Dual-Splitting Conformal Prediction for Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is crucial for applications like resource scheduling and risk management, where multi-step predictions provide a comprehensive view of future trends. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a mainstream approach for addressing forecasting uncertainties, with Conformal Prediction (CP) gaining attention due to its model-agnostic nature and statistical guarantees. However, most variants of CP are designed for single-step predictions and face challenges in multi-step scenarios, such as reliance on real-time data and limited scalability. This highlights the need for CP methods specifically tailored to multi-step forecasting. We propose the Dual-Splitting Conformal Prediction (DSCP) method, a novel CP approach designed to capture inherent dependencies within time-series data for multi-step forecasting. Experimental results on real-world datasets from four different domains demonstrate that the proposed DSCP significantly outperforms existing CP variants in terms of the Winkler Score, achieving a performance improvement of up to 23.59% compared to state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, we deployed the DSCP approach for renewable energy generation and IT load forecasting in power management of a real-world trajectory-based application, achieving an 11.25% reduction in carbon emissions through predictive optimization of data center operations and controls.

Towards Reliable Time Series Forecasting under Future Uncertainty: Ambiguity and Novelty Rejection Mechanisms

In real-world time series forecasting, uncertainty and lack of reliable evaluation pose significant challenges. Notably, forecasting errors often arise from underfitting in-distribution data and failing to handle out-of-distribution inputs. To enhance model reliability, we introduce a dual rejection mechanism combining ambiguity and novelty rejection. Ambiguity rejection, using prediction error variance, allows the model to abstain under low confidence, assessed through historical error variance analysis without future ground truth. Novelty rejection, employing Variational Autoencoders and Mahalanobis distance, detects deviations from training data. This dual approach improves forecasting reliability in dynamic environments by reducing errors and adapting to data changes, advancing reliability in complex scenarios.

Seeing the Future, Perceiving the Future: A Unified Driving World Model for Future Generation and Perception

We present UniFuture, a simple yet effective driving world model that seamlessly integrates future scene generation and perception within a single framework. Unlike existing models focusing solely on pixel-level future prediction or geometric reasoning, our approach jointly models future appearance (i.e., RGB image) and geometry (i.e., depth), ensuring coherent predictions. Specifically, during the training, we first introduce a Dual-Latent Sharing scheme, which transfers image and depth sequence in a shared latent space, allowing both modalities to benefit from shared feature learning. Additionally, we propose a Multi-scale Latent Interaction mechanism, which facilitates bidirectional refinement between image and depth features at multiple spatial scales, effectively enhancing geometry consistency and perceptual alignment. During testing, our UniFuture can easily predict high-consistency future image-depth pairs by only using the current image as input. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that UniFuture outperforms specialized models on future generation and perception tasks, highlighting the advantages of a unified, structurally-aware world model. The project page is at https://github.com/dk-liang/UniFuture.

Variable-Friction In-Hand Manipulation for Arbitrary Objects via Diffusion-Based Imitation Learning

Dexterous in-hand manipulation (IHM) for arbitrary objects is challenging due to the rich and subtle contact process. Variable-friction manipulation is an alternative approach to dexterity, previously demonstrating robust and versatile 2D IHM capabilities with only two single-joint fingers. However, the hard-coded manipulation methods for variable friction hands are restricted to regular polygon objects and limited target poses, as well as requiring the policy to be tailored for each object. This paper proposes an end-to-end learning-based manipulation method to achieve arbitrary object manipulation for any target pose on real hardware, with minimal engineering efforts and data collection. The method features a diffusion policy-based imitation learning method with co-training from simulation and a small amount of real-world data. With the proposed framework, arbitrary objects including polygons and non-polygons can be precisely manipulated to reach arbitrary goal poses within 2 hours of training on an A100 GPU and only 1 hour of real-world data collection. The precision is higher than previous customized object-specific policies, achieving an average success rate of 71.3% with average pose error being 2.676 mm and 1.902 degrees.

Primitive-Swarm: An Ultra-lightweight and Scalable Planner for Large-scale Aerial Swarms

Achieving large-scale aerial swarms is challenging due to the inherent contradictions in balancing computational efficiency and scalability. This paper introduces Primitive-Swarm, an ultra-lightweight and scalable planner designed specifically for large-scale autonomous aerial swarms. The proposed approach adopts a decentralized and asynchronous replanning strategy. Within it is a novel motion primitive library consisting of time-optimal and dynamically feasible trajectories. They are generated utlizing a novel time-optimial path parameterization algorithm based on reachability analysis (TOPP-RA). Then, a rapid collision checking mechanism is developed by associating the motion primitives with the discrete surrounding space according to conflicts. By considering both spatial and temporal conflicts, the mechanism handles robot-obstacle and robot-robot collisions simultaneously. Then, during a replanning process, each robot selects the safe and minimum cost trajectory from the library based on user-defined requirements. Both the time-optimal motion primitive library and the occupancy information are computed offline, turning a time-consuming optimization problem into a linear-complexity selection problem. This enables the planner to comprehensively explore the non-convex, discontinuous 3-D safe space filled with numerous obstacles and robots, effectively identifying the best hidden path. Benchmark comparisons demonstrate that our method achieves the shortest flight time and traveled distance with a computation time of less than 1 ms in dense environments. Super large-scale swarm simulations, involving up to 1000 robots, running in real-time, verify the scalability of our method. Real-world experiments validate the feasibility and robustness of our approach. The code will be released to foster community collaboration.

