Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions.

Political-LLM: Large Language Models in Political Science

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in political science tasks such as election prediction, sentiment analysis, policy impact assessment, and misinformation detection. Meanwhile, the need to systematically understand how LLMs can further revolutionize the field also becomes urgent. In this work, we--a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and political science--present the first principled framework termed Political-LLM to advance the comprehensive understanding of integrating LLMs into computational political science. Specifically, we first introduce a fundamental taxonomy classifying the existing explorations into two perspectives: political science and computational methodologies. In particular, from the political science perspective, we highlight the role of LLMs in automating predictive and generative tasks, simulating behavior dynamics, and improving causal inference through tools like counterfactual generation; from a computational perspective, we introduce advancements in data preparation, fine-tuning, and evaluation methods for LLMs that are tailored to political contexts. We identify key challenges and future directions, emphasizing the development of domain-specific datasets, addressing issues of bias and fairness, incorporating human expertise, and redefining evaluation criteria to align with the unique requirements of computational political science. Political-LLM seeks to serve as a guidebook for researchers to foster an informed, ethical, and impactful use of Artificial Intelligence in political science. Our online resource is available at: http://political-llm.org/.

Explaining Mixtures of Sources in News Articles

Human writers plan, then write. For large language models (LLMs) to play a role in longer-form article generation, we must understand the planning steps humans make before writing. We explore one kind of planning, source-selection in news, as a case-study for evaluating plans in long-form generation. We ask: why do specific stories call for specific kinds of sources? We imagine a generative process for story writing where a source-selection schema is first selected by a journalist, and then sources are chosen based on categories in that schema. Learning the article's plan means predicting the schema initially chosen by the journalist. Working with professional journalists, we adapt five existing schemata and introduce three new ones to describe journalistic plans for the inclusion of sources in documents. Then, inspired by Bayesian latent-variable modeling, we develop metrics to select the most likely plan, or schema, underlying a story, which we use to compare schemata. We find that two schemata: stance and social affiliation best explain source plans in most documents. However, other schemata like textual entailment explain source plans in factually rich topics like "Science". Finally, we find we can predict the most suitable schema given just the article's headline with reasonable accuracy. We see this as an important case-study for human planning, and provides a framework and approach for evaluating other kinds of plans. We release a corpora, NewsSources, with annotations for 4M articles.

FACT-GPT: Fact-Checking Augmentation via Claim Matching with LLMs

Our society is facing rampant misinformation harming public health and trust. To address the societal challenge, we introduce FACT-GPT, a system leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate the claim matching stage of fact-checking. FACT-GPT, trained on a synthetic dataset, identifies social media content that aligns with, contradicts, or is irrelevant to previously debunked claims. Our evaluation shows that our specialized LLMs can match the accuracy of larger models in identifying related claims, closely mirroring human judgment. This research provides an automated solution for efficient claim matching, demonstrates the potential of LLMs in supporting fact-checkers, and offers valuable resources for further research in the field.

Social-LLM: Modeling User Behavior at Scale using Language Models and Social Network Data

The proliferation of social network data has unlocked unprecedented opportunities for extensive, data-driven exploration of human behavior. The structural intricacies of social networks offer insights into various computational social science issues, particularly concerning social influence and information diffusion. However, modeling large-scale social network data comes with computational challenges. Though large language models make it easier than ever to model textual content, any advanced network representation methods struggle with scalability and efficient deployment to out-of-sample users. In response, we introduce a novel approach tailored for modeling social network data in user detection tasks. This innovative method integrates localized social network interactions with the capabilities of large language models. Operating under the premise of social network homophily, which posits that socially connected users share similarities, our approach is designed to address these challenges. We conduct a thorough evaluation of our method across seven real-world social network datasets, spanning a diverse range of topics and detection tasks, showcasing its applicability to advance research in computational social science.

Can Language Model Moderators Improve the Health of Online Discourse?

Human moderation of online conversation is essential to maintaining civility and focus in a dialogue, but is challenging to scale and harmful to moderators. The inclusion of sophisticated natural language generation modules as a force multiplier aid moderators is a tantalizing prospect, but adequate evaluation approaches have so far been elusive. In this paper, we establish a systematic definition of conversational moderation effectiveness through a multidisciplinary lens that incorporates insights from social science. We then propose a comprehensive evaluation framework that uses this definition to asses models' moderation capabilities independently of human intervention. With our framework, we conduct the first known study of conversational dialogue models as moderators, finding that appropriately prompted models can provide specific and fair feedback on toxic behavior but struggle to influence users to increase their levels of respect and cooperation.

