Assessing the Impact of Conspiracy Theories Using Large Language Models

Measuring the relative impact of CTs is important for prioritizing responses and allocating resources effectively, especially during crises. However, assessing the actual impact of CTs on the public poses unique challenges. It requires not only the collection of CT-specific knowledge but also diverse information from social, psychological, and cultural dimensions. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) suggest their potential utility in this context, not only due to their extensive knowledge from large training corpora but also because they can be harnessed for complex reasoning. In this work, we develop datasets of popular CTs with human-annotated impacts. Borrowing insights from human impact assessment processes, we then design tailored strategies to leverage LLMs for performing human-like CT impact assessments. Through rigorous experiments, we textit{discover that an impact assessment mode using multi-step reasoning to analyze more CT-related evidence critically produces accurate results; and most LLMs demonstrate strong bias, such as assigning higher impacts to CTs presented earlier in the prompt, while generating less accurate impact assessments for emotionally charged and verbose CTs.

CAdam: Confidence-Based Optimization for Online Learning

Modern recommendation systems frequently employ online learning to dynamically update their models with freshly collected data. The most commonly used optimizer for updating neural networks in these contexts is the Adam optimizer, which integrates momentum ($m_t$) and adaptive learning rate ($v_t$). However, the volatile nature of online learning data, characterized by its frequent distribution shifts and presence of noises, poses significant challenges to Adam's standard optimization process: (1) Adam may use outdated momentum and the average of squared gradients, resulting in slower adaptation to distribution changes, and (2) Adam's performance is adversely affected by data noise. To mitigate these issues, we introduce CAdam, a confidence-based optimization strategy that assesses the consistence between the momentum and the gradient for each parameter dimension before deciding on updates. If momentum and gradient are in sync, CAdam proceeds with parameter updates according to Adam's original formulation; if not, it temporarily withholds updates and monitors potential shifts in data distribution in subsequent iterations. This method allows CAdam to distinguish between the true distributional shifts and mere noise, and adapt more quickly to new data distributions. Our experiments with both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that CAdam surpasses other well-known optimizers, including the original Adam, in efficiency and noise robustness. Furthermore, in large-scale A/B testing within a live recommendation system, CAdam significantly enhances model performance compared to Adam, leading to substantial increases in the system's gross merchandise volume (GMV).

Spatio-temporal Causal Learning for Streamflow Forecasting

Streamflow plays an essential role in the sustainable planning and management of national water resources. Traditional hydrologic modeling approaches simulate streamflow by establishing connections across multiple physical processes, such as rainfall and runoff. These data, inherently connected both spatially and temporally, possess intrinsic causal relations that can be leveraged for robust and accurate forecasting. Recently, spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have been adopted, excelling in various domains, such as urban traffic management, weather forecasting, and pandemic control, and they also promise advances in streamflow management. However, learning causal relationships directly from vast observational data is theoretically and computationally challenging. In this study, we employ a river flow graph as prior knowledge to facilitate the learning of the causal structure and then use the learned causal graph to predict streamflow at targeted sites. The proposed model, Causal Streamflow Forecasting (CSF) is tested in a real-world study in the Brazos River basin in Texas. Our results demonstrate that our method outperforms regular spatio-temporal graph neural networks and achieves higher computational efficiency compared to traditional simulation methods. By effectively integrating river flow graphs with STGNNs, this research offers a novel approach to streamflow prediction, showcasing the potential of combining advanced neural network techniques with domain-specific knowledge for enhanced performance in hydrologic modeling.

From Generation to Judgment: Opportunities and Challenges of LLM-as-a-judge

Assessment and evaluation have long been critical challenges in artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP). However, traditional methods, whether matching-based or embedding-based, often fall short of judging subtle attributes and delivering satisfactory results. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) inspire the "LLM-as-a-judge" paradigm, where LLMs are leveraged to perform scoring, ranking, or selection across various tasks and applications. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of LLM-based judgment and assessment, offering an in-depth overview to advance this emerging field. We begin by giving detailed definitions from both input and output perspectives. Then we introduce a comprehensive taxonomy to explore LLM-as-a-judge from three dimensions: what to judge, how to judge and where to judge. Finally, we compile benchmarks for evaluating LLM-as-a-judge and highlight key challenges and promising directions, aiming to provide valuable insights and inspire future research in this promising research area. Paper list and more resources about LLM-as-a-judge can be found at \url{https://github.com/llm-as-a-judge/Awesome-LLM-as-a-judge} and \url{https://llm-as-a-judge.github.io}.

Evaluating LLMs Capabilities Towards Understanding Social Dynamics

Social media discourse involves people from different backgrounds, beliefs, and motives. Thus, often such discourse can devolve into toxic interactions. Generative Models, such as Llama and ChatGPT, have recently exploded in popularity due to their capabilities in zero-shot question-answering. Because these models are increasingly being used to ask questions of social significance, a crucial research question is whether they can understand social media dynamics. This work provides a critical analysis regarding generative LLM's ability to understand language and dynamics in social contexts, particularly considering cyberbullying and anti-cyberbullying (posts aimed at reducing cyberbullying) interactions. Specifically, we compare and contrast the capabilities of different large language models (LLMs) to understand three key aspects of social dynamics: language, directionality, and the occurrence of bullying/anti-bullying messages. We found that while fine-tuned LLMs exhibit promising results in some social media understanding tasks (understanding directionality), they presented mixed results in others (proper paraphrasing and bullying/anti-bullying detection). We also found that fine-tuning and prompt engineering mechanisms can have positive effects in some tasks. We believe that a understanding of LLM's capabilities is crucial to design future models that can be effectively used in social applications.

