Political-LLM: Large Language Models in Political Science

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in political science tasks such as election prediction, sentiment analysis, policy impact assessment, and misinformation detection. Meanwhile, the need to systematically understand how LLMs can further revolutionize the field also becomes urgent. In this work, we--a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and political science--present the first principled framework termed Political-LLM to advance the comprehensive understanding of integrating LLMs into computational political science. Specifically, we first introduce a fundamental taxonomy classifying the existing explorations into two perspectives: political science and computational methodologies. In particular, from the political science perspective, we highlight the role of LLMs in automating predictive and generative tasks, simulating behavior dynamics, and improving causal inference through tools like counterfactual generation; from a computational perspective, we introduce advancements in data preparation, fine-tuning, and evaluation methods for LLMs that are tailored to political contexts. We identify key challenges and future directions, emphasizing the development of domain-specific datasets, addressing issues of bias and fairness, incorporating human expertise, and redefining evaluation criteria to align with the unique requirements of computational political science. Political-LLM seeks to serve as a guidebook for researchers to foster an informed, ethical, and impactful use of Artificial Intelligence in political science. Our online resource is available at: http://political-llm.org/.

Crowd-Calibrator: Can Annotator Disagreement Inform Calibration in Subjective Tasks?

Subjective tasks in NLP have been mostly relegated to objective standards, where the gold label is decided by taking the majority vote. This obfuscates annotator disagreement and the inherent uncertainty of the label. We argue that subjectivity should factor into model decisions and play a direct role via calibration under a selective prediction setting. Specifically, instead of calibrating confidence purely from the model's perspective, we calibrate models for subjective tasks based on crowd worker agreement. Our method, Crowd-Calibrator, models the distance between the distribution of crowd worker labels and the model's own distribution over labels to inform whether the model should abstain from a decision. On two highly subjective tasks, hate speech detection and natural language inference, our experiments show Crowd-Calibrator either outperforms or achieves competitive performance with existing selective prediction baselines. Our findings highlight the value of bringing human decision-making into model predictions.

Out-of-Distribution Detection through Soft Clustering with Non-Negative Kernel Regression

As language models become more general purpose, increased attention needs to be paid to detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) instances, i.e., those not belonging to any of the distributions seen during training. Existing methods for detecting OOD data are computationally complex and storage-intensive. We propose a novel soft clustering approach for OOD detection based on non-negative kernel regression. Our approach greatly reduces computational and space complexities (up to 11x improvement in inference time and 87% reduction in storage requirements) and outperforms existing approaches by up to 4 AUROC points on four different benchmarks. We also introduce an entropy-constrained version of our algorithm, which leads to further reductions in storage requirements (up to 97% lower than comparable approaches) while retaining competitive performance. Our soft clustering approach for OOD detection highlights its potential for detecting tail-end phenomena in extreme-scale data settings.

Compare without Despair: Reliable Preference Evaluation with Generation Separability

Human evaluation of generated language through pairwise preference judgments is pervasive. However, under common scenarios, such as when generations from a model pair are very similar, or when stochastic decoding results in large variations in generations, it results in inconsistent preference ratings. We address these challenges by introducing a meta-evaluation measure, separability, which estimates how suitable a test instance is for pairwise preference evaluation. For a candidate test instance, separability samples multiple generations from a pair of models, and measures how distinguishable the two sets of generations are. Our experiments show that instances with high separability values yield more consistent preference ratings from both human- and auto-raters. Further, the distribution of separability allows insights into which test benchmarks are more valuable for comparing models. Finally, we incorporate separability into ELO ratings, accounting for how suitable each test instance might be for reliably ranking LLMs. Overall, separability has implications for consistent, efficient and robust preference evaluation of LLMs with both human- and auto-raters.

OATH-Frames: Characterizing Online Attitudes Towards Homelessness with LLM Assistants

Warning: Contents of this paper may be upsetting. Public attitudes towards key societal issues, expressed on online media, are of immense value in policy and reform efforts, yet challenging to understand at scale. We study one such social issue: homelessness in the U.S., by leveraging the remarkable capabilities of large language models to assist social work experts in analyzing millions of posts from Twitter. We introduce a framing typology: Online Attitudes Towards Homelessness (OATH) Frames: nine hierarchical frames capturing critiques, responses and perceptions. We release annotations with varying degrees of assistance from language models, with immense benefits in scaling: 6.5x speedup in annotation time while only incurring a 3 point F1 reduction in performance with respect to the domain experts. Our experiments demonstrate the value of modeling OATH-Frames over existing sentiment and toxicity classifiers. Our large-scale analysis with predicted OATH-Frames on 2.4M posts on homelessness reveal key trends in attitudes across states, time periods and vulnerable populations, enabling new insights on the issue. Our work provides a general framework to understand nuanced public attitudes at scale, on issues beyond homelessness.

