach with a class-aware loss function to enhance the feature extraction capability of neural networks for fault diagnosis. The developed class-weighted contrastive learning quadratic network (CCQNet) consists of a quadratic convolutional residual network backbone, a contrastive learning branch utilizing a class-weighted contrastive loss, and a classifier branch employing logit-adjusted cross-entropy loss. By utilizing class-weighted contrastive loss and logit-adjusted cross-entropy loss, our approach encourages equidistant representation of class features, thereby inducing equal attention on all the classes. We further analyze the superior feature extraction ability of quadratic network by establishing the connection between quadratic neurons and autocorrelation in signal processing. Experimental results on public and proprietary datasets are used to validate the effectiveness of CCQNet, and computational results reveal that CCQNet outperforms SOTA methods in handling extremely imbalanced data substantially.

BearingPGA-Net: A Lightweight and Deployable Bearing Fault Diagnosis Network via Decoupled Knowledge Distillation and FPGA Acceleration

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success in the field of bearing fault diagnosis. However, this success comes with larger models and more complex computations, which cannot be transferred into industrial fields requiring models to be of high speed, strong portability, and low power consumption. In this paper, we propose a lightweight and deployable model for bearing fault diagnosis, referred to as BearingPGA-Net, to address these challenges. Firstly, aided by a well-trained large model, we train BearingPGA-Net via decoupled knowledge distillation. Despite its small size, our model demonstrates excellent fault diagnosis performance compared to other lightweight state-of-the-art methods. Secondly, we design an FPGA acceleration scheme for BearingPGA-Net using Verilog. This scheme involves the customized quantization and designing programmable logic gates for each layer of BearingPGA-Net on the FPGA, with an emphasis on parallel computing and module reuse to enhance the computational speed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first instance of deploying a CNN-based bearing fault diagnosis model on an FPGA. Experimental results reveal that our deployment scheme achieves over 200 times faster diagnosis speed compared to CPU, while achieving a lower-than-0.4\% performance drop in terms of F1, Recall, and Precision score on our independently-collected bearing dataset. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/asdvfghg/BearingPGA-Net}.

Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning for Engineering Design and Health Prognostics: A Tutorial

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Toward this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. Two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines.

A Comprehensive Review of Digital Twin -- Part 2: Roles of Uncertainty Quantification and Optimization, a Battery Digital Twin, and Perspectives

As an emerging technology in the era of Industry 4.0, digital twin is gaining unprecedented attention because of its promise to further optimize process design, quality control, health monitoring, decision and policy making, and more, by comprehensively modeling the physical world as a group of interconnected digital models. In a two-part series of papers, we examine the fundamental role of different modeling techniques, twinning enabling technologies, and uncertainty quantification and optimization methods commonly used in digital twins. This second paper presents a literature review of key enabling technologies of digital twins, with an emphasis on uncertainty quantification, optimization methods, open source datasets and tools, major findings, challenges, and future directions. Discussions focus on current methods of uncertainty quantification and optimization and how they are applied in different dimensions of a digital twin. Additionally, this paper presents a case study where a battery digital twin is constructed and tested to illustrate some of the modeling and twinning methods reviewed in this two-part review. Code and preprocessed data for generating all the results and figures presented in the case study are available on GitHub.

A Comprehensive Review of Digital Twin -- Part 1: Modeling and Twinning Enabling Technologies

As an emerging technology in the era of Industry 4.0, digital twin is gaining unprecedented attention because of its promise to further optimize process design, quality control, health monitoring, decision and policy making, and more, by comprehensively modeling the physical world as a group of interconnected digital models. In a two-part series of papers, we examine the fundamental role of different modeling techniques, twinning enabling technologies, and uncertainty quantification and optimization methods commonly used in digital twins. This first paper presents a thorough literature review of digital twin trends across many disciplines currently pursuing this area of research. Then, digital twin modeling and twinning enabling technologies are further analyzed by classifying them into two main categories: physical-to-virtual, and virtual-to-physical, based on the direction in which data flows. Finally, this paper provides perspectives on the trajectory of digital twin technology over the next decade, and introduces a few emerging areas of research which will likely be of great use in future digital twin research. In part two of this review, the role of uncertainty quantification and optimization are discussed, a battery digital twin is demonstrated, and more perspectives on the future of digital twin are shared.

A generic physics-informed neural network-based framework for reliability assessment of multi-state systems

In this paper, we leverage the recent advances in physics-informed neural network (PINN) and develop a generic PINN-based framework to assess the reliability of multi-state systems (MSSs). The proposed methodology consists of two major steps. In the first step, we recast the reliability assessment of MSS as a machine learning problem using the framework of PINN. A feedforward neural network with two individual loss groups are constructed to encode the initial condition and state transitions governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in MSS. Next, we tackle the problem of high imbalance in the magnitude of the back-propagated gradients in PINN from a multi-task learning perspective. Particularly, we treat each element in the loss function as an individual task, and adopt a gradient surgery approach named projecting conflicting gradients (PCGrad), where a task's gradient is projected onto the norm plane of any other task that has a conflicting gradient. The gradient projection operation significantly mitigates the detrimental effects caused by the gradient interference when training PINN, thus accelerating the convergence speed of PINN to high-precision solutions to MSS reliability assessment. With the proposed PINN-based framework, we investigate its applications for MSS reliability assessment in several different contexts in terms of time-independent or dependent state transitions and system scales varying from small to medium. The results demonstrate that the proposed PINN-based framework shows generic and remarkable performance in MSS reliability assessment, and the incorporation of PCGrad in PINN leads to substantial improvement in solution quality and convergence speed.

A bio-inspired algorithm for fuzzy user equilibrium problem by aid of Physarum Polycephalum

The user equilibrium in traffic assignment problem is based on the fact that travelers choose the minimum-cost path between every origin-destination pair and on the assumption that such a behavior will lead to an equilibrium of the traffic network. In this paper, we consider this problem when the traffic network links are fuzzy cost. Therefore, a Physarum-type algorithm is developed to unify the Physarum network and the traffic network for taking full of advantage of Physarum Polycephalum's adaptivity in network design to solve the user equilibrium problem. Eventually, some experiments are used to test the performance of this method. The results demonstrate that our approach is competitive when compared with other existing algorithms.

A Physarum-Inspired Approach to Optimal Supply Chain Network Design at Minimum Total Cost with Demand Satisfaction

A supply chain is a system which moves products from a supplier to customers. The supply chains are ubiquitous. They play a key role in all economic activities. Inspired by biological principles of nutrients' distribution in protoplasmic networks of slime mould Physarum polycephalum we propose a novel algorithm for a supply chain design. The algorithm handles the supply networks where capacity investments and product flows are variables. The networks are constrained by a need to satisfy product demands. Two features of the slime mould are adopted in our algorithm. The first is the continuity of a flux during the iterative process, which is used in real-time update of the costs associated with the supply links. The second feature is adaptivity. The supply chain can converge to an equilibrium state when costs are changed. Practicality and flexibility of our algorithm is illustrated on numerical examples.