ZIP-FIT: Embedding-Free Data Selection via Compression-Based Alignment

Data selection is crucial for optimizing language model (LM) performance on specific tasks, yet most existing methods fail to effectively consider the target task distribution. Current approaches either ignore task-specific requirements entirely or rely on approximations that fail to capture the nuanced patterns needed for tasks like Autoformalization or code generation. Methods that do consider the target distribution often rely on simplistic, sometimes noisy, representations, like hashed n-gram features, which can lead to collisions and introduce noise. We introduce ZIP-FIT, a data selection framework that uses gzip compression to directly measure alignment between potential training data and the target task distribution. In extensive evaluations on Autoformalization and Python code generation, ZIP-FIT significantly outperforms leading baselines like DSIR and D4. Models trained on ZIP-FIT-selected data achieve their lowest cross-entropy loss up to 85.1\% faster than baselines, demonstrating that better task alignment leads to more efficient learning. In addition, ZIP-FIT performs selection up to 65.8\% faster than DSIR and two orders of magnitude faster than D4. Notably, ZIP-FIT shows that smaller, well-aligned datasets often outperform larger but less targeted ones, demonstrating that a small amount of higher quality data is superior to a large amount of lower quality data. Our results imply that task-aware data selection is crucial for efficient domain adaptation, and that compression offers a principled way to measure task alignment. By showing that targeted data selection can dramatically improve task-specific performance, our work provides new insights into the relationship between data quality, task alignment, and model learning efficiency.

Collapse or Thrive? Perils and Promises of Synthetic Data in a Self-Generating World

The increasing presence of AI-generated content on the internet raises a critical question: What happens when generative machine learning models are pretrained on web-scale datasets containing data created by earlier models? Some authors prophesy $\textit{model collapse}$ under a "$\textit{replace}$" scenario: a sequence of models, the first trained with real data and each later one trained only on synthetic data from its preceding model. In this scenario, models successively degrade. Others see collapse as easily avoidable; in an "$\textit{accumulate}$' scenario, a sequence of models is trained, but each training uses all real and synthetic data generated so far. In this work, we deepen and extend the study of these contrasting scenarios. First, collapse versus avoidance of collapse is studied by comparing the replace and accumulate scenarios on each of three prominent generative modeling settings; we find the same contrast emerges in all three settings. Second, we study a compromise scenario; the available data remains the same as in the accumulate scenario -- but unlike $\textit{accumulate}$ and like $\textit{replace}$, each model is trained using a fixed compute budget; we demonstrate that model test loss on real data is larger than in the $\textit{accumulate}$ scenario, but apparently plateaus, unlike the divergence seen with $\textit{replace}$. Third, we study the relative importance of cardinality and proportion of real data for avoiding model collapse. Surprisingly, we find a non-trivial interaction between real and synthetic data, where the value of synthetic data for reducing test loss depends on the absolute quantity of real data. Our insights are particularly important when forecasting whether future frontier generative models will collapse or thrive, and our results open avenues for empirically and mathematically studying the context-dependent value of synthetic data.

When Do Universal Image Jailbreaks Transfer Between Vision-Language Models?

The integration of new modalities into frontier AI systems offers exciting capabilities, but also increases the possibility such systems can be adversarially manipulated in undesirable ways. In this work, we focus on a popular class of vision-language models (VLMs) that generate text outputs conditioned on visual and textual inputs. We conducted a large-scale empirical study to assess the transferability of gradient-based universal image "jailbreaks" using a diverse set of over 40 open-parameter VLMs, including 18 new VLMs that we publicly release. Overall, we find that transferable gradient-based image jailbreaks are extremely difficult to obtain. When an image jailbreak is optimized against a single VLM or against an ensemble of VLMs, the jailbreak successfully jailbreaks the attacked VLM(s), but exhibits little-to-no transfer to any other VLMs; transfer is not affected by whether the attacked and target VLMs possess matching vision backbones or language models, whether the language model underwent instruction-following and/or safety-alignment training, or many other factors. Only two settings display partially successful transfer: between identically-pretrained and identically-initialized VLMs with slightly different VLM training data, and between different training checkpoints of a single VLM. Leveraging these results, we then demonstrate that transfer can be significantly improved against a specific target VLM by attacking larger ensembles of "highly-similar" VLMs. These results stand in stark contrast to existing evidence of universal and transferable text jailbreaks against language models and transferable adversarial attacks against image classifiers, suggesting that VLMs may be more robust to gradient-based transfer attacks.

Uncovering Latent Memories: Assessing Data Leakage and Memorization Patterns in Large Language Models

The proliferation of large language models has revolutionized natural language processing tasks, yet it raises profound concerns regarding data privacy and security. Language models are trained on extensive corpora including potentially sensitive or proprietary information, and the risk of data leakage -- where the model response reveals pieces of such information -- remains inadequately understood. This study examines susceptibility to data leakage by quantifying the phenomenon of memorization in machine learning models, focusing on the evolution of memorization patterns over training. We investigate how the statistical characteristics of training data influence the memories encoded within the model by evaluating how repetition influences memorization. We reproduce findings that the probability of memorizing a sequence scales logarithmically with the number of times it is present in the data. Furthermore, we find that sequences which are not apparently memorized after the first encounter can be uncovered throughout the course of training even without subsequent encounters. The presence of these latent memorized sequences presents a challenge for data privacy since they may be hidden at the final checkpoint of the model. To this end, we develop a diagnostic test for uncovering these latent memorized sequences by considering their cross entropy loss.

