E4GEN: Event-level Explainable Extreme-Enhanced Time-series Generation

Generating realistic time series is essential for scientific research and real-world applications. However, existing methods often emphasize overall distributional fidelity while failing to faithfully capture extreme events. To advance existing research, we propose E4GEN, an explainable diffusion framework for extreme event-aware time-series generation. E4GEN provides systematic insights into when, what, and how to control extreme-event generation through three key components. First, E-Activator learns the dataset-adaptive extreme-control signal activation step during the denoising process without interfering with regular temporal components, including trend and seasonality. Second, E-Predictor determines what control signal to enforce through Self-Driven Semantic Prediction, where each sample derives its own control signal by inferring latent extreme-event information during generation. It also includes a novel Data-Conditioned Training, Noise-Initiated Sampling mechanism to address the issue of unavailable training labels. Third, E-Control specifies how to control extreme-event generation through a trainable Extreme Control Network, which transforms the semantic control signal into layer-wise signals and injects it into the denoising process. We evaluate E4GEN on six datasets with 17 metrics, and extensive experiments show that E4GEN outperforms state-of-the-art models across multiple dimensions, including overall fidelity, extreme-event fidelity, and downstream utility.

EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

Energy consumption prediction is essential for efficient grid management, demand-side optimization, and sustainable energy planning. Although advanced machine learning methods have been employed for better prediction performance, existing works have two key limitations: (1) they usually formulate this task as a purely time-series prediction problem without explicitly modeling the spatial dependencies among different regions, and (2) they fail to provide reliable predictions with uncertainty estimates under abnormal situations such as extreme weather events. To advance existing research, we propose EnergyMamba, an uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal learning framework for accurate and reliable energy consumption prediction, which comprises two key components: (i) a novel Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model (GE-Mamba) that injects spatial context learned from the grid topology into the temporal dynamics, enabling coupled spatiotemporal modeling, and (ii) an Adaptive Sequential Conformalized Quantile Regression (AS-CQR) module, which includes locally adaptive normalization and an online feedback mechanism to dynamically calibrate prediction intervals under potential distribution shifts. We evaluate EnergyMamba on four large-scale real-world datasets from Florida, New York, and California. Results show EnergyMamba achieves around 5% improvement in prediction accuracy and 6% improvement in uncertainty quantification over 15 state-of-the-art baselines.

Ensemble Score Filtering for Real-Data Energy Consumption Forecast Correction

Accurate estimation and forecasting of energy consumption are important for power-system operation, planning, and demand-side management. In practice, however, complete and timely measurements may not always be available, and the observed data can be partial, noisy, or delayed. This motivates the use of learned forecasting models for predicting the evolving consumption state, together with data assimilation methods for sequential forecast correction. In this work, we study a high-dimensional data assimilation problem for real energy-consumption data. \modeltext{The forward prediction is supplied by a pretrained black-box spatio-temporal forecasting model, which is treated as the state propagator in the filtering procedure.} We employ the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) to assimilate partial and noisy observations and to correct the forecast trajectory over time. The EnSF uses score-based diffusion models to approximate filtering distributions and avoids retraining neural-network score models during assimilation by using a closed-form score representation and Monte Carlo approximation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that open-loop propagation of the learned forecasting model can become unreliable over long horizons, while EnSF-based correction substantially improves state estimation. Comparisons with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) further show that EnSF provides stronger correction under the nonlinear observation setting considered in this work.

SynHAT: A Two-stage Coarse-to-Fine Diffusion Framework for Synthesizing Human Activity Traces

Human activity traces (HATs) are critical for many applications, including human mobility modeling and point-of-interest (POI) recommendation. However, growing privacy concerns have severely limited access to authentic large-scale HAT datasets. Recent advances in generative AI provide new opportunities to synthesize realistic and privacy-preserving HATs for such applications. Yet two major challenges remain: (i) HATs are highly irregular and dynamic, with long and varying time intervals, making it difficult to capture their complex spatio-temporal dependencies and underlying distributions; and (ii) generative models are often computationally expensive, making long-term, fine-grained HAT synthesis inefficient. To address these challenges, we propose SynHAT, a computationally efficient coarse-to-fine HAT synthesis framework built on a novel spatio-temporal denoising diffusion model. In Stage 1, we develop Coarse-HADiff, which models the overall spatio-temporal dependencies of coarse-grained latent spatio-temporal traces. It incorporates a novel Latent Spatio-Temporal U-Net with dual Drift-Jitter branches to jointly model smooth spatial transitions and temporal variations during denoising. In Stage 2, we introduce a three-step pipeline consisting of Behavior Pattern Extraction, Fine-HADiff, which shares the same architecture as Coarse-HADiff, and Semantic Alignment to generate fine-grained latent spatio-temporal traces from the Stage 1 outputs. We extensively evaluate SynHAT in terms of data fidelity, utility, privacy, robustness, and scalability. Experiments on real-world HAT datasets from four cities across three countries show that SynHAT substantially outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving 52% and 33% improvements on spatial and temporal metrics, respectively.

