Position Paper On Diagnostic Uncertainty Estimation from Large Language Models: Next-Word Probability Is Not Pre-test Probability

Large language models (LLMs) are being explored for diagnostic decision support, yet their ability to estimate pre-test probabilities, vital for clinical decision-making, remains limited. This study evaluates two LLMs, Mistral-7B and Llama3-70B, using structured electronic health record data on three diagnosis tasks. We examined three current methods of extracting LLM probability estimations and revealed their limitations. We aim to highlight the need for improved techniques in LLM confidence estimation.

Mapping Bias in Vision Language Models: Signposts, Pitfalls, and the Road Ahead

As Vision Language Models (VLMs) gain widespread use, their fairness remains under-explored. In this paper, we analyze demographic biases across five models and six datasets. We find that portrait datasets like UTKFace and CelebA are the best tools for bias detection, finding gaps in performance and fairness between LLaVa and CLIP models. However, scene based datasets like PATA, VLStereoSet fail to be useful benchmarks for bias due to their construction. As for pronoun based datasets like VisoGender, we receive mixed signals as only some subsets of the data are useful in providing insights. To alleviate this problem, we introduce a more difficult version of VisoGender to serve as a more rigorous evaluation. Based on these results, we call for more effective and carefully designed datasets to ensure VLMs are both fair and reliable.

WorldMedQA-V: a multilingual, multimodal medical examination dataset for multimodal language models evaluation

Multimodal/vision language models (VLMs) are increasingly being deployed in healthcare settings worldwide, necessitating robust benchmarks to ensure their safety, efficacy, and fairness. Multiple-choice question and answer (QA) datasets derived from national medical examinations have long served as valuable evaluation tools, but existing datasets are largely text-only and available in a limited subset of languages and countries. To address these challenges, we present WorldMedQA-V, an updated multilingual, multimodal benchmarking dataset designed to evaluate VLMs in healthcare. WorldMedQA-V includes 568 labeled multiple-choice QAs paired with 568 medical images from four countries (Brazil, Israel, Japan, and Spain), covering original languages and validated English translations by native clinicians, respectively. Baseline performance for common open- and closed-source models are provided in the local language and English translations, and with and without images provided to the model. The WorldMedQA-V benchmark aims to better match AI systems to the diverse healthcare environments in which they are deployed, fostering more equitable, effective, and representative applications.

Wait, but Tylenol is Acetaminophen... Investigating and Improving Language Models' Ability to Resist Requests for Misinformation

Background: Large language models (LLMs) are trained to follow directions, but this introduces a vulnerability to blindly comply with user requests even if they generate wrong information. In medicine, this could accelerate the generation of misinformation that impacts human well-being. Objectives/Methods: We analyzed compliance to requests to generate misleading content about medications in settings where models know the request is illogical. We investigated whether in-context directions and instruction-tuning of LLMs to prioritize logical reasoning over compliance reduced misinformation risk. Results: While all frontier LLMs complied with misinformation requests, both prompt-based and parameter-based approaches can improve the detection of logic flaws in requests and prevent the dissemination of medical misinformation. Conclusion: Shifting LLMs to prioritize logic over compliance could reduce risks of exploitation for medical misinformation.

AIPatient: Simulating Patients with EHRs and LLM Powered Agentic Workflow

Simulated patient systems play a crucial role in modern medical education and research, providing safe, integrative learning environments and enabling clinical decision-making simulations. Large Language Models (LLM) could advance simulated patient systems by replicating medical conditions and patient-doctor interactions with high fidelity and low cost. However, ensuring the effectiveness and trustworthiness of these systems remains a challenge, as they require a large, diverse, and precise patient knowledgebase, along with a robust and stable knowledge diffusion to users. Here, we developed AIPatient, an advanced simulated patient system with AIPatient Knowledge Graph (AIPatient KG) as the input and the Reasoning Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Reasoning RAG) agentic workflow as the generation backbone. AIPatient KG samples data from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III database, producing a clinically diverse and relevant cohort of 1,495 patients with high knowledgebase validity (F1 0.89). Reasoning RAG leverages six LLM powered agents spanning tasks including retrieval, KG query generation, abstraction, checker, rewrite, and summarization. This agentic framework reaches an overall accuracy of 94.15% in EHR-based medical Question Answering (QA), outperforming benchmarks that use either no agent or only partial agent integration. Our system also presents high readability (median Flesch Reading Ease 77.23; median Flesch Kincaid Grade 5.6), robustness (ANOVA F-value 0.6126, p<0.1), and stability (ANOVA F-value 0.782, p<0.1). The promising performance of the AIPatient system highlights its potential to support a wide range of applications, including medical education, model evaluation, and system integration.