In-Context Learning of Energy Functions

In-context learning is a powerful capability of certain machine learning models that arguably underpins the success of today's frontier AI models. However, in-context learning is critically limited to settings where the in-context distribution of interest $p_{\theta}^{ICL}( x|\mathcal{D})$ can be straightforwardly expressed and/or parameterized by the model; for instance, language modeling relies on expressing the next-token distribution as a categorical distribution parameterized by the network's output logits. In this work, we present a more general form of in-context learning without such a limitation that we call \textit{in-context learning of energy functions}. The idea is to instead learn the unconstrained and arbitrary in-context energy function $E_{\theta}^{ICL}(x|\mathcal{D})$ corresponding to the in-context distribution $p_{\theta}^{ICL}(x|\mathcal{D})$. To do this, we use classic ideas from energy-based modeling. We provide preliminary evidence that our method empirically works on synthetic data. Interestingly, our work contributes (to the best of our knowledge) the first example of in-context learning where the input space and output space differ from one another, suggesting that in-context learning is a more-general capability than previously realized.

Quantifying Variance in Evaluation Benchmarks

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale ($\sim$7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Towards an Improved Understanding and Utilization of Maximum Manifold Capacity Representations

Maximum Manifold Capacity Representations (MMCR) is a recent multi-view self-supervised learning (MVSSL) method that matches or surpasses other leading MVSSL methods. MMCR is intriguing because it does not fit neatly into any of the commonplace MVSSL lineages, instead originating from a statistical mechanical perspective on the linear separability of data manifolds. In this paper, we seek to improve our understanding and our utilization of MMCR. To better understand MMCR, we leverage tools from high dimensional probability to demonstrate that MMCR incentivizes alignment and uniformity of learned embeddings. We then leverage tools from information theory to show that such embeddings maximize a well-known lower bound on mutual information between views, thereby connecting the geometric perspective of MMCR to the information-theoretic perspective commonly discussed in MVSSL. To better utilize MMCR, we mathematically predict and experimentally confirm non-monotonic changes in the pretraining loss akin to double descent but with respect to atypical hyperparameters. We also discover compute scaling laws that enable predicting the pretraining loss as a function of gradients steps, batch size, embedding dimension and number of views. We then show that MMCR, originally applied to image data, is performant on multimodal image-text data. By more deeply understanding the theoretical and empirical behavior of MMCR, our work reveals insights on improving MVSSL methods.

Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Is Model Collapse Inevitable? Breaking the Curse of Recursion by Accumulating Real and Synthetic Data

The proliferation of generative models, combined with pretraining on web-scale data, raises a timely question: what happens when these models are trained on their own generated outputs? Recent investigations into model-data feedback loops discovered that such loops can lead to model collapse, a phenomenon where performance progressively degrades with each model-fitting iteration until the latest model becomes useless. However, several recent papers studying model collapse assumed that new data replace old data over time rather than assuming data accumulate over time. In this paper, we compare these two settings and show that accumulating data prevents model collapse. We begin by studying an analytically tractable setup in which a sequence of linear models are fit to the previous models' predictions. Previous work showed if data are replaced, the test error increases linearly with the number of model-fitting iterations; we extend this result by proving that if data instead accumulate, the test error has a finite upper bound independent of the number of iterations. We next empirically test whether accumulating data similarly prevents model collapse by pretraining sequences of language models on text corpora. We confirm that replacing data does indeed cause model collapse, then demonstrate that accumulating data prevents model collapse; these results hold across a range of model sizes, architectures and hyperparameters. We further show that similar results hold for other deep generative models on real data: diffusion models for molecule generation and variational autoencoders for image generation. Our work provides consistent theoretical and empirical evidence that data accumulation mitigates model collapse.

Bridging Associative Memory and Probabilistic Modeling

Associative memory and probabilistic modeling are two fundamental topics in artificial intelligence. The first studies recurrent neural networks designed to denoise, complete and retrieve data, whereas the second studies learning and sampling from probability distributions. Based on the observation that associative memory's energy functions can be seen as probabilistic modeling's negative log likelihoods, we build a bridge between the two that enables useful flow of ideas in both directions. We showcase four examples: First, we propose new energy-based models that flexibly adapt their energy functions to new in-context datasets, an approach we term \textit{in-context learning of energy functions}. Second, we propose two new associative memory models: one that dynamically creates new memories as necessitated by the training data using Bayesian nonparametrics, and another that explicitly computes proportional memory assignments using the evidence lower bound. Third, using tools from associative memory, we analytically and numerically characterize the memory capacity of Gaussian kernel density estimators, a widespread tool in probababilistic modeling. Fourth, we study a widespread implementation choice in transformers -- normalization followed by self attention -- to show it performs clustering on the hypersphere. Altogether, this work urges further exchange of useful ideas between these two continents of artificial intelligence.