Annotating FrameNet via Structure-Conditioned Language Generation

Despite the remarkable generative capabilities of language models in producing naturalistic language, their effectiveness on explicit manipulation and generation of linguistic structures remain understudied. In this paper, we investigate the task of generating new sentences preserving a given semantic structure, following the FrameNet formalism. We propose a framework to produce novel frame-semantically annotated sentences following an overgenerate-and-filter approach. Our results show that conditioning on rich, explicit semantic information tends to produce generations with high human acceptance, under both prompting and finetuning. Our generated frame-semantic structured annotations are effective at training data augmentation for frame-semantic role labeling in low-resource settings; however, we do not see benefits under higher resource settings. Our study concludes that while generating high-quality, semantically rich data might be within reach, the downstream utility of such generations remains to be seen, highlighting the outstanding challenges with automating linguistic annotation tasks.

Logits of API-Protected LLMs Leak Proprietary Information

The commercialization of large language models (LLMs) has led to the common practice of high-level API-only access to proprietary models. In this work, we show that even with a conservative assumption about the model architecture, it is possible to learn a surprisingly large amount of non-public information about an API-protected LLM from a relatively small number of API queries (e.g., costing under $1,000 for OpenAI's gpt-3.5-turbo). Our findings are centered on one key observation: most modern LLMs suffer from a softmax bottleneck, which restricts the model outputs to a linear subspace of the full output space. We show that this lends itself to a model image or a model signature which unlocks several capabilities with affordable cost: efficiently discovering the LLM's hidden size, obtaining full-vocabulary outputs, detecting and disambiguating different model updates, identifying the source LLM given a single full LLM output, and even estimating the output layer parameters. Our empirical investigations show the effectiveness of our methods, which allow us to estimate the embedding size of OpenAI's gpt-3.5-turbo to be about 4,096. Lastly, we discuss ways that LLM providers can guard against these attacks, as well as how these capabilities can be viewed as a feature (rather than a bug) by allowing for greater transparency and accountability.

Closing the Curious Case of Neural Text Degeneration

Despite their ubiquity in language generation, it remains unknown why truncation sampling heuristics like nucleus sampling are so effective. We provide a theoretical explanation for the effectiveness of the truncation sampling by proving that truncation methods that discard tokens below some probability threshold (the most common type of truncation) can guarantee that all sampled tokens have nonzero true probability. However, thresholds are a coarse heuristic, and necessarily discard some tokens with nonzero true probability as well. In pursuit of a more precise sampling strategy, we show that we can leverage a known source of model errors, the softmax bottleneck, to prove that certain tokens have nonzero true probability, without relying on a threshold. Based on our findings, we develop an experimental truncation strategy and the present pilot studies demonstrating the promise of this type of algorithm. Our evaluations show that our method outperforms its threshold-based counterparts under automatic and human evaluation metrics for low-entropy (i.e., close to greedy) open-ended text generation. Our theoretical findings and pilot experiments provide both insight into why truncation sampling works, and make progress toward more expressive sampling algorithms that better surface the generative capabilities of large language models.

Does Video Summarization Require Videos? Quantifying the Effectiveness of Language in Video Summarization

Video summarization remains a huge challenge in computer vision due to the size of the input videos to be summarized. We propose an efficient, language-only video summarizer that achieves competitive accuracy with high data efficiency. Using only textual captions obtained via a zero-shot approach, we train a language transformer model and forego image representations. This method allows us to perform filtration amongst the representative text vectors and condense the sequence. With our approach, we gain explainability with natural language that comes easily for human interpretation and textual summaries of the videos. An ablation study that focuses on modality and data compression shows that leveraging text modality only effectively reduces input data processing while retaining comparable results.

COBRA Frames: Contextual Reasoning about Effects and Harms of Offensive Statements

Warning: This paper contains content that may be offensive or upsetting. Understanding the harms and offensiveness of statements requires reasoning about the social and situational context in which statements are made. For example, the utterance "your English is very good" may implicitly signal an insult when uttered by a white man to a non-white colleague, but uttered by an ESL teacher to their student would be interpreted as a genuine compliment. Such contextual factors have been largely ignored by previous approaches to toxic language detection. We introduce COBRA frames, the first context-aware formalism for explaining the intents, reactions, and harms of offensive or biased statements grounded in their social and situational context. We create COBRACORPUS, a dataset of 33k potentially offensive statements paired with machine-generated contexts and free-text explanations of offensiveness, implied biases, speaker intents, and listener reactions. To study the contextual dynamics of offensiveness, we train models to generate COBRA explanations, with and without access to the context. We find that explanations by context-agnostic models are significantly worse than by context-aware ones, especially in situations where the context inverts the statement's offensiveness (29% accuracy drop). Our work highlights the importance and feasibility of contextualized NLP by modeling social factors.