Calibrating Language Models with Adaptive Temperature Scaling

The effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) is not only measured by their ability to generate accurate outputs but also by their calibration-how well their confidence scores reflect the probability of their outputs being correct. While unsupervised pre-training has been shown to yield LLMs with well-calibrated conditional probabilities, recent studies have shown that after fine-tuning with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), the calibration of these models degrades significantly. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Temperature Scaling (ATS), a post-hoc calibration method that predicts a temperature scaling parameter for each token prediction. The predicted temperature values adapt based on token-level features and are fit over a standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) dataset. The adaptive nature of ATS addresses the varying degrees of calibration shift that can occur after RLHF fine-tuning. ATS improves calibration by over 10-50% across three downstream natural language evaluation benchmarks compared to prior calibration methods and does not impede performance improvements from RLHF.

Bidirectional Decoding: Improving Action Chunking via Closed-Loop Resampling

Predicting and executing a sequence of actions without intermediate replanning, known as action chunking, is increasingly used in robot learning from human demonstrations. However, its effects on learned policies remain puzzling: some studies highlight its importance for achieving strong performance, while others observe detrimental effects. In this paper, we first dissect the role of action chunking by analyzing the divergence between the learner and the demonstrator. We find that longer action chunks enable a policy to better capture temporal dependencies by taking into account more past states and actions within the chunk. However, this advantage comes at the cost of exacerbating errors in stochastic environments due to fewer observations of recent states. To address this, we propose Bidirectional Decoding (BID), a test-time inference algorithm that bridges action chunking with closed-loop operations. BID samples multiple predictions at each time step and searches for the optimal one based on two criteria: (i) backward coherence, which favors samples aligned with previous decisions, (ii) forward contrast, which favors samples close to outputs of a stronger policy and distant from those of a weaker policy. By coupling decisions within and across action chunks, BID enhances temporal consistency over extended sequences while enabling adaptive replanning in stochastic environments. Experimental results show that BID substantially outperforms conventional closed-loop operations of two state-of-the-art generative policies across seven simulation benchmarks and two real-world tasks.

Self-Explainable Temporal Graph Networks based on Graph Information Bottleneck

Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNN) have the ability to capture both the graph topology and dynamic dependencies of interactions within a graph over time. There has been a growing need to explain the predictions of TGNN models due to the difficulty in identifying how past events influence their predictions. Since the explanation model for a static graph cannot be readily applied to temporal graphs due to its inability to capture temporal dependencies, recent studies proposed explanation models for temporal graphs. However, existing explanation models for temporal graphs rely on post-hoc explanations, requiring separate models for prediction and explanation, which is limited in two aspects: efficiency and accuracy of explanation. In this work, we propose a novel built-in explanation framework for temporal graphs, called Self-Explainable Temporal Graph Networks based on Graph Information Bottleneck (TGIB). TGIB provides explanations for event occurrences by introducing stochasticity in each temporal event based on the Information Bottleneck theory. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of TGIB in terms of both the link prediction performance and explainability compared to state-of-the-art methods. This is the first work that simultaneously performs prediction and explanation for temporal graphs in an end-to-end manner.

Self-Guided Masked Autoencoders for Domain-Agnostic Self-Supervised Learning

Self-supervised learning excels in learning representations from large amounts of unlabeled data, demonstrating success across multiple data modalities. Yet, extending self-supervised learning to new modalities is non-trivial because the specifics of existing methods are tailored to each domain, such as domain-specific augmentations which reflect the invariances in the target task. While masked modeling is promising as a domain-agnostic framework for self-supervised learning because it does not rely on input augmentations, its mask sampling procedure remains domain-specific. We present Self-guided Masked Autoencoders (SMA), a fully domain-agnostic masked modeling method. SMA trains an attention based model using a masked modeling objective, by learning masks to sample without any domain-specific assumptions. We evaluate SMA on three self-supervised learning benchmarks in protein biology, chemical property prediction, and particle physics. We find SMA is capable of learning representations without domain-specific knowledge and achieves state-of-the-art performance on these three benchmarks.

Clarify: Improving Model Robustness With Natural Language Corrections

In supervised learning, models are trained to extract correlations from a static dataset. This often leads to models that rely on high-level misconceptions. To prevent such misconceptions, we must necessarily provide additional information beyond the training data. Existing methods incorporate forms of additional instance-level supervision, such as labels for spurious features or additional labeled data from a balanced distribution. Such strategies can become prohibitively costly for large-scale datasets since they require additional annotation at a scale close to the original training data. We hypothesize that targeted natural language feedback about a model's misconceptions is a more efficient form of additional supervision. We introduce Clarify, a novel interface and method for interactively correcting model misconceptions. Through Clarify, users need only provide a short text description to describe a model's consistent failure patterns. Then, in an entirely automated way, we use such descriptions to improve the training process by reweighting the training data or gathering additional targeted data. Our user studies show that non-expert users can successfully describe model misconceptions via Clarify, improving worst-group accuracy by an average of 17.1% in two datasets. Additionally, we use Clarify to find and rectify 31 novel hard subpopulations in the ImageNet dataset, improving minority-split accuracy from 21.1% to 28.7%.

