Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Time Series: A Survey

Time series frequently manifest distribution shifts, diverse latent features, and non-stationary learning dynamics, particularly in open and evolving environments. These characteristics pose significant challenges for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. While substantial progress has been made, a systematic synthesis of advancements remains lacking. To address this gap, we present the first comprehensive review of OOD generalization methodologies for time series, organized to delineate the field's evolutionary trajectory and contemporary research landscape. We organize our analysis across three foundational dimensions: data distribution, representation learning, and OOD evaluation. For each dimension, we present several popular algorithms in detail. Furthermore, we highlight key application scenarios, emphasizing their real-world impact. Finally, we identify persistent challenges and propose future research directions. A detailed summary of the methods reviewed for the generalization of OOD in time series can be accessed at https://tsood-generalization.com.

Variational Bayesian Personalized Ranking

Recommendation systems have found extensive applications across diverse domains. However, the training data available typically comprises implicit feedback, manifested as user clicks and purchase behaviors, rather than explicit declarations of user preferences. This type of training data presents three main challenges for accurate ranking prediction: First, the unobservable nature of user preferences makes likelihood function modeling inherently difficult. Second, the resulting false positives (FP) and false negatives (FN) introduce noise into the learning process, disrupting parameter learning. Third, data bias arises as observed interactions tend to concentrate on a few popular items, exacerbating the feedback loop of popularity bias. To address these issues, we propose Variational BPR, a novel and easily implementable learning objective that integrates key components for enhancing collaborative filtering: likelihood optimization, noise reduction, and popularity debiasing. Our approach involves decomposing the pairwise loss under the ELBO-KL framework and deriving its variational lower bound to establish a manageable learning objective for approximate inference. Within this bound, we introduce an attention-based latent interest prototype contrastive mechanism, replacing instance-level contrastive learning, to effectively reduce noise from problematic samples. The process of deriving interest prototypes implicitly incorporates a flexible hard sample mining strategy, capable of simultaneously identifying hard positive and hard negative samples. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this hard sample mining strategy promotes feature distribution uniformity, thereby alleviating popularity bias. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Variational BPR on popular backbone recommendation models. The code and data are available at: https://github.com/liubin06/VariationalBPR

Improving Open-world Continual Learning under the Constraints of Scarce Labeled Data

Open-world continual learning (OWCL) adapts to sequential tasks with open samples, learning knowledge incrementally while preventing forgetting. However, existing OWCL still requires a large amount of labeled data for training, which is often impractical in real-world applications. Given that new categories/entities typically come with limited annotations and are in small quantities, a more realistic situation is OWCL with scarce labeled data, i.e., few-shot training samples. Hence, this paper investigates the problem of open-world few-shot continual learning (OFCL), challenging in (i) learning unbounded tasks without forgetting previous knowledge and avoiding overfitting, (ii) constructing compact decision boundaries for open detection with limited labeled data, and (iii) transferring knowledge about knowns and unknowns and even update the unknowns to knowns once the labels of open samples are learned. In response, we propose a novel OFCL framework that integrates three key components: (1) an instance-wise token augmentation (ITA) that represents and enriches sample representations with additional knowledge, (2) a margin-based open boundary (MOB) that supports open detection with new tasks emerge over time, and (3) an adaptive knowledge space (AKS) that endows unknowns with knowledge for the updating from unknowns to knowns. Finally, extensive experiments show the proposed OFCL framework outperforms all baselines remarkably with practical importance and reproducibility. The source code is released at https://github.com/liyj1201/OFCL.

