Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo: A Machine Learning View on Control Variate

Despite being an essential tool across engineering and finance, Monte Carlo simulation can be computationally intensive, especially in large-scale, path-dependent problems that hinder straightforward parallelization. A natural alternative is to replace simulation with machine learning or surrogate prediction, though this introduces challenges in understanding the resulting errors.We introduce a Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo (PEMC) framework where we leverage machine learning prediction as control variates, thus maintaining unbiased evaluations instead of the direct use of ML predictors. Traditional control variate methods require knowledge of means and focus on per-sample variance reduction. In contrast, PEMC aims at overall cost-aware variance reduction, eliminating the need for mean knowledge. PEMC leverages pre-trained neural architectures to construct effective control variates and replaces computationally expensive sample-path generation with efficient neural network evaluations. This allows PEMC to address scenarios where no good control variates are known. We showcase the efficacy of PEMC through two production-grade exotic option-pricing problems: swaption pricing in HJM model and the variance swap pricing in a stochastic local volatility model.

Scores as Actions: a framework of fine-tuning diffusion models by continuous-time reinforcement learning

Reinforcement Learning from human feedback (RLHF) has been shown a promising direction for aligning generative models with human intent and has also been explored in recent works for alignment of diffusion generative models. In this work, we provide a rigorous treatment by formulating the task of fine-tuning diffusion models, with reward functions learned from human feedback, as an exploratory continuous-time stochastic control problem. Our key idea lies in treating the score-matching functions as controls/actions, and upon this, we develop a unified framework from a continuous-time perspective, to employ reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in terms of improving the generation quality of diffusion models. We also develop the corresponding continuous-time RL theory for policy optimization and regularization under assumptions of stochastic different equations driven environment. Experiments on the text-to-image (T2I) generation will be reported in the accompanied paper.

Mallows-DPO: Fine-Tune Your LLM with Preference Dispersions

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has recently emerged as a popular approach to improve reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF), leading to better techniques to fine-tune large language models (LLM). A weakness of DPO, however, lies in its lack of capability to characterize the diversity of human preferences. Inspired by Mallows' theory of preference ranking, we develop in this paper a new approach, the Mallows-DPO. A distinct feature of this approach is a dispersion index, which reflects the dispersion of human preference to prompts. We show that existing DPO models can be reduced to special cases of this dispersion index, thus unified with Mallows-DPO. More importantly, we demonstrate (empirically) how to use this dispersion index to enhance the performance of DPO in a broad array of benchmark tasks, from synthetic bandit selection to controllable generations and dialogues, while maintaining great generalization capabilities.

Pseudo-Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian Optimization is a popular approach for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Its key idea is to use a surrogate model to approximate the objective and, importantly, quantify the associated uncertainty that allows a sequential search of query points that balance exploitation-exploration. Gaussian process (GP) has been a primary candidate for the surrogate model, thanks to its Bayesian-principled uncertainty quantification power and modeling flexibility. However, its challenges have also spurred an array of alternatives whose convergence properties could be more opaque. Motivated by these, we study in this paper an axiomatic framework that elicits the minimal requirements to guarantee black-box optimization convergence that could apply beyond GP-related methods. Moreover, we leverage the design freedom in our framework, which we call Pseudo-Bayesian Optimization, to construct empirically superior algorithms. In particular, we show how using simple local regression, and a suitable "randomized prior" construction to quantify uncertainty, not only guarantees convergence but also consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks in examples ranging from high-dimensional synthetic experiments to realistic hyperparameter tuning and robotic applications.

Hybrid Random Features

We propose a new class of random feature methods for linearizing softmax and Gaussian kernels called hybrid random features (HRFs) that automatically adapt the quality of kernel estimation to provide most accurate approximation in the defined regions of interest. Special instantiations of HRFs lead to well-known methods such as trigonometric (Rahimi and Recht, 2007) or (recently introduced in the context of linear-attention Transformers) positive random features (Choromanski et al., 2021). By generalizing Bochner's Theorem for softmax/Gaussian kernels and leveraging random features for compositional kernels, the HRF-mechanism provides strong theoretical guarantees - unbiased approximation and strictly smaller worst-case relative errors than its counterparts. We conduct exhaustive empirical evaluation of HRF ranging from pointwise kernel estimation experiments, through tests on data admitting clustering structure to benchmarking implicit-attention Transformers (also for downstream Robotics applications), demonstrating its quality in a wide spectrum of machine learning problems.