AutoFT: Robust Fine-Tuning by Optimizing Hyperparameters on OOD Data

Foundation models encode rich representations that can be adapted to a desired task by fine-tuning on task-specific data. However, fine-tuning a model on one particular data distribution often compromises the model's original performance on other distributions. Current methods for robust fine-tuning utilize hand-crafted regularization techniques to constrain the fine-tuning process towards the base foundation model. Yet, it is hard to precisely specify what characteristics of the foundation model to retain during fine-tuning, as this depends on how the pre-training, fine-tuning, and evaluation data distributions relate to each other. We propose AutoFT, a data-driven approach for guiding foundation model fine-tuning. AutoFT optimizes fine-tuning hyperparameters to maximize performance on a small out-of-distribution (OOD) validation set. To guide fine-tuning in a granular way, AutoFT searches a highly expressive hyperparameter space that includes weight coefficients for many different losses, in addition to learning rate and weight decay values. We evaluate AutoFT on nine natural distribution shifts which include domain shifts and subpopulation shifts. Our experiments show that AutoFT significantly improves generalization to new OOD data, outperforming existing robust fine-tuning methods. Notably, AutoFT achieves new state-of-the-art performance on the WILDS-iWildCam and WILDS-FMoW benchmarks, outperforming the previous best methods by $6.0\%$ and $1.5\%$, respectively.

Confidence-Based Model Selection: When to Take Shortcuts for Subpopulation Shifts

Effective machine learning models learn both robust features that directly determine the outcome of interest (e.g., an object with wheels is more likely to be a car), and shortcut features (e.g., an object on a road is more likely to be a car). The latter can be a source of error under distributional shift, when the correlations change at test-time. The prevailing sentiment in the robustness literature is to avoid such correlative shortcut features and learn robust predictors. However, while robust predictors perform better on worst-case distributional shifts, they often sacrifice accuracy on majority subpopulations. In this paper, we argue that shortcut features should not be entirely discarded. Instead, if we can identify the subpopulation to which an input belongs, we can adaptively choose among models with different strengths to achieve high performance on both majority and minority subpopulations. We propose COnfidence-baSed MOdel Selection (CosMoS), where we observe that model confidence can effectively guide model selection. Notably, CosMoS does not require any target labels or group annotations, either of which may be difficult to obtain or unavailable. We evaluate CosMoS on four datasets with spurious correlations, each with multiple test sets with varying levels of data distribution shift. We find that CosMoS achieves 2-5% lower average regret across all subpopulations, compared to using only robust predictors or other model aggregation methods.

Conservative Prediction via Data-Driven Confidence Minimization

Errors of machine learning models are costly, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare, where such mistakes can prevent the deployment of machine learning altogether. In these settings, conservative models -- models which can defer to human judgment when they are likely to make an error -- may offer a solution. However, detecting unusual or difficult examples is notably challenging, as it is impossible to anticipate all potential inputs at test time. To address this issue, prior work has proposed to minimize the model's confidence on an auxiliary pseudo-OOD dataset. We theoretically analyze the effect of confidence minimization and show that the choice of auxiliary dataset is critical. Specifically, if the auxiliary dataset includes samples from the OOD region of interest, confidence minimization provably separates ID and OOD inputs by predictive confidence. Taking inspiration from this result, we present data-driven confidence minimization (DCM), which minimizes confidence on an uncertainty dataset containing examples that the model is likely to misclassify at test time. Our experiments show that DCM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art OOD detection methods on 8 ID-OOD dataset pairs, reducing FPR (at TPR 95%) by 6.3% and 58.1% on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, and outperforms existing selective classification approaches on 4 datasets in conditions of distribution shift.

Project and Probe: Sample-Efficient Domain Adaptation by Interpolating Orthogonal Features

Conventional approaches to robustness try to learn a model based on causal features. However, identifying maximally robust or causal features may be difficult in some scenarios, and in others, non-causal "shortcut" features may actually be more predictive. We propose a lightweight, sample-efficient approach that learns a diverse set of features and adapts to a target distribution by interpolating these features with a small target dataset. Our approach, Project and Probe (Pro$^2$), first learns a linear projection that maps a pre-trained embedding onto orthogonal directions while being predictive of labels in the source dataset. The goal of this step is to learn a variety of predictive features, so that at least some of them remain useful after distribution shift. Pro$^2$ then learns a linear classifier on top of these projected features using a small target dataset. We theoretically show that Pro$^2$ learns a projection matrix that is optimal for classification in an information-theoretic sense, resulting in better generalization due to a favorable bias-variance tradeoff. Our experiments on four datasets, with multiple distribution shift settings for each, show that Pro$^2$ improves performance by 5-15% when given limited target data compared to prior methods such as standard linear probing.

DetectGPT: Zero-Shot Machine-Generated Text Detection using Probability Curvature

The fluency and factual knowledge of large language models (LLMs) heightens the need for corresponding systems to detect whether a piece of text is machine-written. For example, students may use LLMs to complete written assignments, leaving instructors unable to accurately assess student learning. In this paper, we first demonstrate that text sampled from an LLM tends to occupy negative curvature regions of the model's log probability function. Leveraging this observation, we then define a new curvature-based criterion for judging if a passage is generated from a given LLM. This approach, which we call DetectGPT, does not require training a separate classifier, collecting a dataset of real or generated passages, or explicitly watermarking generated text. It uses only log probabilities computed by the model of interest and random perturbations of the passage from another generic pre-trained language model (e.g, T5). We find DetectGPT is more discriminative than existing zero-shot methods for model sample detection, notably improving detection of fake news articles generated by 20B parameter GPT-NeoX from 0.81 AUROC for the strongest zero-shot baseline to 0.95 AUROC for DetectGPT. See https://ericmitchell.ai/detectgpt for code, data, and other project information.