S$^2$R: Teaching LLMs to Self-verify and Self-correct via Reinforcement Learning

Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of LLM test-time scaling. However, existing approaches to incentivize LLMs' deep thinking abilities generally require large-scale data or significant training efforts. Meanwhile, it remains unclear how to improve the thinking abilities of less powerful base models. In this work, we introduce S$^2$R, an efficient framework that enhances LLM reasoning by teaching models to self-verify and self-correct during inference. Specifically, we first initialize LLMs with iterative self-verification and self-correction behaviors through supervised fine-tuning on carefully curated data. The self-verification and self-correction skills are then further strengthened by both outcome-level and process-level reinforcement learning, with minimized resource requirements, enabling the model to adaptively refine its reasoning process during inference. Our results demonstrate that, with only 3.1k self-verifying and self-correcting behavior initialization samples, Qwen2.5-math-7B achieves an accuracy improvement from 51.0\% to 81.6\%, outperforming models trained on an equivalent amount of long-CoT distilled data. Extensive experiments and analysis based on three base models across both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks validate the effectiveness of S$^2$R. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/NineAbyss/S2R.

GiFT: Gibbs Fine-Tuning for Code Generation

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) with synthetic data is a prevalent practice in code generation. A key approach is self-training, where LLMs are iteratively trained on self-generated correct code snippets. In this case, the self-generated codes are drawn from a conditional distribution, conditioned on a specific seed description. However, the seed description is not the only valid representation that aligns with its intended meaning. With all valid descriptions and codes forming a joint space, codes drawn from the conditional distribution would lead to an underrepresentation of the full description-code space. As such, we propose Gibbs Fine-Tuning (GiFT), a novel self-training method inspired by Gibbs sampling. GiFT allows self-generated data to be drawn from the marginal distribution of the joint space, thereby mitigating the biases inherent in conditional sampling. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating the potential benefits of fine-tuning LLMs with code derived from the marginal distribution. Furthermore, we propose a perplexity-based code selection method to mitigate the imbalanced long-tail distribution of the self-generated codes. Empirical evaluation of two LLMs across four datasets demonstrates that GiFT achieves superior performance, particularly on more challenging benchmarks.

Self-Consistency of the Internal Reward Models Improves Self-Rewarding Language Models

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences is crucial for their deployment in real-world applications. Recent advancements in Self-Rewarding Language Models suggest that an LLM can use its internal reward models (such as LLM-as-a-Judge) \cite{yuanself} to generate preference data, improving alignment performance without costly human annotation. However, we find that different internal reward models within the same LLM often generate inconsistent preferences. This inconsistency raises concerns about the reliability of self-generated preference data, hinders overall alignment performance, and highlights the need for further research to ensure reliable and coherent alignment with human preferences. To address this limitation, we propose Self-Consistent Internal Rewards (SCIR), a novel framework designed to enhance consistency among internal reward models during training. In each training step, we collect preference predictions from multiple pre-defined internal reward models and enforce consistency and confidence through an inconsistency penalty mechanism, thereby improving the reliability of these internal reward models. We selectively use data with consistent predictions for preference optimization, ensuring the quality of the preference data. By employing self-consistent internal rewards, our method significantly improves the alignment performance and reward modeling capability of LLMs, outperforming baseline methods by a notable margin.

LessLeak-Bench: A First Investigation of Data Leakage in LLMs Across 83 Software Engineering Benchmarks

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely utilized in software engineering (SE) tasks, such as code generation and automated program repair. However, their reliance on extensive and often undisclosed pre-training datasets raises significant concerns about data leakage, where the evaluation benchmark data is unintentionally ``seen'' by LLMs during the model's construction phase. The data leakage issue could largely undermine the validity of LLM-based research and evaluations. Despite the increasing use of LLMs in the SE community, there is no comprehensive study that assesses the extent of data leakage in SE benchmarks for LLMs yet. To address this gap, this paper presents the first large-scale analysis of data leakage in 83 SE benchmarks concerning LLMs. Our results show that in general, data leakage in SE benchmarks is minimal, with average leakage ratios of only 4.8\%, 2.8\%, and 0.7\% for Python, Java, and C/C++ benchmarks, respectively. However, some benchmarks exhibit relatively higher leakage ratios, which raises concerns about their bias in evaluation. For instance, QuixBugs and BigCloneBench have leakage ratios of 100.0\% and 55.7\%, respectively. Furthermore, we observe that data leakage has a substantial impact on LLM evaluation. We also identify key causes of high data leakage, such as the direct inclusion of benchmark data in pre-training datasets and the use of coding platforms like LeetCode for benchmark construction. To address the data leakage, we introduce \textbf{LessLeak-Bench}, a new benchmark that removes leaked samples from the 83 SE benchmarks, enabling more reliable LLM evaluations in future research. Our study enhances the understanding of data leakage in SE benchmarks and provides valuable insights for future research involving LLMs in SE.

HERMES: A Unified Self-Driving World Model for Simultaneous 3D Scene Understanding and Generation

Driving World Models (DWMs) have become essential for autonomous driving by enabling future scene prediction. However, existing DWMs are limited to scene generation and fail to incorporate scene understanding, which involves interpreting and reasoning about the driving environment. In this paper, we present a unified Driving World Model named HERMES. We seamlessly integrate 3D scene understanding and future scene evolution (generation) through a unified framework in driving scenarios. Specifically, HERMES leverages a Bird's-Eye View (BEV) representation to consolidate multi-view spatial information while preserving geometric relationships and interactions. We also introduce world queries, which incorporate world knowledge into BEV features via causal attention in the Large Language Model (LLM), enabling contextual enrichment for understanding and generation tasks. We conduct comprehensive studies on nuScenes and OmniDrive-nuScenes datasets to validate the effectiveness of our method. HERMES achieves state-of-the-art performance, reducing generation error by 32.4% and improving understanding metrics such as CIDEr by 8.0%. The model and code will be publicly released at https://github.com/LMD0311/HERMES.