BARNN: A Bayesian Autoregressive and Recurrent Neural Network

Autoregressive and recurrent networks have achieved remarkable progress across various fields, from weather forecasting to molecular generation and Large Language Models. Despite their strong predictive capabilities, these models lack a rigorous framework for addressing uncertainty, which is key in scientific applications such as PDE solving, molecular generation and Machine Learning Force Fields. To address this shortcoming we present BARNN: a variational Bayesian Autoregressive and Recurrent Neural Network. BARNNs aim to provide a principled way to turn any autoregressive or recurrent model into its Bayesian version. BARNN is based on the variational dropout method, allowing to apply it to large recurrent neural networks as well. We also introduce a temporal version of the "Variational Mixtures of Posteriors" prior (tVAMP-prior) to make Bayesian inference efficient and well-calibrated. Extensive experiments on PDE modelling and molecular generation demonstrate that BARNN not only achieves comparable or superior accuracy compared to existing methods, but also excels in uncertainty quantification and modelling long-range dependencies.

Artificial Kuramoto Oscillatory Neurons

It has long been known in both neuroscience and AI that ``binding'' between neurons leads to a form of competitive learning where representations are compressed in order to represent more abstract concepts in deeper layers of the network. More recently, it was also hypothesized that dynamic (spatiotemporal) representations play an important role in both neuroscience and AI. Building on these ideas, we introduce Artificial Kuramoto Oscillatory Neurons (AKOrN) as a dynamical alternative to threshold units, which can be combined with arbitrary connectivity designs such as fully connected, convolutional, or attentive mechanisms. Our generalized Kuramoto updates bind neurons together through their synchronization dynamics. We show that this idea provides performance improvements across a wide spectrum of tasks such as unsupervised object discovery, adversarial robustness, calibrated uncertainty quantification, and reasoning. We believe that these empirical results show the importance of rethinking our assumptions at the most basic neuronal level of neural representation, and in particular show the importance of dynamical representations.

GUD: Generation with Unified Diffusion

Diffusion generative models transform noise into data by inverting a process that progressively adds noise to data samples. Inspired by concepts from the renormalization group in physics, which analyzes systems across different scales, we revisit diffusion models by exploring three key design aspects: 1) the choice of representation in which the diffusion process operates (e.g. pixel-, PCA-, Fourier-, or wavelet-basis), 2) the prior distribution that data is transformed into during diffusion (e.g. Gaussian with covariance $\Sigma$), and 3) the scheduling of noise levels applied separately to different parts of the data, captured by a component-wise noise schedule. Incorporating the flexibility in these choices, we develop a unified framework for diffusion generative models with greatly enhanced design freedom. In particular, we introduce soft-conditioning models that smoothly interpolate between standard diffusion models and autoregressive models (in any basis), conceptually bridging these two approaches. Our framework opens up a wide design space which may lead to more efficient training and data generation, and paves the way to novel architectures integrating different generative approaches and generation tasks.

Variational Flow Matching for Graph Generation

We present a formulation of flow matching as variational inference, which we refer to as variational flow matching (VFM). Based on this formulation we develop CatFlow, a flow matching method for categorical data. CatFlow is easy to implement, computationally efficient, and achieves strong results on graph generation tasks. In VFM, the objective is to approximate the posterior probability path, which is a distribution over possible end points of a trajectory. We show that VFM admits both the CatFlow objective and the original flow matching objective as special cases. We also relate VFM to score-based models, in which the dynamics are stochastic rather than deterministic, and derive a bound on the model likelihood based on a reweighted VFM objective. We evaluate CatFlow on one abstract graph generation task and two molecular generation tasks. In all cases, CatFlow exceeds or matches performance of the current state-of-the-art models.

Aurora: A Foundation Model of the Atmosphere

Deep learning foundation models are revolutionizing many facets of science by leveraging vast amounts of data to learn general-purpose representations that can be adapted to tackle diverse downstream tasks. Foundation models hold the promise to also transform our ability to model our planet and its subsystems by exploiting the vast expanse of Earth system data. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model of the atmosphere trained on over a million hours of diverse weather and climate data. Aurora leverages the strengths of the foundation modelling approach to produce operational forecasts for a wide variety of atmospheric prediction problems, including those with limited training data, heterogeneous variables, and extreme events. In under a minute, Aurora produces 5-day global air pollution predictions and 10-day high-resolution weather forecasts that outperform state-of-the-art classical simulation tools and the best specialized deep learning models. Taken together, these results indicate that foundation models can transform environmental forecasting.

DNA: Differentially private Neural Augmentation for contact tracing

The COVID19 pandemic had enormous economic and societal consequences. Contact tracing is an effective way to reduce infection rates by detecting potential virus carriers early. However, this was not generally adopted in the recent pandemic, and privacy concerns are cited as the most important reason. We substantially improve the privacy guarantees of the current state of the art in decentralized contact tracing. Whereas previous work was based on statistical inference only, we augment the inference with a learned neural network and ensure that this neural augmentation satisfies differential privacy. In a simulator for COVID19, even at epsilon=1 per message, this can significantly improve the detection of potentially infected individuals and, as a result of targeted testing, reduce infection rates. This work marks an important first step in integrating deep learning into contact tracing while maintaining essential privacy guarantees.

Binding Dynamics in Rotating Features

In human cognition, the binding problem describes the open question of how the brain flexibly integrates diverse information into cohesive object representations. Analogously, in machine learning, there is a pursuit for models capable of strong generalization and reasoning by learning object-centric representations in an unsupervised manner. Drawing from neuroscientific theories, Rotating Features learn such representations by introducing vector-valued features that encapsulate object characteristics in their magnitudes and object affiliation in their orientations. The "$\chi$-binding" mechanism, embedded in every layer of the architecture, has been shown to be crucial, but remains poorly understood. In this paper, we propose an alternative "cosine binding" mechanism, which explicitly computes the alignment between features and adjusts weights accordingly, and we show that it achieves equivalent performance. This allows us to draw direct connections to self-attention and biological neural processes, and to shed light on the fundamental dynamics for object-centric representations to emerge in Rotating Features.

Position Paper: Bayesian Deep Learning in the Age of Large-Scale AI

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

Perspectives on the State and Future of Deep Learning - 2023

The goal of this series is to chronicle opinions and issues in the field of machine learning as they stand today and as they change over time. The plan is to host this survey periodically until the AI singularity paperclip-frenzy-driven doomsday, keeping an updated list of topical questions and interviewing new community members for each edition. In this issue, we probed people's opinions on interpretable AI, the value of benchmarking in modern NLP, the state of progress towards understanding deep learning, and the future of academia.

Protect Your Score: Contact Tracing With Differential Privacy Guarantees

The pandemic in 2020 and 2021 had enormous economic and societal consequences, and studies show that contact tracing algorithms can be key in the early containment of the virus. While large strides have been made towards more effective contact tracing algorithms, we argue that privacy concerns currently hold deployment back. The essence of a contact tracing algorithm constitutes the communication of a risk score. Yet, it is precisely the communication and release of this score to a user that an adversary can leverage to gauge the private health status of an individual. We pinpoint a realistic attack scenario and propose a contact tracing algorithm with differential privacy guarantees against this attack. The algorithm is tested on the two most widely used agent-based COVID19 simulators and demonstrates superior performance in a wide range of settings. Especially for realistic test scenarios and while releasing each risk score with epsilon=1 differential privacy, we achieve a two to ten-fold reduction in the infection rate of the virus. To the best of our knowledge, this presents the first contact tracing algorithm with differential privacy guarantees when revealing risk scores for COVID19.