NeuralMOVES: A lightweight and microscopic vehicle emission estimation model based on reverse engineering and surrogate learning

The transportation sector significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating accurate emission models to guide mitigation strategies. Despite its field validation and certification, the industry-standard Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) faces challenges related to complexity in usage, high computational demands, and its unsuitability for microscopic real-time applications. To address these limitations, we present NeuralMOVES, a comprehensive suite of high-performance, lightweight surrogate models for vehicle CO2 emissions. Developed based on reverse engineering and Neural Networks, NeuralMOVES achieves a remarkable 6.013% Mean Average Percentage Error relative to MOVES across extensive tests spanning over two million scenarios with diverse trajectories and the factors regarding environments and vehicles. NeuralMOVES is only 2.4 MB, largely condensing the original MOVES and the reverse engineered MOVES into a compact representation, while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, NeuralMOVES significantly enhances accessibility while maintaining the accuracy of MOVES, simplifying CO2 evaluation for transportation analyses and enabling real-time, microscopic applications across diverse scenarios without reliance on complex software or extensive computational resources. Moreover, this paper provides, for the first time, a framework for reverse engineering industrial-grade software tailored specifically to transportation scenarios, going beyond MOVES. The surrogate models are available at https://github.com/edgar-rs/neuralMOVES.

IntersectionZoo: Eco-driving for Benchmarking Multi-Agent Contextual Reinforcement Learning

Despite the popularity of multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) in simulated and two-player applications, its success in messy real-world applications has been limited. A key challenge lies in its generalizability across problem variations, a common necessity for many real-world problems. Contextual reinforcement learning (CRL) formalizes learning policies that generalize across problem variations. However, the lack of standardized benchmarks for multi-agent CRL has hindered progress in the field. Such benchmarks are desired to be based on real-world applications to naturally capture the many open challenges of real-world problems that affect generalization. To bridge this gap, we propose IntersectionZoo, a comprehensive benchmark suite for multi-agent CRL through the real-world application of cooperative eco-driving in urban road networks. The task of cooperative eco-driving is to control a fleet of vehicles to reduce fleet-level vehicular emissions. By grounding IntersectionZoo in a real-world application, we naturally capture real-world problem characteristics, such as partial observability and multiple competing objectives. IntersectionZoo is built on data-informed simulations of 16,334 signalized intersections derived from 10 major US cities, modeled in an open-source industry-grade microscopic traffic simulator. By modeling factors affecting vehicular exhaust emissions (e.g., temperature, road conditions, travel demand), IntersectionZoo provides one million data-driven traffic scenarios. Using these traffic scenarios, we benchmark popular multi-agent RL and human-like driving algorithms and demonstrate that the popular multi-agent RL algorithms struggle to generalize in CRL settings.

Towards Foundation Models for Mixed Integer Linear Programming

Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is essential for modeling complex decision-making problems but faces challenges in computational tractability and requires expert formulation. Current deep learning approaches for MILP focus on specific problem classes and do not generalize to unseen classes. To address this shortcoming, we take a foundation model training approach, where we train a single deep learning model on a diverse set of MILP problems to generalize across problem classes. As existing datasets for MILP lack diversity and volume, we introduce MILP-Evolve, a novel LLM-based evolutionary framework that is capable of generating a large set of diverse MILP classes with an unlimited amount of instances. We study our methodology on three key learning tasks that capture diverse aspects of MILP: (1) integrality gap prediction, (2) learning to branch, and (3) a new task of aligning MILP instances with natural language descriptions. Our empirical results show that models trained on the data generated by MILP-Evolve achieve significant improvements on unseen problems, including MIPLIB benchmarks. Our work highlights the potential of moving towards a foundation model approach for MILP that can generalize to a broad range of MILP applications. We are committed to fully open-sourcing our work to advance further research.

Will Large Language Models be a Panacea to Autonomous Driving?