Dense Point Clouds Matter: Dust-GS for Scene Reconstruction from Sparse Viewpoints

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has demonstrated remarkable performance in scene synthesis and novel view synthesis tasks. Typically, the initialization of 3D Gaussian primitives relies on point clouds derived from Structure-from-Motion (SfM) methods. However, in scenarios requiring scene reconstruction from sparse viewpoints, the effectiveness of 3DGS is significantly constrained by the quality of these initial point clouds and the limited number of input images. In this study, we present Dust-GS, a novel framework specifically designed to overcome the limitations of 3DGS in sparse viewpoint conditions. Instead of relying solely on SfM, Dust-GS introduces an innovative point cloud initialization technique that remains effective even with sparse input data. Our approach leverages a hybrid strategy that integrates an adaptive depth-based masking technique, thereby enhancing the accuracy and detail of reconstructed scenes. Extensive experiments conducted on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that Dust-GS surpasses traditional 3DGS methods in scenarios with sparse viewpoints, achieving superior scene reconstruction quality with a reduced number of input images.

When Raw Data Prevails: Are Large Language Model Embeddings Effective in Numerical Data Representation for Medical Machine Learning Applications?

The introduction of Large Language Models (LLMs) has advanced data representation and analysis, bringing significant progress in their use for medical questions and answering. Despite these advancements, integrating tabular data, especially numerical data pivotal in clinical contexts, into LLM paradigms has not been thoroughly explored. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of vector representations from last hidden states of LLMs for medical diagnostics and prognostics using electronic health record (EHR) data. We compare the performance of these embeddings with that of raw numerical EHR data when used as feature inputs to traditional machine learning (ML) algorithms that excel at tabular data learning, such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting. We focus on instruction-tuned LLMs in a zero-shot setting to represent abnormal physiological data and evaluating their utilities as feature extractors to enhance ML classifiers for predicting diagnoses, length of stay, and mortality. Furthermore, we examine prompt engineering techniques on zero-shot and few-shot LLM embeddings to measure their impact comprehensively. Although findings suggest the raw data features still prevails in medical ML tasks, zero-shot LLM embeddings demonstrate competitive results, suggesting a promising avenue for future research in medical applications.

Language Models are Surprisingly Fragile to Drug Names in Biomedical Benchmarks

Medical knowledge is context-dependent and requires consistent reasoning across various natural language expressions of semantically equivalent phrases. This is particularly crucial for drug names, where patients often use brand names like Advil or Tylenol instead of their generic equivalents. To study this, we create a new robustness dataset, RABBITS, to evaluate performance differences on medical benchmarks after swapping brand and generic drug names using physician expert annotations. We assess both open-source and API-based LLMs on MedQA and MedMCQA, revealing a consistent performance drop ranging from 1-10\%. Furthermore, we identify a potential source of this fragility as the contamination of test data in widely used pre-training datasets. All code is accessible at https://github.com/BittermanLab/RABBITS, and a HuggingFace leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/AIM-Harvard/rabbits-leaderboard.

Cross-Care: Assessing the Healthcare Implications of Pre-training Data on Language Model Bias

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly essential in processing natural languages, yet their application is frequently compromised by biases and inaccuracies originating in their training data. In this study, we introduce Cross-Care, the first benchmark framework dedicated to assessing biases and real world knowledge in LLMs, specifically focusing on the representation of disease prevalence across diverse demographic groups. We systematically evaluate how demographic biases embedded in pre-training corpora like $ThePile$ influence the outputs of LLMs. We expose and quantify discrepancies by juxtaposing these biases against actual disease prevalences in various U.S. demographic groups. Our results highlight substantial misalignment between LLM representation of disease prevalence and real disease prevalence rates across demographic subgroups, indicating a pronounced risk of bias propagation and a lack of real-world grounding for medical applications of LLMs. Furthermore, we observe that various alignment methods minimally resolve inconsistencies in the models' representation of disease prevalence across different languages. For further exploration and analysis, we make all data and a data visualization tool available at: www.crosscare.net.

Improving Clinical NLP Performance through Language Model-Generated Synthetic Clinical Data

Generative models have been showing potential for producing data in mass. This study explores the enhancement of clinical natural language processing performance by utilizing synthetic data generated from advanced language models. Promising results show feasible applications in such a high-stakes domain.