Do LLMs Understand Ambiguity in Text? A Case Study in Open-world Question Answering

Ambiguity in natural language poses significant challenges to Large Language Models (LLMs) used for open-domain question answering. LLMs often struggle with the inherent uncertainties of human communication, leading to misinterpretations, miscommunications, hallucinations, and biased responses. This significantly weakens their ability to be used for tasks like fact-checking, question answering, feature extraction, and sentiment analysis. Using open-domain question answering as a test case, we compare off-the-shelf and few-shot LLM performance, focusing on measuring the impact of explicit disambiguation strategies. We demonstrate how simple, training-free, token-level disambiguation methods may be effectively used to improve LLM performance for ambiguous question answering tasks. We empirically show our findings and discuss best practices and broader impacts regarding ambiguity in LLMs.

A Multi-Task Role-Playing Agent Capable of Imitating Character Linguistic Styles

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has significantly propelled the advancement of Role-Playing Agents (RPAs). However, current Role-Playing Agents predominantly focus on mimicking a character's fundamental attributes while neglecting the replication of linguistic style, and they are incapable of effectively replicating characters when performing tasks beyond multi-turn dialogues, which results in generated responses that lack authenticity. The reason current RPAs lack this capability is due to the nature of existing character datasets, which lack collections of character quotations and are limited to multi-turn dialogue tasks, constraining the RPA's performance across other task domains and failing to mimic a character's linguistic style. To address this gap, we developed a multi-task role-playing dataset named MRstyle, which encompasses a substantial number of real individuals along with their quotations and covers seven different tasks. On this basis, we develop StyleRPA, a Multi-Task Role-Playing Agent (MRPA) that significantly outperforms recent open-source LLMs and RPAs baselines on 7 tasks including Dialogue, Dictionary, Composition, Story Generation, Product Description, Music Commentary, and Open Question Answering. The code and data will be released.

FairSkin: Fair Diffusion for Skin Disease Image Generation

Image generation is a prevailing technique for clinical data augmentation for advancing diagnostic accuracy and reducing healthcare disparities. Diffusion Model (DM) has become a leading method in generating synthetic medical images, but it suffers from a critical twofold bias: (1) The quality of images generated for Caucasian individuals is significantly higher, as measured by the Frechet Inception Distance (FID). (2) The ability of the downstream-task learner to learn critical features from disease images varies across different skin tones. These biases pose significant risks, particularly in skin disease detection, where underrepresentation of certain skin tones can lead to misdiagnosis or neglect of specific conditions. To address these challenges, we propose FairSkin, a novel DM framework that mitigates these biases through a three-level resampling mechanism, ensuring fairer representation across racial and disease categories. Our approach significantly improves the diversity and quality of generated images, contributing to more equitable skin disease detection in clinical settings.

ODDN: Addressing Unpaired Data Challenges in Open-World Deepfake Detection on Online Social Networks

Despite significant advances in deepfake detection, handling varying image quality, especially due to different compressions on online social networks (OSNs), remains challenging. Current methods succeed by leveraging correlations between paired images, whether raw or compressed. However, in open-world scenarios, paired data is scarce, with compressed images readily available but corresponding raw versions difficult to obtain. This imbalance, where unpaired data vastly outnumbers paired data, often leads to reduced detection performance, as existing methods struggle without corresponding raw images. To overcome this issue, we propose a novel approach named the open-world deepfake detection network (ODDN), which comprises two core modules: open-world data aggregation (ODA) and compression-discard gradient correction (CGC). ODA effectively aggregates correlations between compressed and raw samples through both fine-grained and coarse-grained analyses for paired and unpaired data, respectively. CGC incorporates a compression-discard gradient correction to further enhance performance across diverse compression methods in OSN. This technique optimizes the training gradient to ensure the model remains insensitive to compression variations. Extensive experiments conducted on 17 popular deepfake datasets demonstrate the superiority of the ODDN over SOTA baselines.

LLM-based Optimization of Compound AI Systems: A Survey

In a compound AI system, components such as an LLM call, a retriever, a code interpreter, or tools are interconnected. The system's behavior is primarily driven by parameters such as instructions or tool definitions. Recent advancements enable end-to-end optimization of these parameters using an LLM. Notably, leveraging an LLM as an optimizer is particularly efficient because it avoids gradient computation and can generate complex code and instructions. This paper presents a survey of the principles and emerging trends in LLM-based optimization of compound AI systems. It covers archetypes of compound AI systems, approaches to LLM-based end-to-end optimization, and insights into future directions and broader impacts. Importantly, this survey uses concepts from program analysis to provide a unified view of how an LLM optimizer is prompted to optimize a compound AI system. The exhaustive list of paper is provided at https://github.com/linyuhongg/LLM-based-Optimization-of-Compound-AI-Systems.