Order-Robust Class Incremental Learning: Graph-Driven Dynamic Similarity Grouping

Class Incremental Learning (CIL) requires a model to continuously learn new classes without forgetting previously learned ones. While recent studies have significantly alleviated the problem of catastrophic forgetting (CF), more and more research reveals that the order in which classes appear have significant influences on CIL models. Specifically, prioritizing the learning of classes with lower similarity will enhance the model's generalization performance and its ability to mitigate forgetting. Hence, it is imperative to develop an order-robust class incremental learning model that maintains stable performance even when faced with varying levels of class similarity in different orders. In response, we first provide additional theoretical analysis, which reveals that when the similarity among a group of classes is lower, the model demonstrates increased robustness to the class order. Then, we introduce a novel \textbf{G}raph-\textbf{D}riven \textbf{D}ynamic \textbf{S}imilarity \textbf{G}rouping (\textbf{GDDSG}) method, which leverages a graph coloring algorithm for class-based similarity grouping. The proposed approach trains independent CIL models for each group of classes, ultimately combining these models to facilitate joint prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that our method effectively addresses the issue of class order sensitivity while achieving optimal performance in both model accuracy and anti-forgetting capability. Our code is available at https://github.com/AIGNLAI/GDDSG.

Exploring Open-world Continual Learning with Knowns-Unknowns Knowledge Transfer

Open-World Continual Learning (OWCL) is a challenging paradigm where models must incrementally learn new knowledge without forgetting while operating under an open-world assumption. This requires handling incomplete training data and recognizing unknown samples during inference. However, existing OWCL methods often treat open detection and continual learning as separate tasks, limiting their ability to integrate open-set detection and incremental classification in OWCL. Moreover, current approaches primarily focus on transferring knowledge from known samples, neglecting the insights derived from unknown/open samples. To address these limitations, we formalize four distinct OWCL scenarios and conduct comprehensive empirical experiments to explore potential challenges in OWCL. Our findings reveal a significant interplay between the open detection of unknowns and incremental classification of knowns, challenging a widely held assumption that unknown detection and known classification are orthogonal processes. Building on our insights, we propose \textbf{HoliTrans} (Holistic Knowns-Unknowns Knowledge Transfer), a novel OWCL framework that integrates nonlinear random projection (NRP) to create a more linearly separable embedding space and distribution-aware prototypes (DAPs) to construct an adaptive knowledge space. Particularly, our HoliTrans effectively supports knowledge transfer for both known and unknown samples while dynamically updating representations of open samples during OWCL. Extensive experiments across various OWCL scenarios demonstrate that HoliTrans outperforms 22 competitive baselines, bridging the gap between OWCL theory and practice and providing a robust, scalable framework for advancing open-world learning paradigms.

Beyond Fixed Variables: Expanding-variate Time Series Forecasting via Flat Scheme and Spatio-temporal Focal Learning

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has long been a key research focus. Traditionally, these studies assume a fixed number of variables, but in real-world applications, Cyber-Physical Systems often expand as new sensors are deployed, increasing variables in MTSF. In light of this, we introduce a novel task, Expanding-variate Time Series Forecasting (EVTSF). This task presents unique challenges, specifically (1) handling inconsistent data shapes caused by adding new variables, and (2) addressing imbalanced spatio-temporal learning, where expanding variables have limited observed data due to the necessity for timely operation. To address these challenges, we propose STEV, a flexible spatio-temporal forecasting framework. STEV includes a new Flat Scheme to tackle the inconsistent data shape issue, which extends the graph-based spatio-temporal modeling architecture into 1D space by flattening the 2D samples along the variable dimension, making the model variable-scale-agnostic while still preserving dynamic spatial correlations through a holistic graph. We introduce a novel Spatio-temporal Focal Learning strategy that incorporates a negative filter to resolve potential conflicts between contrastive learning and graph representation, and a focal contrastive loss as its core to guide the framework to focus on optimizing the expanding variables. We benchmark EVTSF performance using three real-world datasets and compare it against three potential solutions employing SOTA MTSF models tailored for EVSTF. Experimental results show that STEV significantly outperforms its competitors, particularly on expanding variables. Notably, STEV, with only 5% of observations from the expanding period, is on par with SOTA MTSF models trained with complete observations. Further exploration of various expanding strategies underscores the generalizability of STEV in real-world applications.