Graph Kernel Attention Transformers

We introduce a new class of graph neural networks (GNNs), by combining several concepts that were so far studied independently - graph kernels, attention-based networks with structural priors and more recently, efficient Transformers architectures applying small memory footprint implicit attention methods via low rank decomposition techniques. The goal of the paper is twofold. Proposed by us Graph Kernel Attention Transformers (or GKATs) are much more expressive than SOTA GNNs as capable of modeling longer-range dependencies within a single layer. Consequently, they can use more shallow architecture design. Furthermore, GKAT attention layers scale linearly rather than quadratically in the number of nodes of the input graphs, even when those graphs are dense, requiring less compute than their regular graph attention counterparts. They achieve it by applying new classes of graph kernels admitting random feature map decomposition via random walks on graphs. As a byproduct of the introduced techniques, we obtain a new class of learnable graph sketches, called graphots, compactly encoding topological graph properties as well as nodes' features. We conducted exhaustive empirical comparison of our method with nine different GNN classes on tasks ranging from motif detection through social network classification to bioinformatics challenges, showing consistent gains coming from GKATs.

Calibrating Over-Parametrized Simulation Models: A Framework via Eligibility Set

Stochastic simulation aims to compute output performance for complex models that lack analytical tractability. To ensure accurate prediction, the model needs to be calibrated and validated against real data. Conventional methods approach these tasks by assessing the model-data match via simple hypothesis tests or distance minimization in an ad hoc fashion, but they can encounter challenges arising from non-identifiability and high dimensionality. In this paper, we investigate a framework to develop calibration schemes that satisfy rigorous frequentist statistical guarantees, via a basic notion that we call eligibility set designed to bypass non-identifiability via a set-based estimation. We investigate a feature extraction-then-aggregation approach to construct these sets that target at multivariate outputs. We demonstrate our methodology on several numerical examples, including an application to calibration of a limit order book market simulator (ABIDES).

Learning Prediction Intervals for Regression: Generalization and Calibration

We study the generation of prediction intervals in regression for uncertainty quantification. This task can be formalized as an empirical constrained optimization problem that minimizes the average interval width while maintaining the coverage accuracy across data. We strengthen the existing literature by studying two aspects of this empirical optimization. First is a general learning theory to characterize the optimality-feasibility tradeoff that encompasses Lipschitz continuity and VC-subgraph classes, which are exemplified in regression trees and neural networks. Second is a calibration machinery and the corresponding statistical theory to optimally select the regularization parameter that manages this tradeoff, which bypasses the overfitting issues in previous approaches in coverage attainment. We empirically demonstrate the strengths of our interval generation and calibration algorithms in terms of testing performances compared to existing benchmarks.

Interpret-able feedback for AutoML systems

Automated machine learning (AutoML) systems aim to enable training machine learning (ML) models for non-ML experts. A shortcoming of these systems is that when they fail to produce a model with high accuracy, the user has no path to improve the model other than hiring a data scientist or learning ML -- this defeats the purpose of AutoML and limits its adoption. We introduce an interpretable data feedback solution for AutoML. Our solution suggests new data points for the user to label (without requiring a pool of unlabeled data) to improve the model's accuracy. Our solution analyzes how features influence the prediction among all ML models in an AutoML ensemble, and we suggest more data samples from feature ranges that have high variance in such analysis. Our evaluation shows that our solution can improve the accuracy of AutoML by 7-8% and significantly outperforms popular active learning solutions in data efficiency, all the while providing the added benefit of being interpretable.

Demystifying Orthogonal Monte Carlo and Beyond

Orthogonal Monte Carlo (OMC) is a very effective sampling algorithm imposing structural geometric conditions (orthogonality) on samples for variance reduction. Due to its simplicity and superior performance as compared to its Quasi Monte Carlo counterparts, OMC is used in a wide spectrum of challenging machine learning applications ranging from scalable kernel methods to predictive recurrent neural networks, generative models and reinforcement learning. However theoretical understanding of the method remains very limited. In this paper we shed new light on the theoretical principles behind OMC, applying theory of negatively dependent random variables to obtain several new concentration results. We also propose a novel extensions of the method leveraging number theory techniques and particle algorithms, called Near-Orthogonal Monte Carlo (NOMC). We show that NOMC is the first algorithm consistently outperforming OMC in applications ranging from kernel methods to approximating distances in probabilistic metric spaces.