Satellite Observations Guided Diffusion Model for Accurate Meteorological States at Arbitrary Resolution

Accurate acquisition of surface meteorological conditions at arbitrary locations holds significant importance for weather forecasting and climate simulation. Due to the fact that meteorological states derived from satellite observations are often provided in the form of low-resolution grid fields, the direct application of spatial interpolation to obtain meteorological states for specific locations often results in significant discrepancies when compared to actual observations. Existing downscaling methods for acquiring meteorological state information at higher resolutions commonly overlook the correlation with satellite observations. To bridge the gap, we propose Satellite-observations Guided Diffusion Model (SGD), a conditional diffusion model pre-trained on ERA5 reanalysis data with satellite observations (GridSat) as conditions, which is employed for sampling downscaled meteorological states through a zero-shot guided sampling strategy and patch-based methods. During the training process, we propose to fuse the information from GridSat satellite observations into ERA5 maps via the attention mechanism, enabling SGD to generate atmospheric states that align more accurately with actual conditions. In the sampling, we employed optimizable convolutional kernels to simulate the upscale process, thereby generating high-resolution ERA5 maps using low-resolution ERA5 maps as well as observations from weather stations as guidance. Moreover, our devised patch-based method promotes SGD to generate meteorological states at arbitrary resolutions. Experiments demonstrate SGD fulfills accurate meteorological states downscaling to 6.25km.

Salvaging Forbidden Treasure in Medical Data: Utilizing Surrogate Outcomes and Single Records for Rare Event Modeling

The vast repositories of Electronic Health Records (EHR) and medical claims hold untapped potential for studying rare but critical events, such as suicide attempt. Conventional setups often model suicide attempt as a univariate outcome and also exclude any ``single-record'' patients with a single documented encounter due to a lack of historical information. However, patients who were diagnosed with suicide attempts at the only encounter could, to some surprise, represent a substantial proportion of all attempt cases in the data, as high as 70--80%. We innovate a hybrid and integrative learning framework to leverage concurrent outcomes as surrogates and harness the forbidden yet precious information from single-record data. Our approach employs a supervised learning component to learn the latent variables that connect primary (e.g., suicide) and surrogate outcomes (e.g., mental disorders) to historical information. It simultaneously employs an unsupervised learning component to utilize the single-record data, through the shared latent variables. As such, our approach offers a general strategy for information integration that is crucial to modeling rare conditions and events. With hospital inpatient data from Connecticut, we demonstrate that single-record data and concurrent diagnoses indeed carry valuable information, and utilizing them can substantially improve suicide risk modeling.

Code Readability in the Age of Large Language Models: An Industrial Case Study from Atlassian

Programmers spend a significant amount of time reading code during the software development process. This trend is amplified by the emergence of large language models (LLMs) that automatically generate code. However, little is known about the readability of the LLM-generated code and whether it is still important from practitioners' perspectives in this new era. In this paper, we conduct a survey to explore the practitioners' perspectives on code readability in the age of LLMs and investigate the readability of our LLM-based software development agents framework, HULA, by comparing its generated code with human-written code in real-world scenarios. Overall, the findings underscore that (1) readability remains a critical aspect of software development; (2) the readability of our LLM-generated code is comparable to human-written code, fostering the establishment of appropriate trust and driving the broad adoption of our LLM-powered software development platform.

Majorization-Minimization Dual Stagewise Algorithm for Generalized Lasso

The generalized lasso is a natural generalization of the celebrated lasso approach to handle structural regularization problems. Many important methods and applications fall into this framework, including fused lasso, clustered lasso, and constrained lasso. To elevate its effectiveness in large-scale problems, extensive research has been conducted on the computational strategies of generalized lasso. However, to our knowledge, most studies are under the linear setup, with limited advances in non-Gaussian and non-linear models. We propose a majorization-minimization dual stagewise (MM-DUST) algorithm to efficiently trace out the full solution paths of the generalized lasso problem. The majorization technique is incorporated to handle different convex loss functions through their quadratic majorizers. Utilizing the connection between primal and dual problems and the idea of ``slow-brewing'' from stagewise learning, the minimization step is carried out in the dual space through a sequence of simple coordinate-wise updates on the dual coefficients with a small step size. Consequently, selecting an appropriate step size enables a trade-off between statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. We analyze the computational complexity of MM-DUST and establish the uniform convergence of the approximated solution paths. Extensive simulation studies and applications with regularized logistic regression and Cox model demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

DEMO: Reframing Dialogue Interaction with Fine-grained Element Modeling

Large language models (LLMs) have made dialogue one of the central modes of human-machine interaction, leading to the accumulation of vast amounts of conversation logs and increasing demand for dialogue generation. A conversational life-cycle spans from the Prelude through the Interlocution to the Epilogue, encompassing various elements. Despite the existence of numerous dialogue-related studies, there is a lack of benchmarks that encompass comprehensive dialogue elements, hindering precise modeling and systematic evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce an innovative research task $\textbf{D}$ialogue $\textbf{E}$lement $\textbf{MO}$deling, including $\textit{Element Awareness}$ and $\textit{Dialogue Agent Interaction}$, and propose a novel benchmark, $\textbf{DEMO}$, designed for a comprehensive dialogue modeling and assessment. Inspired by imitation learning, we further build the agent which possesses the adept ability to model dialogue elements based on the DEMO benchmark. Extensive experiments indicate that existing LLMs still exhibit considerable potential for enhancement, and our DEMO agent has superior performance in both in-domain and out-of-domain tasks.

