A Unified Hyperparameter Optimization Pipeline for Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting Models

Transformer-based models for time series forecasting (TSF) have attracted significant attention in recent years due to their effectiveness and versatility. However, these models often require extensive hyperparameter optimization (HPO) to achieve the best possible performance, and a unified pipeline for HPO in transformer-based TSF remains lacking. In this paper, we present one such pipeline and conduct extensive experiments on several state-of-the-art (SOTA) transformer-based TSF models. These experiments are conducted on standard benchmark datasets to evaluate and compare the performance of different models, generating practical insights and examples. Our pipeline is generalizable beyond transformer-based architectures and can be applied to other SOTA models, such as Mamba and TimeMixer, as demonstrated in our experiments. The goal of this work is to provide valuable guidance to both industry practitioners and academic researchers in efficiently identifying optimal hyperparameters suited to their specific domain applications. The code and complete experimental results are available on GitHub.

The Rise and Down of Babel Tower: Investigating the Evolution Process of Multilingual Code Large Language Model

Large language models (LLMs) have shown significant multilingual capabilities. However, the mechanisms underlying the development of these capabilities during pre-training are not well understood. In this paper, we use code LLMs as an experimental platform to explore the evolution of multilingual capabilities in LLMs during the pre-training process. Based on our observations, we propose the Babel Tower Hypothesis, which describes the entire process of LLMs acquiring new language capabilities. During the learning process, multiple languages initially share a single knowledge system dominated by the primary language and gradually develop language-specific knowledge systems. We then validate the above hypothesis by tracking the internal states of the LLMs through identifying working languages and language transferring neurons. Experimental results show that the internal state changes of the LLM are consistent with our Babel Tower Hypothesis. Building on these insights, we propose a novel method to construct an optimized pre-training corpus for multilingual code LLMs, which significantly outperforms LLMs trained on the original corpus. The proposed Babel Tower Hypothesis provides new insights into designing pre-training data distributions to achieve optimal multilingual capabilities in LLMs.

Why Does the Effective Context Length of LLMs Fall Short?

Advancements in distributed training and efficient attention mechanisms have significantly expanded the context window sizes of large language models (LLMs). However, recent work reveals that the effective context lengths of open-source LLMs often fall short, typically not exceeding half of their training lengths. In this work, we attribute this limitation to the left-skewed frequency distribution of relative positions formed in LLMs pretraining and post-training stages, which impedes their ability to effectively gather distant information. To address this challenge, we introduce ShifTed Rotray position embeddING (STRING). STRING shifts well-trained positions to overwrite the original ineffective positions during inference, enhancing performance within their existing training lengths. Experimental results show that without additional training, STRING dramatically improves the performance of the latest large-scale models, such as Llama3.1 70B and Qwen2 72B, by over 10 points on popular long-context benchmarks RULER and InfiniteBench, establishing new state-of-the-art results for open-source LLMs. Compared to commercial models, Llama 3.1 70B with \method even achieves better performance than GPT-4-128K and clearly surpasses Claude 2 and Kimi-chat.

FAN: Fourier Analysis Networks

Despite the remarkable success achieved by neural networks, particularly those represented by MLP and Transformer, we reveal that they exhibit potential flaws in the modeling and reasoning of periodicity, i.e., they tend to memorize the periodic data rather than genuinely understanding the underlying principles of periodicity. However, periodicity is a crucial trait in various forms of reasoning and generalization, underpinning predictability across natural and engineered systems through recurring patterns in observations. In this paper, we propose FAN, a novel network architecture based on Fourier Analysis, which empowers the ability to efficiently model and reason about periodic phenomena. By introducing Fourier Series, the periodicity is naturally integrated into the structure and computational processes of the neural network, thus achieving a more accurate expression and prediction of periodic patterns. As a promising substitute to multi-layer perceptron (MLP), FAN can seamlessly replace MLP in various models with fewer parameters and FLOPs. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of FAN in modeling and reasoning about periodic functions, and the superiority and generalizability of FAN across a range of real-world tasks, including symbolic formula representation, time series forecasting, and language modeling.

Survey and Taxonomy: The Role of Data-Centric AI in Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting

Alongside the continuous process of improving AI performance through the development of more sophisticated models, researchers have also focused their attention to the emerging concept of data-centric AI, which emphasizes the important role of data in a systematic machine learning training process. Nonetheless, the development of models has also continued apace. One result of this progress is the development of the Transformer Architecture, which possesses a high level of capability in multiple domains such as Natural Language Processing (NLP), Computer Vision (CV) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Its performance is, however, heavily dependent on input data preprocessing and output data evaluation, justifying a data-centric approach to future research. We argue that data-centric AI is essential for training AI models, particularly for transformer-based TSF models efficiently. However, there is a gap regarding the integration of transformer-based TSF and data-centric AI. This survey aims to pin down this gap via the extensive literature review based on the proposed taxonomy. We review the previous research works from a data-centric AI perspective and we intend to lay the foundation work for the future development of transformer-based architecture and data-centric AI.