A New Perspective on Privacy Protection in Federated Learning with Granular-Ball Computing

Federated Learning (FL) facilitates collaborative model training while prioritizing privacy by avoiding direct data sharing. However, most existing articles attempt to address challenges within the model's internal parameters and corresponding outputs, while neglecting to solve them at the input level. To address this gap, we propose a novel framework called Granular-Ball Federated Learning (GrBFL) for image classification. GrBFL diverges from traditional methods that rely on the finest-grained input data. Instead, it segments images into multiple regions with optimal coarse granularity, which are then reconstructed into a graph structure. We designed a two-dimensional binary search segmentation algorithm based on variance constraints for GrBFL, which effectively removes redundant information while preserving key representative features. Extensive theoretical analysis and experiments demonstrate that GrBFL not only safeguards privacy and enhances efficiency but also maintains robust utility, consistently outperforming other state-of-the-art FL methods. The code is available at https://github.com/AIGNLAI/GrBFL.

Enhancing Multi-Robot Semantic Navigation Through Multimodal Chain-of-Thought Score Collaboration

Understanding how humans cooperatively utilize semantic knowledge to explore unfamiliar environments and decide on navigation directions is critical for house service multi-robot systems. Previous methods primarily focused on single-robot centralized planning strategies, which severely limited exploration efficiency. Recent research has considered decentralized planning strategies for multiple robots, assigning separate planning models to each robot, but these approaches often overlook communication costs. In this work, we propose Multimodal Chain-of-Thought Co-Navigation (MCoCoNav), a modular approach that utilizes multimodal Chain-of-Thought to plan collaborative semantic navigation for multiple robots. MCoCoNav combines visual perception with Vision Language Models (VLMs) to evaluate exploration value through probabilistic scoring, thus reducing time costs and achieving stable outputs. Additionally, a global semantic map is used as a communication bridge, minimizing communication overhead while integrating observational results. Guided by scores that reflect exploration trends, robots utilize this map to assess whether to explore new frontier points or revisit history nodes. Experiments on HM3D_v0.2 and MP3D demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/FrankZxShen/MCoCoNav.git.

Addressing Spatial-Temporal Data Heterogeneity in Federated Continual Learning via Tail Anchor

Federated continual learning (FCL) allows each client to continually update its knowledge from task streams, enhancing the applicability of federated learning in real-world scenarios. However, FCL needs to address not only spatial data heterogeneity between clients but also temporal data heterogeneity between tasks. In this paper, empirical experiments demonstrate that such input-level heterogeneity significantly affects the model's internal parameters and outputs, leading to severe spatial-temporal catastrophic forgetting of local and previous knowledge. To this end, we propose Federated Tail Anchor (FedTA) to mix trainable Tail Anchor with the frozen output features to adjust their position in the feature space, thereby overcoming parameter-forgetting and output-forgetting. Moreover, three novel components are also included in FedTA: Input Enhancement for improving the performance of pre-trained models on downstream tasks; Selective Input Knowledge Fusion for fusion of heterogeneous local knowledge on the server side; and Best Global Prototype Selection for finding the best anchor point for each class in the feature space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FedTA not only outperforms existing FCL methods but also effectively preserves the relative positions of features, remaining unaffected by spatial and temporal changes.

Multi-Granularity Open Intent Classification via Adaptive Granular-Ball Decision Boundary

Open intent classification is critical for the development of dialogue systems, aiming to accurately classify known intents into their corresponding classes while identifying unknown intents. Prior boundary-based methods assumed known intents fit within compact spherical regions, focusing on coarse-grained representation and precise spherical decision boundaries. However, these assumptions are often violated in practical scenarios, making it difficult to distinguish known intent classes from unknowns using a single spherical boundary. To tackle these issues, we propose a Multi-granularity Open intent classification method via adaptive Granular-Ball decision boundary (MOGB). Our MOGB method consists of two modules: representation learning and decision boundary acquiring. To effectively represent the intent distribution, we design a hierarchical representation learning method. This involves iteratively alternating between adaptive granular-ball clustering and nearest sub-centroid classification to capture fine-grained semantic structures within known intent classes. Furthermore, multi-granularity decision boundaries are constructed for open intent classification by employing granular-balls with varying centroids and radii. Extensive experiments conducted on three public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.