The Tabular Foundation Model TabPFN Outperforms Specialized Time Series Forecasting Models Based on Simple Features

Foundation models have become popular in forecasting due to their ability to make accurate predictions, even with minimal fine-tuning on specific datasets. In this paper, we demonstrate how the newly released regression variant of TabPFN, a general tabular foundation model, can be applied to time series forecasting. We propose a straightforward approach, TabPFN-TS, which pairs TabPFN with simple feature engineering to achieve strong forecasting performance. Despite its simplicity and with only 11M parameters, TabPFN-TS outperforms Chronos-Mini, a model of similar size, and matches or even slightly outperforms Chronos-Large, which has 65-fold more parameters. A key strength of our method lies in its reliance solely on artificial data during pre-training, avoiding the need for large training datasets and eliminating the risk of benchmark contamination.

Unlocking State-Tracking in Linear RNNs Through Negative Eigenvalues

Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (LRNNs) such as Mamba, RWKV, GLA, mLSTM, and DeltaNet have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers in large language modeling, offering linear scaling with sequence length and improved training efficiency. However, LRNNs struggle to perform state-tracking which may impair performance in tasks such as code evaluation or tracking a chess game. Even parity, the simplest state-tracking task, which non-linear RNNs like LSTM handle effectively, cannot be solved by current LRNNs. Recently, Sarrof et al. (2024) demonstrated that the failure of LRNNs like Mamba to solve parity stems from restricting the value range of their diagonal state-transition matrices to $[0, 1]$ and that incorporating negative values can resolve this issue. We extend this result to non-diagonal LRNNs, which have recently shown promise in models such as DeltaNet. We prove that finite precision LRNNs with state-transition matrices having only positive eigenvalues cannot solve parity, while complex eigenvalues are needed to count modulo $3$. Notably, we also prove that LRNNs can learn any regular language when their state-transition matrices are products of identity minus vector outer product matrices, each with eigenvalues in the range $[-1, 1]$. Our empirical results confirm that extending the eigenvalue range of models like Mamba and DeltaNet to include negative values not only enables them to solve parity but consistently improves their performance on state-tracking tasks. Furthermore, pre-training LRNNs with an extended eigenvalue range for language modeling achieves comparable performance and stability while showing promise on code and math data. Our work enhances the expressivity of modern LRNNs, broadening their applicability without changing the cost of training or inference.

Drift-Resilient TabPFN: In-Context Learning Temporal Distribution Shifts on Tabular Data

While most ML models expect independent and identically distributed data, this assumption is often violated in real-world scenarios due to distribution shifts, resulting in the degradation of machine learning model performance. Until now, no tabular method has consistently outperformed classical supervised learning, which ignores these shifts. To address temporal distribution shifts, we present Drift-Resilient TabPFN, a fresh approach based on In-Context Learning with a Prior-Data Fitted Network that learns the learning algorithm itself: it accepts the entire training dataset as input and makes predictions on the test set in a single forward pass. Specifically, it learns to approximate Bayesian inference on synthetic datasets drawn from a prior that specifies the model's inductive bias. This prior is based on structural causal models (SCM), which gradually shift over time. To model shifts of these causal models, we use a secondary SCM, that specifies changes in the primary model parameters. The resulting Drift-Resilient TabPFN can be applied to unseen data, runs in seconds on small to moderately sized datasets and needs no hyperparameter tuning. Comprehensive evaluations across 18 synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate large performance improvements over a wide range of baselines, such as XGB, CatBoost, TabPFN, and applicable methods featured in the Wild-Time benchmark. Compared to the strongest baselines, it improves accuracy from 0.688 to 0.744 and ROC AUC from 0.786 to 0.832 while maintaining stronger calibration. This approach could serve as significant groundwork for further research on out-of-distribution prediction.

Warmstarting for Scaling Language Models

Scaling model sizes to scale performance has worked remarkably well for the current large language models paradigm. The research and empirical findings of various scaling studies led to novel scaling results and laws that guides subsequent research. High training costs for contemporary scales of data and models result in a lack of thorough understanding of how to tune and arrive at such training setups. One direction to ameliorate the cost of pretraining large models is to warmstart the large-scale training from smaller models that are cheaper to tune. In this work, we attempt to understand if the behavior of optimal hyperparameters can be retained under warmstarting for scaling. We explore simple operations that allow the application of theoretically motivated methods of zero-shot transfer of optimal hyperparameters using {\mu}Transfer. We investigate the aspects that contribute to the speedup in convergence and the preservation of stable training dynamics under warmstarting with {\mu}Transfer. We find that shrinking smaller model weights, zero-padding, and perturbing the resulting larger model with scaled initialization from {\mu}P enables effective warmstarting of $\mut{}$.

