Prospective Learning: Learning for a Dynamic Future

In real-world applications, the distribution of the data, and our goals, evolve over time. The prevailing theoretical framework for studying machine learning, namely probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, largely ignores time. As a consequence, existing strategies to address the dynamic nature of data and goals exhibit poor real-world performance. This paper develops a theoretical framework called "Prospective Learning" that is tailored for situations when the optimal hypothesis changes over time. In PAC learning, empirical risk minimization (ERM) is known to be consistent. We develop a learner called Prospective ERM, which returns a sequence of predictors that make predictions on future data. We prove that the risk of prospective ERM converges to the Bayes risk under certain assumptions on the stochastic process generating the data. Prospective ERM, roughly speaking, incorporates time as an input in addition to the data. We show that standard ERM as done in PAC learning, without incorporating time, can result in failure to learn when distributions are dynamic. Numerical experiments illustrate that prospective ERM can learn synthetic and visual recognition problems constructed from MNIST and CIFAR-10.

AgentOccam: A Simple Yet Strong Baseline for LLM-Based Web Agents

Autonomy via agents using large language models (LLMs) for personalized, standardized tasks boosts human efficiency. Automating web tasks (like booking hotels within a budget) is increasingly sought after. Fulfilling practical needs, the web agent also serves as an important proof-of-concept example for various agent grounding scenarios, with its success promising advancements in many future applications. Prior research often handcrafts web agent strategies (e.g., prompting templates, multi-agent systems, search methods, etc.) and the corresponding in-context examples, which may not generalize well across all real-world scenarios. On the other hand, there has been limited study on the misalignment between a web agent's observation/action representation and the pre-training data of the LLM it's based on. This discrepancy is especially notable when LLMs are primarily trained for language completion rather than tasks involving embodied navigation actions and symbolic web elements. Our study enhances an LLM-based web agent by simply refining its observation and action space to better align with the LLM's capabilities. This approach enables our base agent to significantly outperform previous methods on a wide variety of web tasks. Specifically, on WebArena, a benchmark featuring general-purpose web interaction tasks, our agent AgentOccam surpasses the previous state-of-the-art and concurrent work by 9.8 (+29.4%) and 5.9 (+15.8%) absolute points respectively, and boosts the success rate by 26.6 points (+161%) over similar plain web agents with its observation and action space alignment. We achieve this without using in-context examples, new agent roles, online feedback or search strategies. AgentOccam's simple design highlights LLMs' impressive zero-shot performance on web tasks, and underlines the critical role of carefully tuning observation and action spaces for LLM-based agents.

4D Metric-Semantic Mapping for Persistent Orchard Monitoring: Method and Dataset

Automated persistent and fine-grained monitoring of orchards at the individual tree or fruit level helps maximize crop yield and optimize resources such as water, fertilizers, and pesticides while preventing agricultural waste. Towards this goal, we present a 4D spatio-temporal metric-semantic mapping method that fuses data from multiple sensors, including LiDAR, RGB camera, and IMU, to monitor the fruits in an orchard across their growth season. A LiDAR-RGB fusion module is designed for 3D fruit tracking and localization, which first segments fruits using a deep neural network and then tracks them using the Hungarian Assignment algorithm. Additionally, the 4D data association module aligns data from different growth stages into a common reference frame and tracks fruits spatio-temporally, providing information such as fruit counts, sizes, and positions. We demonstrate our method's accuracy in 4D metric-semantic mapping using data collected from a real orchard under natural, uncontrolled conditions with seasonal variations. We achieve a 3.1 percent error in total fruit count estimation for over 1790 fruits across 60 apple trees, along with accurate size estimation results with a mean error of 1.1 cm. The datasets, consisting of LiDAR, RGB, and IMU data of five fruit species captured across their growth seasons, along with corresponding ground truth data, will be made publicly available at: https://4d-metric-semantic-mapping.org/

RT-GuIDE: Real-Time Gaussian splatting for Information-Driven Exploration

We propose a framework for active mapping and exploration that leverages Gaussian splatting for constructing information-rich maps. Further, we develop a parallelized motion planning algorithm that can exploit the Gaussian map for real-time navigation. The Gaussian map constructed onboard the robot is optimized for both photometric and geometric quality while enabling real-time situational awareness for autonomy. We show through simulation experiments that our method is competitive with approaches that use alternate information gain metrics, while being orders of magnitude faster to compute. In real-world experiments, our algorithm achieves better map quality (10% higher Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) and 30% higher geometric reconstruction accuracy) than Gaussian maps constructed by traditional exploration baselines. Experiment videos and more details can be found on our project page: https://tyuezhan.github.io/RT_GuIDE/

Constraint-Aware Intent Estimation for Dynamic Human-Robot Object Co-Manipulation

