Bayesian optimized deep ensemble for uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks: a system safety case study on sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling

Accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are essential for decision-making in risk-sensitive fields such as system safety modeling. Deep ensembles (DEs) are efficient and scalable methods for UQ in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs); however, their performance is limited when constructed by simply retraining the same DNN multiple times with randomly sampled initializations. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel method that combines Bayesian optimization (BO) with DE, referred to as BODE, to enhance both predictive accuracy and UQ. We apply BODE to a case study involving a Densely connected Convolutional Neural Network (DCNN) trained on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data to predict eddy viscosity in sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling. Compared to a manually tuned baseline ensemble, BODE estimates total uncertainty approximately four times lower in a noise-free environment, primarily due to the baseline's overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty. Specifically, BODE estimates aleatoric uncertainty close to zero, while aleatoric uncertainty dominates the total uncertainty in the baseline ensemble. We also observe a reduction of more than 30% in epistemic uncertainty. When Gaussian noise with standard deviations of 5% and 10% is introduced into the data, BODE accurately fits the data and estimates uncertainty that aligns with the data noise. These results demonstrate that BODE effectively reduces uncertainty and enhances predictions in data-driven models, making it a flexible approach for various applications requiring accurate predictions and robust UQ.

Generalizable Prediction Model of Molten Salt Mixture Density with Chemistry-Informed Transfer Learning

Optimally designing molten salt applications requires knowledge of their thermophysical properties, but existing databases are incomplete, and experiments are challenging. Ideal mixing and Redlich-Kister models are computationally cheap but lack either accuracy or generality. To address this, a transfer learning approach using deep neural networks (DNNs) is proposed, combining Redlich-Kister models, experimental data, and ab initio properties. The approach predicts molten salt density with high accuracy ($r^{2}$ > 0.99, MAPE < 1%), outperforming the alternatives.

Large Language Models for Anomaly Detection in Computational Workflows: from Supervised Fine-Tuning to In-Context Learning

Anomaly detection in computational workflows is critical for ensuring system reliability and security. However, traditional rule-based methods struggle to detect novel anomalies. This paper leverages large language models (LLMs) for workflow anomaly detection by exploiting their ability to learn complex data patterns. Two approaches are investigated: 1) supervised fine-tuning (SFT), where pre-trained LLMs are fine-tuned on labeled data for sentence classification to identify anomalies, and 2) in-context learning (ICL) where prompts containing task descriptions and examples guide LLMs in few-shot anomaly detection without fine-tuning. The paper evaluates the performance, efficiency, generalization of SFT models, and explores zero-shot and few-shot ICL prompts and interpretability enhancement via chain-of-thought prompting. Experiments across multiple workflow datasets demonstrate the promising potential of LLMs for effective anomaly detection in complex executions.

Scalable Training of Graph Foundation Models for Atomistic Materials Modeling: A Case Study with HydraGNN

We present our work on developing and training scalable graph foundation models (GFM) using HydraGNN, a multi-headed graph convolutional neural network architecture. HydraGNN expands the boundaries of graph neural network (GNN) in both training scale and data diversity. It abstracts over message passing algorithms, allowing both reproduction of and comparison across algorithmic innovations that define convolution in GNNs. This work discusses a series of optimizations that have allowed scaling up the GFM training to tens of thousands of GPUs on datasets that consist of hundreds of millions of graphs. Our GFMs use multi-task learning (MTL) to simultaneously learn graph-level and node-level properties of atomistic structures, such as the total energy and atomic forces. Using over 150 million atomistic structures for training, we illustrate the performance of our approach along with the lessons learned on two United States Department of Energy (US-DOE) supercomputers, namely the Perlmutter petascale system at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center and the Frontier exascale system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The HydraGNN architecture enables the GFM to achieve near-linear strong scaling performance using more than 2,000 GPUs on Perlmutter and 16,000 GPUs on Frontier. Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) was performed on over 64,000 GPUs on Frontier to select GFM architectures with high accuracy. Early stopping was applied on each GFM architecture for energy awareness in performing such an extreme-scale task. The training of an ensemble of highest-ranked GFM architectures continued until convergence to establish uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities with ensemble learning. Our contribution opens the door for rapidly developing, training, and deploying GFMs using large-scale computational resources to enable AI-accelerated materials discovery and design.

Physics-Informed Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks for DC Blocker Placement

The threat of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) to the reliable operation of the bulk energy system has spurred the development of effective strategies for mitigating their impacts. One such approach involves placing transformer neutral blocking devices, which interrupt the path of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to limit their impact. The high cost of these devices and the sparsity of transformers that experience high GICs during GMD events, however, calls for a sparse placement strategy that involves high computational cost. To address this challenge, we developed a physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural network (PIHGNN) for solving the graph-based dc-blocker placement problem. Our approach combines a heterogeneous graph neural network (HGNN) with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to capture the diverse types of nodes and edges in ac/dc networks and incorporates the physical laws of the power grid. We train the PIHGNN model using a surrogate power flow model and validate it using case studies. Results demonstrate that PIHGNN can effectively and efficiently support the deployment of GIC dc-current blockers, ensuring the continued supply of electricity to meet societal demands. Our approach has the potential to contribute to the development of more reliable and resilient power grids capable of withstanding the growing threat that GMDs pose.

