Evidence of a log scaling law for political persuasion with large language models

Large language models can now generate political messages as persuasive as those written by humans, raising concerns about how far this persuasiveness may continue to increase with model size. Here, we generate 720 persuasive messages on 10 U.S. political issues from 24 language models spanning several orders of magnitude in size. We then deploy these messages in a large-scale randomized survey experiment (N = 25,982) to estimate the persuasive capability of each model. Our findings are twofold. First, we find evidence of a log scaling law: model persuasiveness is characterized by sharply diminishing returns, such that current frontier models are barely more persuasive than models smaller in size by an order of magnitude or more. Second, mere task completion (coherence, staying on topic) appears to account for larger models' persuasive advantage. These findings suggest that further scaling model size will not much increase the persuasiveness of static LLM-generated messages.

A Multilingual Similarity Dataset for News Article Frame

Understanding the writing frame of news articles is vital for addressing social issues, and thus has attracted notable attention in the fields of communication studies. Yet, assessing such news article frames remains a challenge due to the absence of a concrete and unified standard dataset that considers the comprehensive nuances within news content. To address this gap, we introduce an extended version of a large labeled news article dataset with 16,687 new labeled pairs. Leveraging the pairwise comparison of news articles, our method frees the work of manual identification of frame classes in traditional news frame analysis studies. Overall we introduce the most extensive cross-lingual news article similarity dataset available to date with 26,555 labeled news article pairs across 10 languages. Each data point has been meticulously annotated according to a codebook detailing eight critical aspects of news content, under a human-in-the-loop framework. Application examples demonstrate its potential in unearthing country communities within global news coverage, exposing media bias among news outlets, and quantifying the factors related to news creation. We envision that this news similarity dataset will broaden our understanding of the media ecosystem in terms of news coverage of events and perspectives across countries, locations, languages, and other social constructs. By doing so, it can catalyze advancements in social science research and applied methodologies, thereby exerting a profound impact on our society.

Into the crossfire: evaluating the use of a language model to crowdsource gun violence reports

Gun violence is a pressing and growing human rights issue that affects nearly every dimension of the social fabric, from healthcare and education to psychology and the economy. Reliable data on firearm events is paramount to developing more effective public policy and emergency responses. However, the lack of comprehensive databases and the risks of in-person surveys prevent human rights organizations from collecting needed data in most countries. Here, we partner with a Brazilian human rights organization to conduct a systematic evaluation of language models to assist with monitoring real-world firearm events from social media data. We propose a fine-tuned BERT-based model trained on Twitter (now X) texts to distinguish gun violence reports from ordinary Portuguese texts. Our model achieves a high AUC score of 0.97. We then incorporate our model into a web application and test it in a live intervention. We study and interview Brazilian analysts who continuously fact-check social media texts to identify new gun violence events. Qualitative assessments show that our solution helped all analysts use their time more efficiently and expanded their search capacities. Quantitative assessments show that the use of our model was associated with more analysts' interactions with online users reporting gun violence. Taken together, our findings suggest that modern Natural Language Processing techniques can help support the work of human rights organizations.

Factuality Challenges in the Era of Large Language Models

The emergence of tools based on Large Language Models (LLMs), such as OpenAI's ChatGPT, Microsoft's Bing Chat, and Google's Bard, has garnered immense public attention. These incredibly useful, natural-sounding tools mark significant advances in natural language generation, yet they exhibit a propensity to generate false, erroneous, or misleading content -- commonly referred to as "hallucinations." Moreover, LLMs can be exploited for malicious applications, such as generating false but credible-sounding content and profiles at scale. This poses a significant challenge to society in terms of the potential deception of users and the increasing dissemination of inaccurate information. In light of these risks, we explore the kinds of technological innovations, regulatory reforms, and AI literacy initiatives needed from fact-checkers, news organizations, and the broader research and policy communities. By identifying the risks, the imminent threats, and some viable solutions, we seek to shed light on navigating various aspects of veracity in the era of generative AI.

Detecting East Asian Prejudice on Social Media

The outbreak of COVID-19 has transformed societies across the world as governments tackle the health, economic and social costs of the pandemic. It has also raised concerns about the spread of hateful language and prejudice online, especially hostility directed against East Asia. In this paper we report on the creation of a classifier that detects and categorizes social media posts from Twitter into four classes: Hostility against East Asia, Criticism of East Asia, Meta-discussions of East Asian prejudice and a neutral class. The classifier achieves an F1 score of 0.83 across all four classes. We provide our final model (coded in Python), as well as a new 20,000 tweet training dataset used to make the classifier, two analyses of hashtags associated with East Asian prejudice and the annotation codebook. The classifier can be implemented by other researchers, assisting with both online content moderation processes and further research into the dynamics, prevalence and impact of East Asian prejudice online during this global pandemic.