UrbanHuRo: A Two-Layer Human-Robot Collaboration Framework for the Joint Optimization of Heterogeneous Urban Services

In the vision of smart cities, technologies are being developed to enhance the efficiency of urban services and improve residents' quality of life. However, most existing research focuses on optimizing individual services in isolation, without adequately considering reciprocal interactions among heterogeneous urban services that could yield higher efficiency and improved resource utilization. For example, human couriers could collect traffic and air quality data along their delivery routes, while sensing robots could assist with on-demand delivery during peak hours, enhancing both sensing coverage and delivery efficiency. However, the joint optimization of different urban services is challenging due to potentially conflicting objectives and the need for real-time coordination in dynamic environments. In this paper, we propose UrbanHuRo, a two-layer human-robot collaboration framework for joint optimization of heterogeneous urban services, demonstrated through crowdsourced delivery and urban sensing. UrbanHuRo includes two key designs: (i) a scalable distributed MapReduce-based K-submodular maximization module for efficient order dispatch, and (ii) a deep submodular reward reinforcement learning algorithm for sensing route planning. Experimental evaluations on real-world datasets from a food delivery platform demonstrate that UrbanHuRo improves sensing coverage by 29.7% and courier income by 39.2% on average in most settings, while also significantly reducing the number of overdue orders.

HealthMamba: An Uncertainty-aware Spatiotemporal Graph State Space Model for Effective and Reliable Healthcare Facility Visit Prediction

Healthcare facility visit prediction is essential for optimizing healthcare resource allocation and informing public health policy. Despite advanced machine learning methods being employed for better prediction performance, existing works usually formulate this task as a time-series forecasting problem without considering the intrinsic spatial dependencies of different types of healthcare facilities, and they also fail to provide reliable predictions under abnormal situations such as public emergencies. To advance existing research, we propose HealthMamba, an uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal framework for accurate and reliable healthcare facility visit prediction. HealthMamba comprises three key components: (i) a Unified Spatiotemporal Context Encoder that fuses heterogeneous static and dynamic information, (ii) a novel Graph State Space Model called GraphMamba for hierarchical spatiotemporal modeling, and (iii) a comprehensive uncertainty quantification module integrating three uncertainty quantification mechanisms for reliable prediction. We evaluate HealthMamba on four large-scale real-world datasets from California, New York, Texas, and Florida. Results show HealthMamba achieves around 6.0% improvement in prediction accuracy and 3.5% improvement in uncertainty quantification over state-of-the-art baselines.

TrustEnergy: A Unified Framework for Accurate and Reliable User-level Energy Usage Prediction

Energy usage prediction is important for various real-world applications, including grid management, infrastructure planning, and disaster response. Although a plethora of deep learning approaches have been proposed to perform this task, most of them either overlook the essential spatial correlations across households or fail to scale to individualized prediction, making them less effective for accurate fine-grained user-level prediction. In addition, due to the dynamic and uncertain nature of energy usage caused by various factors such as extreme weather events, quantifying uncertainty for reliable prediction is also significant, but it has not been fully explored in existing work. In this paper, we propose a unified framework called TrustEnergy for accurate and reliable user-level energy usage prediction. There are two key technical components in TrustEnergy, (i) a Hierarchical Spatiotemporal Representation module to efficiently capture both macro and micro energy usage patterns with a novel memory-augmented spatiotemporal graph neural network, and (ii) an innovative Sequential Conformalized Quantile Regression module to dynamically adjust uncertainty bounds to ensure valid prediction intervals over time, without making strong assumptions about the underlying data distribution. We implement and evaluate our TrustEnergy framework by working with an electricity provider in Florida, and the results show our TrustEnergy can achieve a 5.4% increase in prediction accuracy and 5.7% improvement in uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