ORBIT: Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictability

Earth system predictability is challenged by the complexity of environmental dynamics and the multitude of variables involved. Current AI foundation models, although advanced by leveraging large and heterogeneous data, are often constrained by their size and data integration, limiting their effectiveness in addressing the full range of Earth system prediction challenges. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictability (ORBIT), an advanced vision-transformer model that scales up to 113 billion parameters using a novel hybrid tensor-data orthogonal parallelism technique. As the largest model of its kind, ORBIT surpasses the current climate AI foundation model size by a thousandfold. Performance scaling tests conducted on the Frontier supercomputer have demonstrated that ORBIT achieves 230 to 707 PFLOPS, with scaling efficiency maintained at 78% to 96% across 24,576 AMD GPUs. These breakthroughs establish new advances in AI-driven climate modeling and demonstrate promise to significantly improve the Earth system predictability.

Network architecture search of X-ray based scientific applications

X-ray and electron diffraction-based microscopy use bragg peak detection and ptychography to perform 3-D imaging at an atomic resolution. Typically, these techniques are implemented using computationally complex tasks such as a Psuedo-Voigt function or solving a complex inverse problem. Recently, the use of deep neural networks has improved the existing state-of-the-art approaches. However, the design and development of the neural network models depends on time and labor intensive tuning of the model by application experts. To that end, we propose a hyperparameter (HPS) and neural architecture search (NAS) approach to automate the design and optimization of the neural network models for model size, energy consumption and throughput. We demonstrate the improved performance of the auto-tuned models when compared to the manually tuned BraggNN and PtychoNN benchmark. We study and demonstrate the importance of the exploring the search space of tunable hyperparameters in enhancing the performance of bragg peak detection and ptychographic reconstruction. Our NAS and HPS of (1) BraggNN achieves a 31.03\% improvement in bragg peak detection accuracy with a 87.57\% reduction in model size, and (2) PtychoNN achieves a 16.77\% improvement in model accuracy and a 12.82\% reduction in model size when compared to the baseline PtychoNN model. When inferred on the Orin-AGX platform, the optimized Braggnn and Ptychonn models demonstrate a 10.51\% and 9.47\% reduction in inference latency and a 44.18\% and 15.34\% reduction in energy consumption when compared to their respective baselines, when inferred in the Orin-AGX edge platform.

AI Competitions and Benchmarks: Dataset Development

Machine learning is now used in many applications thanks to its ability to predict, generate, or discover patterns from large quantities of data. However, the process of collecting and transforming data for practical use is intricate. Even in today's digital era, where substantial data is generated daily, it is uncommon for it to be readily usable; most often, it necessitates meticulous manual data preparation. The haste in developing new models can frequently result in various shortcomings, potentially posing risks when deployed in real-world scenarios (eg social discrimination, critical failures), leading to the failure or substantial escalation of costs in AI-based projects. This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of established methodological tools, enriched by our practical experience, in the development of datasets for machine learning. Initially, we develop the tasks involved in dataset development and offer insights into their effective management (including requirements, design, implementation, evaluation, distribution, and maintenance). Then, we provide more details about the implementation process which includes data collection, transformation, and quality evaluation. Finally, we address practical considerations regarding dataset distribution and maintenance.

Streamlining Ocean Dynamics Modeling with Fourier Neural Operators: A Multiobjective Hyperparameter and Architecture Optimization Approach

Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage the advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization in DeepHyper, a scalable hyperparameter optimization software, to streamline the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The experimental results show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNOs in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.

The Unreasonable Effectiveness Of Early Discarding After One Epoch In Neural Network Hyperparameter Optimization

To reach high performance with deep learning, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is essential. This process is usually time-consuming due to costly evaluations of neural networks. Early discarding techniques limit the resources granted to unpromising candidates by observing the empirical learning curves and canceling neural network training as soon as the lack of competitiveness of a candidate becomes evident. Despite two decades of research, little is understood about the trade-off between the aggressiveness of discarding and the loss of predictive performance. Our paper studies this trade-off for several commonly used discarding techniques such as successive halving and learning curve extrapolation. Our surprising finding is that these commonly used techniques offer minimal to no added value compared to the simple strategy of discarding after a constant number of epochs of training. The chosen number of epochs depends mostly on the available compute budget. We call this approach i-Epoch (i being the constant number of epochs with which neural networks are trained) and suggest to assess the quality of early discarding techniques by comparing how their Pareto-Front (in consumed training epochs and predictive performance) complement the Pareto-Front of i-Epoch.