Deep Learning-Based Electricity Price Forecast for Virtual Bidding in Wholesale Electricity Market

Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making accurate forecasting critical for virtual bidders, reducing uncertainty and maximizing profits. This study presents a Transformer-based deep learning model to forecast the price spread between real-time and day-ahead electricity prices in the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) market. The proposed model leverages various time-series features, including load forecasts, solar and wind generation forecasts, and temporal attributes. The model is trained under realistic constraints and validated using a walk-forward approach by updating the model every week. Based on the price spread prediction results, several trading strategies are proposed and the most effective strategy for maximizing cumulative profit under realistic market conditions is identified through backtesting. The results show that the strategy of trading only at the peak hour with a precision score of over 50% produces nearly consistent profit over the test period. The proposed method underscores the importance of an accurate electricity price forecasting model and introduces a new method of evaluating the price forecast model from a virtual bidder's perspective, providing valuable insights for future research.

MetaFollower: Adaptable Personalized Autonomous Car Following

Car-following (CF) modeling, a fundamental component in microscopic traffic simulation, has attracted increasing interest of researchers in the past decades. In this study, we propose an adaptable personalized car-following framework -MetaFollower, by leveraging the power of meta-learning. Specifically, we first utilize Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) to extract common driving knowledge from various CF events. Afterward, the pre-trained model can be fine-tuned on new drivers with only a few CF trajectories to achieve personalized CF adaptation. We additionally combine Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) to reflect temporal heterogeneity with high interpretability. Unlike conventional adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems that rely on predefined settings and constant parameters without considering heterogeneous driving characteristics, MetaFollower can accurately capture and simulate the intricate dynamics of car-following behavior while considering the unique driving styles of individual drivers. We demonstrate the versatility and adaptability of MetaFollower by showcasing its ability to adapt to new drivers with limited training data quickly. To evaluate the performance of MetaFollower, we conduct rigorous experiments comparing it with both data-driven and physics-based models. The results reveal that our proposed framework outperforms baseline models in predicting car-following behavior with higher accuracy and safety. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first car-following model aiming to achieve fast adaptation by considering both driver and temporal heterogeneity based on meta-learning.

Video Frame Interpolation for Polarization via Swin-Transformer

Video Frame Interpolation (VFI) has been extensively explored and demonstrated, yet its application to polarization remains largely unexplored. Due to the selective transmission of light by polarized filters, longer exposure times are typically required to ensure sufficient light intensity, which consequently lower the temporal sample rates. Furthermore, because polarization reflected by objects varies with shooting perspective, focusing solely on estimating pixel displacement is insufficient to accurately reconstruct the intermediate polarization. To tackle these challenges, this study proposes a multi-stage and multi-scale network called Swin-VFI based on the Swin-Transformer and introduces a tailored loss function to facilitate the network's understanding of polarization changes. To ensure the practicality of our proposed method, this study evaluates its interpolated frames in Shape from Polarization (SfP) and Human Shape Reconstruction tasks, comparing them with other state-of-the-art methods such as CAIN, FLAVR, and VFIT. Experimental results demonstrate our approach's superior reconstruction accuracy across all tasks.

Rényi Neural Processes

Neural Processes (NPs) are variational frameworks that aim to represent stochastic processes with deep neural networks. Despite their obvious benefits in uncertainty estimation for complex distributions via data-driven priors, NPs enforce network parameter sharing between the conditional prior and posterior distributions, thereby risking introducing a misspecified prior. We hereby propose R\'enyi Neural Processes (RNP) to relax the influence of the misspecified prior and optimize a tighter bound of the marginal likelihood. More specifically, by replacing the standard KL divergence with the R\'enyi divergence between the posterior and the approximated prior, we ameliorate the impact of the misspecified prior via a parameter {\alpha} so that the resulting posterior focuses more on tail samples and reduce density on overconfident regions. Our experiments showed log-likelihood improvements on several existing NP families. We demonstrated the superior performance of our approach on various benchmarks including regression and image inpainting tasks. We also validate the effectiveness of RNPs on real-world tabular regression problems.

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

LC-LLM: Explainable Lane-Change Intention and Trajectory Predictions with Large Language Models

To ensure safe driving in dynamic environments, autonomous vehicles should possess the capability to accurately predict the lane change intentions of surrounding vehicles in advance and forecast their future trajectories. Existing motion prediction approaches have ample room for improvement, particularly in terms of long-term prediction accuracy and interpretability. In this paper, we address these challenges by proposing LC-LLM, an explainable lane change prediction model that leverages the strong reasoning capabilities and self-explanation abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Essentially, we reformulate the lane change prediction task as a language modeling problem, processing heterogeneous driving scenario information in natural language as prompts for input into the LLM and employing a supervised fine-tuning technique to tailor the LLM specifically for our lane change prediction task. This allows us to utilize the LLM's powerful common sense reasoning abilities to understand complex interactive information, thereby improving the accuracy of long-term predictions. Furthermore, we incorporate explanatory requirements into the prompts in the inference stage. Therefore, our LC-LLM model not only can predict lane change intentions and trajectories but also provides explanations for its predictions, enhancing the interpretability. Extensive experiments on the large-scale highD dataset demonstrate the superior performance and interpretability of our LC-LLM in lane change prediction task. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to utilize LLMs for predicting lane change behavior. Our study shows that LLMs can encode comprehensive interaction information for driving behavior understanding.