Tracking the Newsworthiness of Public Documents

Journalists must find stories in huge amounts of textual data (e.g. leaks, bills, press releases) as part of their jobs: determining when and why text becomes news can help us understand coverage patterns and help us build assistive tools. Yet, this is challenging because very few labelled links exist, language use between corpora is very different, and text may be covered for a variety of reasons. In this work we focus on news coverage of local public policy in the San Francisco Bay Area by the San Francisco Chronicle. First, we gather news articles, public policy documents and meeting recordings and link them using probabilistic relational modeling, which we show is a low-annotation linking methodology that outperforms other retrieval-based baselines. Second, we define a new task: newsworthiness prediction, to predict if a policy item will get covered. We show that different aspects of public policy discussion yield different newsworthiness signals. Finally we perform human evaluation with expert journalists and show our systems identify policies they consider newsworthy with 68% F1 and our coverage recommendations are helpful with an 84% win-rate.

Leveraging Large Language Models to Detect Influence Campaigns in Social Media

Social media influence campaigns pose significant challenges to public discourse and democracy. Traditional detection methods fall short due to the complexity and dynamic nature of social media. Addressing this, we propose a novel detection method using Large Language Models (LLMs) that incorporates both user metadata and network structures. By converting these elements into a text format, our approach effectively processes multilingual content and adapts to the shifting tactics of malicious campaign actors. We validate our model through rigorous testing on multiple datasets, showcasing its superior performance in identifying influence efforts. This research not only offers a powerful tool for detecting campaigns, but also sets the stage for future enhancements to keep up with the fast-paced evolution of social media-based influence tactics.

Automated Claim Matching with Large Language Models: Empowering Fact-Checkers in the Fight Against Misinformation

In today's digital era, the rapid spread of misinformation poses threats to public well-being and societal trust. As online misinformation proliferates, manual verification by fact checkers becomes increasingly challenging. We introduce FACT-GPT (Fact-checking Augmentation with Claim matching Task-oriented Generative Pre-trained Transformer), a framework designed to automate the claim matching phase of fact-checking using Large Language Models (LLMs). This framework identifies new social media content that either supports or contradicts claims previously debunked by fact-checkers. Our approach employs GPT-4 to generate a labeled dataset consisting of simulated social media posts. This data set serves as a training ground for fine-tuning more specialized LLMs. We evaluated FACT-GPT on an extensive dataset of social media content related to public health. The results indicate that our fine-tuned LLMs rival the performance of larger pre-trained LLMs in claim matching tasks, aligning closely with human annotations. This study achieves three key milestones: it provides an automated framework for enhanced fact-checking; demonstrates the potential of LLMs to complement human expertise; offers public resources, including datasets and models, to further research and applications in the fact-checking domain.

GenAI Against Humanity: Nefarious Applications of Generative Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) and Large Language Models (LLMs) are marvels of technology; celebrated for their prowess in natural language processing and multimodal content generation, they promise a transformative future. But as with all powerful tools, they come with their shadows. Picture living in a world where deepfakes are indistinguishable from reality, where synthetic identities orchestrate malicious campaigns, and where targeted misinformation or scams are crafted with unparalleled precision. Welcome to the darker side of GenAI applications. This article is not just a journey through the meanders of potential misuse of GenAI and LLMs, but also a call to recognize the urgency of the challenges ahead. As we navigate the seas of misinformation campaigns, malicious content generation, and the eerie creation of sophisticated malware, we'll uncover the societal implications that ripple through the GenAI revolution we are witnessing. From AI-powered botnets on social media platforms to the unnerving potential of AI to generate fabricated identities, or alibis made of synthetic realities, the stakes have never been higher. The lines between the virtual and the real worlds are blurring, and the consequences of potential GenAI's nefarious applications impact us all. This article serves both as a synthesis of rigorous research presented on the risks of GenAI and misuse of LLMs and as a thought-provoking vision of the different types of harmful GenAI applications we might encounter in the near future, and some ways we can prepare for them.