Constraint-aware estimation of human intent is essential for robots to physically collaborate and interact with humans. Further, to achieve fluid collaboration in dynamic tasks intent estimation should be achieved in real-time. In this paper, we present a framework that combines online estimation and control to facilitate robots in interpreting human intentions, and dynamically adjust their actions to assist in dynamic object co-manipulation tasks while considering both robot and human constraints. Central to our approach is the adoption of a Dynamic Systems (DS) model to represent human intent. Such a low-dimensional parameterized model, along with human manipulability and robot kinematic constraints, enables us to predict intent using a particle filter solely based on past motion data and tracking errors. For safe assistive control, we propose a variable impedance controller that adapts the robot's impedance to offer assistance based on the intent estimation confidence from the DS particle filter. We validate our framework on a challenging real-world human-robot co-manipulation task and present promising results over baselines. Our framework represents a significant step forward in physical human-robot collaboration (pHRC), ensuring that robot cooperative interactions with humans are both feasible and effective.

A Confidence Interval for the $\ell_2$ Expected Calibration Error

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the $\ell_2$ Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-$k$ calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Many Perception Tasks are Highly Redundant Functions of their Input Data

We show that many perception tasks, from visual recognition, semantic segmentation, optical flow, depth estimation to vocalization discrimination, are highly redundant functions of their input data. Images or spectrograms, projected into different subspaces, formed by orthogonal bases in pixel, Fourier or wavelet domains, can be used to solve these tasks remarkably well regardless of whether it is the top subspace where data varies the most, some intermediate subspace with moderate variability--or the bottom subspace where data varies the least. This phenomenon occurs because different subspaces have a large degree of redundant information relevant to the task.

NeuroSynth: MRI-Derived Neuroanatomical Generative Models and Associated Dataset of 18,000 Samples

Availability of large and diverse medical datasets is often challenged by privacy and data sharing restrictions. For successful application of machine learning techniques for disease diagnosis, prognosis, and precision medicine, large amounts of data are necessary for model building and optimization. To help overcome such limitations in the context of brain MRI, we present NeuroSynth: a collection of generative models of normative regional volumetric features derived from structural brain imaging. NeuroSynth models are trained on real brain imaging regional volumetric measures from the iSTAGING consortium, which encompasses over 40,000 MRI scans across 13 studies, incorporating covariates such as age, sex, and race. Leveraging NeuroSynth, we produce and offer 18,000 synthetic samples spanning the adult lifespan (ages 22-90 years), alongside the model's capability to generate unlimited data. Experimental results indicate that samples generated from NeuroSynth agree with the distributions obtained from real data. Most importantly, the generated normative data significantly enhance the accuracy of downstream machine learning models on tasks such as disease classification. Data and models are available at: https://huggingface.co/spaces/rongguangw/neuro-synth.

SlideSLAM: Sparse, Lightweight, Decentralized Metric-Semantic SLAM for Multi-Robot Navigation

This paper develops a real-time decentralized metric-semantic Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) approach that leverages a sparse and lightweight object-based representation to enable a heterogeneous robot team to autonomously explore 3D environments featuring indoor, urban, and forested areas without relying on GPS. We use a hierarchical metric-semantic representation of the environment, including high-level sparse semantic maps of object models and low-level voxel maps. We leverage the informativeness and viewpoint invariance of the high-level semantic map to obtain an effective semantics-driven place-recognition algorithm for inter-robot loop closure detection across aerial and ground robots with different sensing modalities. A communication module is designed to track each robot's observations and those of other robots within the communication range. Such observations are then used to construct a merged map. Our framework enables real-time decentralized operations onboard robots, allowing them to opportunistically leverage communication. We integrate and deploy our proposed framework on three types of aerial and ground robots. Extensive experimental results show an average localization error of 0.22 meters in position and -0.16 degrees in orientation, an object mapping F1 score of 0.92, and a communication packet size of merely 2-3 megabytes per kilometer trajectory with 1,000 landmarks. The project website can be found at https://xurobotics.github.io/slideslam/.

Optimal Convex Cover as Collision-free Space Approximation for Trajectory Generation

We propose an online iterative algorithm to find a suitable convex cover to under-approximate the free space for autonomous navigation to delineate Safe Flight Corridors (SFC). The convex cover consists of a set of polytopes such that the union of the polytopes represents obstacle-free space, allowing us to find trajectories for robots that lie within the convex cover. In order to find the SFC that facilitates optimal trajectory generation, we iteratively find overlapping polytopes of maximum volumes that include specified waypoints initialized by a geometric or kinematic planner. Constraints at waypoints appear in two alternating stages of a joint optimization problem, which is solved by a method inspired by the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) with partially distributed variables. We validate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm using a range of parameterized environments and show its applications for two-stage motion planning.