HDT: Hierarchical Discrete Transformer for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Generative models have gained significant attention in multivariate time series forecasting (MTS), particularly due to their ability to generate high-fidelity samples. Forecasting the probability distribution of multivariate time series is a challenging yet practical task. Although some recent attempts have been made to handle this task, two major challenges persist: 1) some existing generative methods underperform in high-dimensional multivariate time series forecasting, which is hard to scale to higher dimensions; 2) the inherent high-dimensional multivariate attributes constrain the forecasting lengths of existing generative models. In this paper, we point out that discrete token representations can model high-dimensional MTS with faster inference time, and forecasting the target with long-term trends of itself can extend the forecasting length with high accuracy. Motivated by this, we propose a vector quantized framework called Hierarchical Discrete Transformer (HDT) that models time series into discrete token representations with l2 normalization enhanced vector quantized strategy, in which we transform the MTS forecasting into discrete tokens generation. To address the limitations of generative models in long-term forecasting, we propose a hierarchical discrete Transformer. This model captures the discrete long-term trend of the target at the low level and leverages this trend as a condition to generate the discrete representation of the target at the high level that introduces the features of the target itself to extend the forecasting length in high-dimensional MTS. Extensive experiments on five popular MTS datasets verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Measuring Diversity in Synthetic Datasets

Large language models (LLMs) are widely adopted to generate synthetic datasets for various natural language processing (NLP) tasks, such as text classification and summarization. However, accurately measuring the diversity of these synthetic datasets-an aspect crucial for robust model performance-remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we introduce DCScore, a novel method for measuring synthetic dataset diversity from a classification perspective. Specifically, DCScore formulates diversity evaluation as a sample classification task, leveraging mutual relationships among samples. We further provide theoretical verification of the diversity-related axioms satisfied by DCScore, highlighting its role as a principled diversity evaluation method. Experimental results on synthetic datasets reveal that DCScore enjoys a stronger correlation with multiple diversity pseudo-truths of evaluated datasets, underscoring its effectiveness. Moreover, both empirical and theoretical evidence demonstrate that DCScore substantially reduces computational costs compared to existing approaches. Code is available at: https://github.com/BlueWhaleLab/DCScore.

Exploring the Generalization Capabilities of AID-based Bi-level Optimization

Bi-level optimization has achieved considerable success in contemporary machine learning applications, especially for given proper hyperparameters. However, due to the two-level optimization structure, commonly, researchers focus on two types of bi-level optimization methods: approximate implicit differentiation (AID)-based and iterative differentiation (ITD)-based approaches. ITD-based methods can be readily transformed into single-level optimization problems, facilitating the study of their generalization capabilities. In contrast, AID-based methods cannot be easily transformed similarly but must stay in the two-level structure, leaving their generalization properties enigmatic. In this paper, although the outer-level function is nonconvex, we ascertain the uniform stability of AID-based methods, which achieves similar results to a single-level nonconvex problem. We conduct a convergence analysis for a carefully chosen step size to maintain stability. Combining the convergence and stability results, we give the generalization ability of AID-based bi-level optimization methods. Furthermore, we carry out an ablation study of the parameters and assess the performance of these methods on real-world tasks. Our experimental results corroborate the theoretical findings, demonstrating the effectiveness and potential applications of these methods.

Online Parallel Multi-Task Relationship Learning via Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers

Online multi-task learning (OMTL) enhances streaming data processing by leveraging the inherent relations among multiple tasks. It can be described as an optimization problem in which a single loss function is defined for multiple tasks. Existing gradient-descent-based methods for this problem might suffer from gradient vanishing and poor conditioning issues. Furthermore, the centralized setting hinders their application to online parallel optimization, which is vital to big data analytics. Therefore, this study proposes a novel OMTL framework based on the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM), a recent breakthrough in optimization suitable for the distributed computing environment because of its decomposable and easy-to-implement nature. The relations among multiple tasks are modeled dynamically to fit the constant changes in an online scenario. In a classical distributed computing architecture with a central server, the proposed OMTL algorithm with the ADMM optimizer outperforms SGD-based approaches in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Because the central server might become a bottleneck when the data scale grows, we further tailor the algorithm to a decentralized setting, so that each node can work by only exchanging information with local neighbors. Experimental results on a synthetic and several real-world datasets demonstrate the efficiency of our methods.

Scaling Diffusion Language Models via Adaptation from Autoregressive Models

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have emerged as a promising new paradigm for text generative modeling, potentially addressing limitations of autoregressive (AR) models. However, current DLMs have been studied at a smaller scale compared to their AR counterparts and lack fair comparison on language modeling benchmarks. Additionally, training diffusion models from scratch at scale remains challenging. Given the prevalence of open-source AR language models, we propose adapting these models to build text diffusion models. We demonstrate connections between AR and diffusion modeling objectives and introduce a simple continual pre-training approach for training diffusion models. Through systematic evaluation on language modeling, reasoning, and commonsense benchmarks, we show that we can convert AR models ranging from 127M to 7B parameters (GPT2 and LLaMA) into diffusion models DiffuGPT and DiffuLLaMA, using less than 200B tokens for training. Our experimental results reveal that these models outperform earlier DLMs and are competitive with their AR counterparts. We release a suite of DLMs (with 127M, 355M, and 7B parameters) capable of generating fluent text, performing in-context learning, filling in the middle without prompt re-ordering, and following instructions \url{https://github.com/HKUNLP/DiffuLLaMA}.