Active Learning for NLP with Large Language Models

Human annotation of training samples is expensive, laborious, and sometimes challenging, especially for Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. To reduce the labeling cost and enhance the sample efficiency, Active Learning (AL) technique can be used to label as few samples as possible to reach a reasonable or similar results. To reduce even more costs and with the significant advances of Large Language Models (LLMs), LLMs can be a good candidate to annotate samples. This work investigates the accuracy and cost of using LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) to label samples on 3 different datasets. A consistency-based strategy is proposed to select samples that are potentially incorrectly labeled so that human annotations can be used for those samples in AL settings, and we call it mixed annotation strategy. Then we test performance of AL under two different settings: (1) using human annotations only; (2) using the proposed mixed annotation strategy. The accuracy of AL models under 3 AL query strategies are reported on 3 text classification datasets, i.e., AG's News, TREC-6, and Rotten Tomatoes. On AG's News and Rotten Tomatoes, the models trained with the mixed annotation strategy achieves similar or better results compared to that with human annotations. The method reveals great potentials of LLMs as annotators in terms of accuracy and cost efficiency in active learning settings.

AccidentGPT: Accident Analysis and Prevention from V2X Environmental Perception with Multi-modal Large Model

Traffic accidents, being a significant contributor to both human casualties and property damage, have long been a focal point of research for many scholars in the field of traffic safety. However, previous studies, whether focusing on static environmental assessments or dynamic driving analyses, as well as pre-accident predictions or post-accident rule analyses, have typically been conducted in isolation. There has been a lack of an effective framework for developing a comprehensive understanding and application of traffic safety. To address this gap, this paper introduces AccidentGPT, a comprehensive accident analysis and prevention multi-modal large model. AccidentGPT establishes a multi-modal information interaction framework grounded in multi-sensor perception, thereby enabling a holistic approach to accident analysis and prevention in the field of traffic safety. Specifically, our capabilities can be categorized as follows: for autonomous driving vehicles, we provide comprehensive environmental perception and understanding to control the vehicle and avoid collisions. For human-driven vehicles, we offer proactive long-range safety warnings and blind-spot alerts while also providing safety driving recommendations and behavioral norms through human-machine dialogue and interaction. Additionally, for traffic police and management agencies, our framework supports intelligent and real-time analysis of traffic safety, encompassing pedestrian, vehicles, roads, and the environment through collaborative perception from multiple vehicles and road testing devices. The system is also capable of providing a thorough analysis of accident causes and liability after vehicle collisions. Our framework stands as the first large model to integrate comprehensive scene understanding into traffic safety studies. Project page: https://accidentgpt.github.io

Data-driven Traffic Simulation: A Comprehensive Review

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to significantly revolutionize society by providing a secure and efficient mode of transportation. Recent years have witnessed notable advance-ments in autonomous driving perception and prediction, but the challenge of validating the performance of AVs remains largely unresolved. Data-driven microscopic traffic simulation has be-come an important tool for autonomous driving testing due to 1) availability of high-fidelity traffic data; 2) its advantages of ena-bling large-scale testing and scenario reproducibility; and 3) its potential in reactive and realistic traffic simulation. However, a comprehensive review of this topic is currently lacking. This pa-per aims to fill this gap by summarizing relevant studies. The primary objective of this paper is to review current research ef-forts and provide a futuristic perspective that will benefit future developments in the field. It introduces the general issues of data-driven traffic simulation and outlines key concepts and terms. After overviewing traffic simulation, various datasets and evalua-tion metrics commonly used are reviewed. The paper then offers a comprehensive evaluation of imitation learning, reinforcement learning, generative and deep learning methods, summarizing each and analyzing their advantages and disadvantages in detail. Moreover, it evaluates the state-of-the-art, existing challenges, and future research directions.

BEVGPT: Generative Pre-trained Large Model for Autonomous Driving Prediction, Decision-Making, and Planning

Prediction, decision-making, and motion planning are essential for autonomous driving. In most contemporary works, they are considered as individual modules or combined into a multi-task learning paradigm with a shared backbone but separate task heads. However, we argue that they should be integrated into a comprehensive framework. Although several recent approaches follow this scheme, they suffer from complicated input representations and redundant framework designs. More importantly, they can not make long-term predictions about future driving scenarios. To address these issues, we rethink the necessity of each module in an autonomous driving task and incorporate only the required modules into a minimalist autonomous driving framework. We propose BEVGPT, a generative pre-trained large model that integrates driving scenario prediction, decision-making, and motion planning. The model takes the bird's-eye-view (BEV) images as the only input source and makes driving decisions based on surrounding traffic scenarios. To ensure driving trajectory feasibility and smoothness, we develop an optimization-based motion planning method. We instantiate BEVGPT on Lyft Level 5 Dataset and use Woven Planet L5Kit for realistic driving simulation. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework are verified by the fact that it outperforms previous methods in 100% decision-making metrics and 66% motion planning metrics. Furthermore, the ability of our framework to accurately generate BEV images over the long term is demonstrated through the task of driving scenario prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first generative pre-trained large model for autonomous driving prediction, decision-making, and motion planning with only BEV images as input.