Artificial intelligence (AI) plays a crucial role in autonomous driving (AD) research, propelling its development towards intelligence and efficiency. Currently, the development of AD technology follows two main technical paths: modularization and end-to-end. Modularization decompose the driving task into modules such as perception, prediction, planning, and control, and train them separately. Due to the inconsistency of training objectives between modules, the integrated effect suffers from bias. End-to-end attempts to address this issue by utilizing a single model that directly maps from sensor data to control signals. This path has limited learning capabilities in a comprehensive set of features and struggles to handle unpredictable long-tail events and complex urban traffic scenarios. In the face of challenges encountered in both paths, many researchers believe that large language models (LLMs) with powerful reasoning capabilities and extensive knowledge understanding may be the solution, expecting LLMs to provide AD systems with deeper levels of understanding and decision-making capabilities. In light of the challenges faced by both paths, many researchers believe that LLMs, with their powerful reasoning abilities and extensive knowledge, could offer a solution. To understand if LLMs could enhance AD, this paper conducts a thorough analysis of the potential applications of LLMs in AD systems, including exploring their optimization strategies in both modular and end-to-end approaches, with a particular focus on how LLMs can tackle the problems and challenges present in current solutions. Furthermore, we discuss an important question: Can LLM-based artificial general intelligence (AGI) be a key to achieve high-level AD? We further analyze the potential limitations and challenges that LLMs may encounter in promoting the development of AD technology.

A Data-Informed Analysis of Scalable Supervision for Safety in Autonomous Vehicle Fleets

Autonomous driving is a highly anticipated approach toward eliminating roadway fatalities. At the same time, the bar for safety is both high and costly to verify. This work considers the role of remotely-located human operators supervising a fleet of autonomous vehicles (AVs) for safety. Such a 'scalable supervision' concept was previously proposed to bridge the gap between still-maturing autonomy technology and the pressure to begin commercial offerings of autonomous driving. The present article proposes DISCES, a framework for Data-Informed Safety-Critical Event Simulation, to investigate the practicality of this concept from a dynamic network loading standpoint. With a focus on the safety-critical context of AVs merging into mixed-autonomy traffic, vehicular arrival processes at 1,097 highway merge points are modeled using microscopic traffic reconstruction with historical data from interstates across three California counties. Combined with a queuing theoretic model, these results characterize the dynamic supervision requirements and thereby scalability of the teleoperation approach. Across all scenarios we find reductions in operator requirements greater than 99% as compared to in-vehicle supervisors for the time period analyzed. The work also demonstrates two methods for reducing these empirical supervision requirements: (i) the use of cooperative connected AVs -- which are shown to produce an average 3.67 orders-of-magnitude system reliability improvement across the scenarios studied -- and (ii) aggregation across larger regions.

Multi-agent Path Finding for Mixed Autonomy Traffic Coordination

In the evolving landscape of urban mobility, the prospective integration of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) with Human-Driven Vehicles (HDVs) presents a complex array of challenges and opportunities for autonomous driving systems. While recent advancements in robotics have yielded Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) algorithms tailored for agent coordination task characterized by simplified kinematics and complete control over agent behaviors, these solutions are inapplicable in mixed-traffic environments where uncontrollable HDVs must coexist and interact with CAVs. Addressing this gap, we propose the Behavior Prediction Kinematic Priority Based Search (BK-PBS), which leverages an offline-trained conditional prediction model to forecast HDV responses to CAV maneuvers, integrating these insights into a Priority Based Search (PBS) where the A* search proceeds over motion primitives to accommodate kinematic constraints. We compare BK-PBS with CAV planning algorithms derived by rule-based car-following models, and reinforcement learning. Through comprehensive simulation on a highway merging scenario across diverse scenarios of CAV penetration rate and traffic density, BK-PBS outperforms these baselines in reducing collision rates and enhancing system-level travel delay. Our work is directly applicable to many scenarios of multi-human multi-robot coordination.

The Nah Bandit: Modeling User Non-compliance in Recommendation Systems

Recommendation systems now pervade the digital world, ranging from advertising to entertainment. However, it remains challenging to implement effective recommendation systems in the physical world, such as in mobility or health. This work focuses on a key challenge: in the physical world, it is often easy for the user to opt out of taking any recommendation if they are not to her liking, and to fall back to her baseline behavior. It is thus crucial in cyber-physical recommendation systems to operate with an interaction model that is aware of such user behavior, lest the user abandon the recommendations altogether. This paper thus introduces the Nah Bandit, a tongue-in-cheek reference to describe a Bandit problem where users can say `nah' to the recommendation and opt for their preferred option instead. As such, this problem lies in between a typical bandit setup and supervised learning. We model the user non-compliance by parameterizing an anchoring effect of recommendations on users. We then propose the Expert with Clustering (EWC) algorithm, a hierarchical approach that incorporates feedback from both recommended and non-recommended options to accelerate user preference learning. In a recommendation scenario with $N$ users, $T$ rounds per user, and $K$ clusters, EWC achieves a regret bound of $O(N\sqrt{T\log K} + NT)$, achieving superior theoretical performance in the short term compared to LinUCB algorithm. Experimental results also highlight that EWC outperforms both supervised learning and traditional contextual bandit approaches. This advancement reveals that effective use of non-compliance feedback can accelerate preference learning and improve recommendation accuracy. This work lays the foundation for future research in Nah Bandit, providing a robust framework for more effective recommendation systems.