GeoGen: A Two-stage Coarse-to-Fine Framework for Fine-grained Synthetic Location-based Social Network Trajectory Generation

Location-Based Social Network (LBSN) check-in trajectory data are important for many practical applications, like POI recommendation, advertising, and pandemic intervention. However, the high collection costs and ever-increasing privacy concerns prevent us from accessing large-scale LBSN trajectory data. The recent advances in synthetic data generation provide us with a new opportunity to achieve this, which utilizes generative AI to generate synthetic data that preserves the characteristics of real data while ensuring privacy protection. However, generating synthetic LBSN check-in trajectories remains challenging due to their spatially discrete, temporally irregular nature and the complex spatio-temporal patterns caused by sparse activities and uncertain human mobility. To address this challenge, we propose GeoGen, a two-stage coarse-to-fine framework for large-scale LBSN check-in trajectory generation. In the first stage, we reconstruct spatially continuous, temporally regular latent movement sequences from the original LBSN check-in trajectories and then design a Sparsity-aware Spatio-temporal Diffusion model (S$^2$TDiff) with an efficient denosing network to learn their underlying behavioral patterns. In the second stage, we design Coarse2FineNet, a Transformer-based Seq2Seq architecture equipped with a dynamic context fusion mechanism in the encoder and a multi-task hybrid-head decoder, which generates fine-grained LBSN trajectories based on coarse-grained latent movement sequences by modeling semantic relevance and behavioral uncertainty. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets show that GeoGen excels state-of-the-art models for both fidelity and utility evaluation, e.g., it increases over 69% and 55% in distance and radius metrics on the FS-TKY dataset.

A First Look at Predictability and Explainability of Pre-request Passenger Waiting Time in Ridesharing Systems

Passenger waiting time prediction plays a critical role in enhancing both ridesharing user experience and platform efficiency. While most existing research focuses on post-request waiting time prediction with knowing the matched driver information, pre-request waiting time prediction (i.e., before submitting a ride request and without matching a driver) is also important, as it enables passengers to plan their trips more effectively and enhance the experience of both passengers and drivers. However, it has not been fully studied by existing works. In this paper, we take the first step toward understanding the predictability and explainability of pre-request passenger waiting time in ridesharing systems. Particularly, we conduct an in-depth data-driven study to investigate the impact of demand&supply dynamics on passenger waiting time. Based on this analysis and feature engineering, we propose FiXGBoost, a novel feature interaction-based XGBoost model designed to predict waiting time without knowing the assigned driver information. We further perform an importance analysis to quantify the contribution of each factor. Experiments on a large-scale real-world ridesharing dataset including over 30 million trip records show that our FiXGBoost can achieve a good performance for pre-request passenger waiting time prediction with high explainability.

UQGNN: Uncertainty Quantification of Graph Neural Networks for Multivariate Spatiotemporal Prediction

Spatiotemporal prediction plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications such as urban planning, transportation optimization, disaster response, and pandemic control. In recent years, researchers have made significant progress by developing advanced deep learning models for spatiotemporal prediction. However, most existing models are deterministic, i.e., predicting only the expected mean values without quantifying uncertainty, leading to potentially unreliable and inaccurate outcomes. While recent studies have introduced probabilistic models to quantify uncertainty, they typically focus on a single phenomenon (e.g., taxi, bike, crime, or traffic crashes), thereby neglecting the inherent correlations among heterogeneous urban phenomena. To address the research gap, we propose a novel Graph Neural Network with Uncertainty Quantification, termed UQGNN for multivariate spatiotemporal prediction. UQGNN introduces two key innovations: (i) an Interaction-aware Spatiotemporal Embedding Module that integrates a multivariate diffusion graph convolutional network and an interaction-aware temporal convolutional network to effectively capture complex spatial and temporal interaction patterns, and (ii) a multivariate probabilistic prediction module designed to estimate both expected mean values and associated uncertainties. Extensive experiments on four real-world multivariate spatiotemporal datasets from Shenzhen, New York City, and Chicago demonstrate that UQGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification. For example, on the Shenzhen dataset, UQGNN achieves a 5% improvement in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.