Reevaluation of Inductive Link Prediction

Within this paper, we show that the evaluation protocol currently used for inductive link prediction is heavily flawed as it relies on ranking the true entity in a small set of randomly sampled negative entities. Due to the limited size of the set of negatives, a simple rule-based baseline can achieve state-of-the-art results, which simply ranks entities higher based on the validity of their type. As a consequence of these insights, we reevaluate current approaches for inductive link prediction on several benchmarks using the link prediction protocol usually applied to the transductive setting. As some inductive methods suffer from scalability issues when evaluated in this setting, we propose and apply additionally an improved sampling protocol, which does not suffer from the problem mentioned above. The results of our evaluation differ drastically from the results reported in so far.

Fact Probability Vector Based Goal Recognition

We present a new approach to goal recognition that involves comparing observed facts with their expected probabilities. These probabilities depend on a specified goal g and initial state s0. Our method maps these probabilities and observed facts into a real vector space to compute heuristic values for potential goals. These values estimate the likelihood of a given goal being the true objective of the observed agent. As obtaining exact expected probabilities for observed facts in an observation sequence is often practically infeasible, we propose and empirically validate a method for approximating these probabilities. Our empirical results show that the proposed approach offers improved goal recognition precision compared to state-of-the-art techniques while reducing computational complexity.

SYMPOL: Symbolic Tree-Based On-Policy Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has seen significant success across various domains, but its adoption is often limited by the black-box nature of neural network policies, making them difficult to interpret. In contrast, symbolic policies allow representing decision-making strategies in a compact and interpretable way. However, learning symbolic policies directly within on-policy methods remains challenging. In this paper, we introduce SYMPOL, a novel method for SYMbolic tree-based on-POLicy RL. SYMPOL employs a tree-based model integrated with a policy gradient method, enabling the agent to learn and adapt its actions while maintaining a high level of interpretability. We evaluate SYMPOL on a set of benchmark RL tasks, demonstrating its superiority over alternative tree-based RL approaches in terms of performance and interpretability. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method, that allows a gradient-based end-to-end learning of interpretable, axis-aligned decision trees on-policy. Therefore, SYMPOL can become the foundation for a new class of interpretable RL based on decision trees. Our implementation is available under: https://github.com/s-marton/SYMPOL

AgentSimulator: An Agent-based Approach for Data-driven Business Process Simulation

Business process simulation (BPS) is a versatile technique for estimating process performance across various scenarios. Traditionally, BPS approaches employ a control-flow-first perspective by enriching a process model with simulation parameters. Although such approaches can mimic the behavior of centrally orchestrated processes, such as those supported by workflow systems, current control-flow-first approaches cannot faithfully capture the dynamics of real-world processes that involve distinct resource behavior and decentralized decision-making. Recognizing this issue, this paper introduces AgentSimulator, a resource-first BPS approach that discovers a multi-agent system from an event log, modeling distinct resource behaviors and interaction patterns to simulate the underlying process. Our experiments show that AgentSimulator achieves state-of-the-art simulation accuracy with significantly lower computation times than existing approaches while providing high interpretability and adaptability to different types of process-execution scenarios.

Analytical Uncertainty-Based Loss Weighting in Multi-Task Learning

With the rise of neural networks in various domains, multi-task learning (MTL) gained significant relevance. A key challenge in MTL is balancing individual task losses during neural network training to improve performance and efficiency through knowledge sharing across tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a novel task-weighting method by building on the most prevalent approach of Uncertainty Weighting and computing analytically optimal uncertainty-based weights, normalized by a softmax function with tunable temperature. Our approach yields comparable results to the combinatorially prohibitive, brute-force approach of Scalarization while offering a more cost-effective yet high-performing alternative. We conduct an extensive benchmark on various datasets and architectures. Our method consistently outperforms six other common weighting methods. Furthermore, we report noteworthy experimental findings for the practical application of MTL. For example, larger networks diminish the influence of weighting methods, and tuning the weight decay has a low impact compared to the learning rate.