COME: Test-time adaption by Conservatively Minimizing Entropy

Machine learning models must continuously self-adjust themselves for novel data distribution in the open world. As the predominant principle, entropy minimization (EM) has been proven to be a simple yet effective cornerstone in existing test-time adaption (TTA) methods. While unfortunately its fatal limitation (i.e., overconfidence) tends to result in model collapse. For this issue, we propose to Conservatively Minimize the Entropy (COME), which is a simple drop-in replacement of traditional EM to elegantly address the limitation. In essence, COME explicitly models the uncertainty by characterizing a Dirichlet prior distribution over model predictions during TTA. By doing so, COME naturally regularizes the model to favor conservative confidence on unreliable samples. Theoretically, we provide a preliminary analysis to reveal the ability of COME in enhancing the optimization stability by introducing a data-adaptive lower bound on the entropy. Empirically, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on commonly used benchmarks, showing significant improvements in terms of classification accuracy and uncertainty estimation under various settings including standard, life-long and open-world TTA, i.e., up to $34.5\%$ improvement on accuracy and $15.1\%$ on false positive rate.

Probing the Safety Response Boundary of Large Language Models via Unsafe Decoding Path Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are implicit troublemakers. While they provide valuable insights and assist in problem-solving, they can also potentially serve as a resource for malicious activities. Implementing safety alignment could mitigate the risk of LLMs generating harmful responses. We argue that: even when an LLM appears to successfully block harmful queries, there may still be hidden vulnerabilities that could act as ticking time bombs. To identify these underlying weaknesses, we propose to use a cost value model as both a detector and an attacker. Trained on external or self-generated harmful datasets, the cost value model could successfully influence the original safe LLM to output toxic content in decoding process. For instance, LLaMA-2-chat 7B outputs 39.18% concrete toxic content, along with only 22.16% refusals without any harmful suffixes. These potential weaknesses can then be exploited via prompt optimization such as soft prompts on images. We name this decoding strategy: Jailbreak Value Decoding (JVD), emphasizing that seemingly secure LLMs may not be as safe as we initially believe. They could be used to gather harmful data or launch covert attacks.

Self-Introspective Decoding: Alleviating Hallucinations for Large Vision-Language Models

While Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have rapidly advanced in recent years, the prevalent issue known as the `hallucination' problem has emerged as a significant bottleneck, hindering their real-world deployments. Existing methods mitigate this issue mainly from two perspectives: One approach leverages extra knowledge like robust instruction tuning LVLMs with curated datasets or employing auxiliary analysis networks, which inevitable incur additional costs. Another approach, known as contrastive decoding, induces hallucinations by manually disturbing the vision or instruction raw inputs and mitigates them by contrasting the outputs of the disturbed and original LVLMs. However, these approaches rely on empirical holistic input disturbances and double the inference cost. To avoid these issues, we propose a simple yet effective method named Self-Introspective Decoding (SID). Our empirical investigation reveals that pretrained LVLMs can introspectively assess the importance of vision tokens based on preceding vision and text (both instruction and generated) tokens. We develop the Context and Text-aware Token Selection (CT2S) strategy, which preserves only unimportant vision tokens after early layers of LVLMs to adaptively amplify text-informed hallucination during the auto-regressive decoding. This approach ensures that multimodal knowledge absorbed in the early layers induces multimodal contextual rather than aimless hallucinations. Subsequently, the original token logits subtract the amplified vision-and-text association hallucinations, guiding LVLMs decoding faithfully. Extensive experiments illustrate SID generates less-hallucination and higher-quality texts across various metrics, without extra knowledge and much additional computation burdens.

MGCP: A Multi-Grained Correlation based Prediction Network for Multivariate Time Series

Multivariate time series prediction is widely used in daily life, which poses significant challenges due to the complex correlations that exist at multi-grained levels. Unfortunately, the majority of current time series prediction models fail to simultaneously learn the correlations of multivariate time series at multi-grained levels, resulting in suboptimal performance. To address this, we propose a Multi-Grained Correlations-based Prediction (MGCP) Network, which simultaneously considers the correlations at three granularity levels to enhance prediction performance. Specifically, MGCP utilizes Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators and Graph Convolutional Networks to learn the global spatiotemporal correlations and inter-series correlations, enabling the extraction of potential features from multivariate time series at fine-grained and medium-grained levels. Additionally, MGCP employs adversarial training with an attention mechanism-based predictor and conditional discriminator to optimize prediction results at coarse-grained level, ensuring high fidelity between the generated forecast results and the actual data distribution. Finally, we compare MGCP with several state-of-the-art time series prediction algorithms on real-world benchmark datasets, and our results demonstrate the generality and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Variational Bayes for Federated Continual Learning

Federated continual learning (FCL) has received increasing attention due to its potential in handling real-world streaming data, characterized by evolving data distributions and varying client classes over time. The constraints of storage limitations and privacy concerns confine local models to exclusively access the present data within each learning cycle. Consequently, this restriction induces performance degradation in model training on previous data, termed "catastrophic forgetting". However, existing FCL approaches need to identify or know changes in data distribution, which is difficult in the real world. To release these limitations, this paper directs attention to a broader continuous framework. Within this framework, we introduce Federated Bayesian Neural Network (FedBNN), a versatile and efficacious framework employing a variational Bayesian neural network across all clients. Our method continually integrates knowledge from local and historical data distributions into a single model, adeptly learning from new data distributions while retaining performance on historical distributions. We rigorously evaluate FedBNN's performance against prevalent methods in federated learning and continual learning using various metrics. Experimental analyses across diverse datasets demonstrate that FedBNN achieves state-of-the-art results in mitigating forgetting.