Transfer Learning for Finetuning Large Language Models

As the landscape of large language models expands, efficiently finetuning for specific tasks becomes increasingly crucial. At the same time, the landscape of parameter-efficient finetuning methods rapidly expands. Consequently, practitioners face a multitude of complex choices when searching for an optimal finetuning pipeline for large language models. To reduce the complexity for practitioners, we investigate transfer learning for finetuning large language models and aim to transfer knowledge about configurations from related finetuning tasks to a new task. In this work, we transfer learn finetuning by meta-learning performance and cost surrogate models for grey-box meta-optimization from a new meta-dataset. Counter-intuitively, we propose to rely only on transfer learning for new datasets. Thus, we do not use task-specific Bayesian optimization but prioritize knowledge transferred from related tasks over task-specific feedback. We evaluate our method on eight synthetic question-answer datasets and a meta-dataset consisting of 1,800 runs of finetuning Microsoft's Phi-3. Our transfer learning is superior to zero-shot, default finetuning, and meta-optimization baselines. Our results demonstrate the transferability of finetuning to adapt large language models more effectively.

Ensembling Finetuned Language Models for Text Classification

Finetuning is a common practice widespread across different communities to adapt pretrained models to particular tasks. Text classification is one of these tasks for which many pretrained models are available. On the other hand, ensembles of neural networks are typically used to boost performance and provide reliable uncertainty estimates. However, ensembling pretrained models for text classification is not a well-studied avenue. In this paper, we present a metadataset with predictions from five large finetuned models on six datasets, and report results of different ensembling strategies from these predictions. Our results shed light on how ensembling can improve the performance of finetuned text classifiers and incentivize future adoption of ensembles in such tasks.

Large Language Models Engineer Too Many Simple Features For Tabular Data

Tabular machine learning problems often require time-consuming and labor-intensive feature engineering. Recent efforts have focused on using large language models (LLMs) to capitalize on their potential domain knowledge. At the same time, researchers have observed ethically concerning negative biases in other LLM-related use cases, such as text generation. These developments motivated us to investigate whether LLMs exhibit a bias that negatively impacts the performance of feature engineering. While not ethically concerning, such a bias could hinder practitioners from fully utilizing LLMs for automated data science. Therefore, we propose a method to detect potential biases by detecting anomalies in the frequency of operators (e.g., adding two features) suggested by LLMs when engineering new features. Our experiments evaluate the bias of four LLMs, two big frontier and two small open-source models, across 27 tabular datasets. Our results indicate that LLMs are biased toward simple operators, such as addition, and can fail to utilize more complex operators, such as grouping followed by aggregations. Furthermore, the bias can negatively impact the predictive performance when using LLM-generated features. Our results call for mitigating bias when using LLMs for feature engineering.

A Human-in-the-Loop Fairness-Aware Model Selection Framework for Complex Fairness Objective Landscapes

Fairness-aware Machine Learning (FairML) applications are often characterized by complex social objectives and legal requirements, frequently involving multiple, potentially conflicting notions of fairness. Despite the well-known Impossibility Theorem of Fairness and extensive theoretical research on the statistical and socio-technical trade-offs between fairness metrics, many FairML tools still optimize or constrain for a single fairness objective. However, this one-sided optimization can inadvertently lead to violations of other relevant notions of fairness. In this socio-technical and empirical study, we frame fairness as a many-objective (MaO) problem by treating fairness metrics as conflicting objectives. We introduce ManyFairHPO, a human-in-the-loop, fairness-aware model selection framework that enables practitioners to effectively navigate complex and nuanced fairness objective landscapes. ManyFairHPO aids in the identification, evaluation, and balancing of fairness metric conflicts and their related social consequences, leading to more informed and socially responsible model-selection decisions. Through a comprehensive empirical evaluation and a case study on the Law School Admissions problem, we demonstrate the effectiveness of ManyFairHPO in balancing multiple fairness objectives, mitigating risks such as self-fulfilling prophecies, and providing interpretable insights to guide stakeholders in making fairness-aware modeling decisions.

Mamba4Cast: Efficient Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting with State Space Models

This paper introduces Mamba4Cast, a zero-shot foundation model for time series forecasting. Based on the Mamba architecture and inspired by Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), Mamba4Cast generalizes robustly across diverse time series tasks without the need for dataset specific fine-tuning. Mamba4Cast's key innovation lies in its ability to achieve strong zero-shot performance on real-world datasets while having much lower inference times than time series foundation models based on the transformer architecture. Trained solely on synthetic data, the model generates forecasts for entire horizons in a single pass, outpacing traditional auto-regressive approaches. Our experiments show that Mamba4Cast performs competitively against other state-of-the-art foundation models in various data sets while scaling significantly better with the prediction length. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/automl/Mamba4Cast.

LLM Compression with Neural Architecture Search

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable reasoning abilities, allowing them to generalize across a wide range of downstream tasks, such as commonsense reasoning or instruction following. However, as LLMs scale, inference costs become increasingly prohibitive, accumulating significantly over their life cycle. This poses the question: Can we compress pre-trained LLMs to meet diverse size and latency requirements? We leverage Neural Architecture Search (NAS) to compress LLMs by pruning structural components, such as attention heads, neurons, and layers, aiming to achieve a Pareto-optimal balance between performance and efficiency. While NAS already achieved promising results on small language models in previous work, in this paper we propose various extensions that allow us to scale to LLMs. Compared to structural pruning baselines, we show that NAS improves performance up to 3.4% on MMLU with an on-device latency speedup.