A Data-Centric Perspective on Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Tabular Data

Tabular data is prevalent in real-world machine learning applications, and new models for supervised learning of tabular data are frequently proposed. Comparative studies assessing the performance of models typically consist of model-centric evaluation setups with overly standardized data preprocessing. This paper demonstrates that such model-centric evaluations are biased, as real-world modeling pipelines often require dataset-specific preprocessing and feature engineering. Therefore, we propose a data-centric evaluation framework. We select 10 relevant datasets from Kaggle competitions and implement expert-level preprocessing pipelines for each dataset. We conduct experiments with different preprocessing pipelines and hyperparameter optimization (HPO) regimes to quantify the impact of model selection, HPO, feature engineering, and test-time adaptation. Our main findings are: 1. After dataset-specific feature engineering, model rankings change considerably, performance differences decrease, and the importance of model selection reduces. 2. Recent models, despite their measurable progress, still significantly benefit from manual feature engineering. This holds true for both tree-based models and neural networks. 3. While tabular data is typically considered static, samples are often collected over time, and adapting to distribution shifts can be important even in supposedly static data. These insights suggest that research efforts should be directed toward a data-centric perspective, acknowledging that tabular data requires feature engineering and often exhibits temporal characteristics.

Enabling Mixed Effects Neural Networks for Diverse, Clustered Data Using Monte Carlo Methods

Neural networks often assume independence among input data samples, disregarding correlations arising from inherent clustering patterns in real-world datasets (e.g., due to different sites or repeated measurements). Recently, mixed effects neural networks (MENNs) which separate cluster-specific 'random effects' from cluster-invariant 'fixed effects' have been proposed to improve generalization and interpretability for clustered data. However, existing methods only allow for approximate quantification of cluster effects and are limited to regression and binary targets with only one clustering feature. We present MC-GMENN, a novel approach employing Monte Carlo methods to train Generalized Mixed Effects Neural Networks. We empirically demonstrate that MC-GMENN outperforms existing mixed effects deep learning models in terms of generalization performance, time complexity, and quantification of inter-cluster variance. Additionally, MC-GMENN is applicable to a wide range of datasets, including multi-class classification tasks with multiple high-cardinality categorical features. For these datasets, we show that MC-GMENN outperforms conventional encoding and embedding methods, simultaneously offering a principled methodology for interpreting the effects of clustering patterns.

TGB 2.0: A Benchmark for Learning on Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Heterogeneous Graphs

Multi-relational temporal graphs are powerful tools for modeling real-world data, capturing the evolving and interconnected nature of entities over time. Recently, many novel models are proposed for ML on such graphs intensifying the need for robust evaluation and standardized benchmark datasets. However, the availability of such resources remains scarce and evaluation faces added complexity due to reproducibility issues in experimental protocols. To address these challenges, we introduce Temporal Graph Benchmark 2.0 (TGB 2.0), a novel benchmarking framework tailored for evaluating methods for predicting future links on Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Temporal Heterogeneous Graphs with a focus on large-scale datasets, extending the Temporal Graph Benchmark. TGB 2.0 facilitates comprehensive evaluations by presenting eight novel datasets spanning five domains with up to 53 million edges. TGB 2.0 datasets are significantly larger than existing datasets in terms of number of nodes, edges, or timestamps. In addition, TGB 2.0 provides a reproducible and realistic evaluation pipeline for multi-relational temporal graphs. Through extensive experimentation, we observe that 1) leveraging edge-type information is crucial to obtain high performance, 2) simple heuristic baselines are often competitive with more complex methods, 3) most methods fail to run on our largest datasets, highlighting the need for research on more scalable methods.

History repeats Itself: A Baseline for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) Forecasting aims at predicting links in Knowledge Graphs for future timesteps based on a history of Knowledge Graphs. To this day, standardized evaluation protocols and rigorous comparison across TKG models are available, but the importance of simple baselines is often neglected in the evaluation, which prevents researchers from discerning actual and fictitious progress. We propose to close this gap by designing an intuitive baseline for TKG Forecasting based on predicting recurring facts. Compared to most TKG models, it requires little hyperparameter tuning and no iterative training. Further, it can help to identify failure modes in existing approaches. The empirical findings are quite unexpected: compared to 11 methods on five datasets, our baseline ranks first or third in three of them, painting a radically different picture of the predictive quality of the state of the art.

PGTNet: A Process Graph Transformer Network for Remaining Time Prediction of Business Process Instances

We present PGTNet, an approach that transforms event logs into graph datasets and leverages graph-oriented data for training Process Graph Transformer Networks to predict the remaining time of business process instances. PGTNet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning approaches across a diverse range of 20 publicly available real-world event logs. Notably, our approach is most promising for highly complex processes, where existing deep learning approaches encounter difficulties stemming from their limited ability to learn control-flow relationships among process activities and capture long-range dependencies. PGTNet addresses these challenges, while also being able to consider multiple process perspectives during the learning process.