Human-In-the-Loop Software Development Agents

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs)-based multi-agent paradigms for software engineering are introduced to automatically resolve software development tasks (e.g., from a given issue to source code). However, existing work is evaluated based on historical benchmark datasets, does not consider human feedback at each stage of the automated software development process, and has not been deployed in practice. In this paper, we introduce a Human-in-the-loop LLM-based Agents framework (HULA) for software development that allows software engineers to refine and guide LLMs when generating coding plans and source code for a given task. We design, implement, and deploy the HULA framework into Atlassian JIRA for internal uses. Through a multi-stage evaluation of the HULA framework, Atlassian software engineers perceive that HULA can minimize the overall development time and effort, especially in initiating a coding plan and writing code for straightforward tasks. On the other hand, challenges around code quality are raised to be solved in some cases. We draw lessons learned and discuss opportunities for future work, which will pave the way for the advancement of LLM-based agents in software development.

PostCast: Generalizable Postprocessing for Precipitation Nowcasting via Unsupervised Blurriness Modeling

Precipitation nowcasting plays a pivotal role in socioeconomic sectors, especially in severe convective weather warnings. Although notable progress has been achieved by approaches mining the spatiotemporal correlations with deep learning, these methods still suffer severe blurriness as the lead time increases, which hampers accurate predictions for extreme precipitation. To alleviate blurriness, researchers explore generative methods conditioned on blurry predictions. However, the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth need to be generated in advance, making the training pipeline cumbersome and limiting the generality of generative models within blur modes that appear in training data. By rethinking the blurriness in precipitation nowcasting as a blur kernel acting on predictions, we propose an unsupervised postprocessing method to eliminate the blurriness without the requirement of training with the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth. Specifically, we utilize blurry predictions to guide the generation process of a pre-trained unconditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to obtain high-fidelity predictions with eliminated blurriness. A zero-shot blur kernel estimation mechanism and an auto-scale denoise guidance strategy are introduced to adapt the unconditional DDPM to any blurriness modes varying from datasets and lead times in precipitation nowcasting. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 precipitation radar datasets, demonstrating the generality and superiority of our method.

FNP: Fourier Neural Processes for Arbitrary-Resolution Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is a vital component in modern global medium-range weather forecasting systems to obtain the best estimation of the atmospheric state by combining the short-term forecast and observations. Recently, AI-based data assimilation approaches have attracted increasing attention for their significant advantages over traditional techniques in terms of computational consumption. However, existing AI-based data assimilation methods can only handle observations with a specific resolution, lacking the compatibility and generalization ability to assimilate observations with other resolutions. Considering that complex real-world observations often have different resolutions, we propose the \textit{\textbf{Fourier Neural Processes}} (FNP) for \textit{arbitrary-resolution data assimilation} in this paper. Leveraging the efficiency of the designed modules and flexible structure of neural processes, FNP achieves state-of-the-art results in assimilating observations with varying resolutions, and also exhibits increasing advantages over the counterparts as the resolution and the amount of observations increase. Moreover, our FNP trained on a fixed resolution can directly handle the assimilation of observations with out-of-distribution resolutions and the observational information reconstruction task without additional fine-tuning, demonstrating its excellent generalization ability across data resolutions as well as across tasks.

Towards an End-to-End Artificial Intelligence Driven Global Weather Forecasting System

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models still rely on analysis or reanalysis products from the traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions, preventing them from being fully independent systems. As a crucial component of an end-to-end global weather forecasting system, data assimilation is vital in generating initial states for forecasting. In this paper, we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables, which learns to generate the analysis from the background and sparse observations. Different from existing assimilation methods, Adas employs the gated convolution module to handle sparse observations and the gated cross-attention module for capturing the interactions between observations and background efficiently, which are guided by the confidence matrix to represent the availability and quality of observations. Then, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based weather forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) and construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. Experiments demonstrate that Adas can assimilate the simulated global observations with the AI-generated background through a one-year simulation and generate high-quality analysis stably in a cyclic manner. Based on the generated analysis, FengWu-Adas exhibits skillful performance and outperforms the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in weather forecasting over seven days.

Associations Between Natural Language Processing (NLP) Enriched Social Determinants of Health and Suicide Death among US Veterans

Importance: Social determinants of health (SDOH) are known to be associated with increased risk of suicidal behaviors, but few studies utilized SDOH from unstructured electronic health record (EHR) notes. Objective: To investigate associations between suicide and recent SDOH, identified using structured and unstructured data. Design: Nested case-control study. Setting: EHR data from the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Participants: 6,122,785 Veterans who received care in the US VHA between October 1, 2010, and September 30, 2015. Exposures: Occurrence of SDOH over a maximum span of two years compared with no occurrence of SDOH. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases of suicide deaths were matched with 4 controls on birth year, cohort entry date, sex, and duration of follow-up. We developed an NLP system to extract SDOH from unstructured notes. Structured data, NLP on unstructured data, and combining them yielded seven, eight and nine SDOH respectively. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results: In our cohort, 8,821 Veterans committed suicide during 23,725,382 person-years of follow-up (incidence rate 37.18 /100,000 person-years). Our cohort was mostly male (92.23%) and white (76.99%). Across the six common SDOH as covariates, NLP-extracted SDOH, on average, covered 84.38% of all SDOH occurrences. All SDOH, measured by structured data and NLP, were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. The SDOH with the largest effects was legal problems (aOR=2.67, 95% CI=2.46-2.89), followed by violence (aOR=2.26, 95% CI=2.11-2.43). NLP-extracted and structured SDOH were also associated with suicide. Conclusions and Relevance: NLP-extracted SDOH were always significantly associated with increased risk of suicide among Veterans, suggesting the potential of NLP in public health studies.