Mitigating Metropolitan Carbon Emissions with Dynamic Eco-driving at Scale

The sheer scale and diversity of transportation make it a formidable sector to decarbonize. Here, we consider an emerging opportunity to reduce carbon emissions: the growing adoption of semi-autonomous vehicles, which can be programmed to mitigate stop-and-go traffic through intelligent speed commands and, thus, reduce emissions. But would such dynamic eco-driving move the needle on climate change? A comprehensive impact analysis has been out of reach due to the vast array of traffic scenarios and the complexity of vehicle emissions. We address this challenge with large-scale scenario modeling efforts and by using multi-task deep reinforcement learning with a carefully designed network decomposition strategy. We perform an in-depth prospective impact assessment of dynamic eco-driving at 6,011 signalized intersections across three major US metropolitan cities, simulating a million traffic scenarios. Overall, we find that vehicle trajectories optimized for emissions can cut city-wide intersection carbon emissions by 11-22%, without harming throughput or safety, and with reasonable assumptions, equivalent to the national emissions of Israel and Nigeria, respectively. We find that 10% eco-driving adoption yields 25%-50% of the total reduction, and nearly 70% of the benefits come from 20% of intersections, suggesting near-term implementation pathways. However, the composition of this high-impact subset of intersections varies considerably across different adoption levels, with minimal overlap, calling for careful strategic planning for eco-driving deployments. Moreover, the impact of eco-driving, when considered jointly with projections of vehicle electrification and hybrid vehicle adoption remains significant. More broadly, this work paves the way for large-scale analysis of traffic externalities, such as time, safety, and air quality, and the potential impact of solution strategies.

Model-Based Transfer Learning for Contextual Reinforcement Learning

Deep reinforcement learning is a powerful approach to complex decision making. However, one issue that limits its practical application is its brittleness, sometimes failing to train in the presence of small changes in the environment. This work is motivated by the empirical observation that directly applying an already trained model to a related task often works remarkably well, also called zero-shot transfer. We take this practical trick one step further to consider how to systematically select good tasks to train, maximizing overall performance across a range of tasks. Given the high cost of training, it is critical to choose a small set of training tasks. The key idea behind our approach is to explicitly model the performance loss (generalization gap) incurred by transferring a trained model. We hence introduce Model-Based Transfer Learning (MBTL) for solving contextual RL problems. In this work, we model the performance loss as a simple linear function of task context similarity. Furthermore, we leverage Bayesian optimization techniques to efficiently model and estimate the unknown training performance of the task space. We theoretically show that the method exhibits regret that is sublinear in the number of training tasks and discuss conditions to further tighten regret bounds. We experimentally validate our methods using urban traffic and standard control benchmarks. Despite the conceptual simplicity, the experimental results suggest that MBTL can achieve greater performance than strong baselines, including exhaustive training on all tasks, multi-task training, and random selection of training tasks. This work lays the foundations for investigating explicit modeling of generalization, thereby enabling principled yet effective methods for contextual RL.

Cooperative Advisory Residual Policies for Congestion Mitigation

Fleets of autonomous vehicles can mitigate traffic congestion through simple actions, thus improving many socioeconomic factors such as commute time and gas costs. However, these approaches are limited in practice as they assume precise control over autonomous vehicle fleets, incur extensive installation costs for a centralized sensor ecosystem, and also fail to account for uncertainty in driver behavior. To this end, we develop a class of learned residual policies that can be used in cooperative advisory systems and only require the use of a single vehicle with a human driver. Our policies advise drivers to behave in ways that mitigate traffic congestion while accounting for diverse driver behaviors, particularly drivers' reactions to instructions, to provide an improved user experience. To realize such policies, we introduce an improved reward function that explicitly addresses congestion mitigation and driver attitudes to advice. We show that our residual policies can be personalized by conditioning them on an inferred driver trait that is learned in an unsupervised manner with a variational autoencoder. Our policies are trained in simulation with our novel instruction adherence driver model, and evaluated in simulation and through a user study (N=16) to capture the sentiments of human drivers. Our results show that our approaches successfully mitigate congestion while adapting to different driver behaviors, with up to 20% and 40% improvement as measured by a combination metric of speed and deviations in speed across time over baselines in our simulation tests and user study, respectively. Our user study further shows that our policies are human-compatible and personalize to drivers.