Let the Code LLM Edit Itself When You Edit the Code

In this work, we investigate a typical scenario in code generation where a developer edits existing code in real time and requests a code assistant, e.g., a large language model, to re-predict the next token or next line on the fly. Naively, the LLM needs to re-encode the entire KV cache to provide an accurate prediction. However, this process is computationally expensive, especially when the sequence length is long. Simply encoding the edited subsequence and integrating it to the original KV cache meets the temporal confusion problem, leading to significantly worse performance. We address this efficiency and accuracy trade-off by introducing \underline{\textbf{Positional \textbf{I}ntegrity \textbf{E}ncoding} (PIE). Building upon the rotary positional encoding, PIE first removes the rotary matrices in the Key cache that introduce temporal confusion and then reapplies the correct rotary matrices. This process ensures that positional relationships between tokens are correct and requires only a single round of matrix multiplication. We validate the effectiveness of PIE through extensive experiments on the RepoBench-C-8k dataset, utilizing DeepSeek-Coder models with 1.3B, 6.7B, and 33B parameters. Our evaluation includes three real-world coding tasks: code insertion, code deletion, and multi-place code editing. Results demonstrate that PIE reduces computational overhead by over 85% compared to the standard full recomputation approach across all model sizes and tasks while well approximating the model performance.

An Expert is Worth One Token: Synergizing Multiple Expert LLMs as Generalist via Expert Token Routing

We present Expert-Token-Routing, a unified generalist framework that facilitates seamless integration of multiple expert LLMs. Our framework represents expert LLMs as special expert tokens within the vocabulary of a meta LLM. The meta LLM can route to an expert LLM like generating new tokens. Expert-Token-Routing not only supports learning the implicit expertise of expert LLMs from existing instruction dataset but also allows for dynamic extension of new expert LLMs in a plug-and-play manner. It also conceals the detailed collaboration process from the user's perspective, facilitating interaction as though it were a singular LLM. Our framework outperforms various existing multi-LLM collaboration paradigms across benchmarks that incorporate six diverse expert domains, demonstrating effectiveness and robustness in building generalist LLM system via synergizing multiple expert LLMs.

Empowering Large Language Model Agents through Action Learning

Large Language Model (LLM) Agents have recently garnered increasing interest yet they are limited in their ability to learn from trial and error, a key element of intelligent behavior. In this work, we argue that the capacity to learn new actions from experience is fundamental to the advancement of learning in LLM agents. While humans naturally expand their action spaces and develop skills through experiential learning, LLM agents typically operate within fixed action spaces, limiting their potential for growth. To address these challenges, our study explores open-action learning for language agents. We introduce a framework LearnAct with an iterative learning strategy to create and improve actions in the form of Python functions. In each iteration, LLM revises and updates the currently available actions based on the errors identified in unsuccessful training tasks, thereby enhancing action effectiveness. Our experimental evaluations across Robotic Planning and Alfworld environments reveal that after learning on a few training task instances, our approach to open-action learning markedly improves agent performance for the type of task (by 32 percent in AlfWorld compared to ReAct+Reflexion, for instance) highlighting the importance of experiential action learning in the development of more intelligent LLM agents.

Two Stones Hit One Bird: Bilevel Positional Encoding for Better Length Extrapolation

In this work, we leverage the intrinsic segmentation of language sequences and design a new positional encoding method called Bilevel Positional Encoding (BiPE). For each position, our BiPE blends an intra-segment encoding and an inter-segment encoding. The intra-segment encoding identifies the locations within a segment and helps the model capture the semantic information therein via absolute positional encoding. The inter-segment encoding specifies the segment index, models the relationships between segments, and aims to improve extrapolation capabilities via relative positional encoding. Theoretical analysis shows this disentanglement of positional information makes learning more effective. The empirical results also show that our BiPE has superior length extrapolation capabilities across a wide range of tasks in diverse text modalities.

InfiAgent-DABench: Evaluating Agents on Data Analysis Tasks

In this paper, we introduce "InfiAgent-DABench", the first benchmark specifically designed to evaluate LLM-based agents in data analysis tasks. This benchmark contains DAEval, a dataset consisting of 311 data analysis questions derived from 55 CSV files, and an agent framework to evaluate LLMs as data analysis agents. We adopt a format-prompting technique, ensuring questions to be closed-form that can be automatically evaluated. Our extensive benchmarking of 23 state-of-the-art LLMs uncovers the current challenges encountered in data analysis tasks. In addition, we have developed DAAgent, a specialized agent trained on instruction-tuning datasets. Evaluation datasets and toolkits for InfiAgent-DABench are released at https://github.com/InfiAgent/InfiAgent.