Mamba4Cast: Efficient Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting with State Space Models

This paper introduces Mamba4Cast, a zero-shot foundation model for time series forecasting. Based on the Mamba architecture and inspired by Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), Mamba4Cast generalizes robustly across diverse time series tasks without the need for dataset specific fine-tuning. Mamba4Cast's key innovation lies in its ability to achieve strong zero-shot performance on real-world datasets while having much lower inference times than time series foundation models based on the transformer architecture. Trained solely on synthetic data, the model generates forecasts for entire horizons in a single pass, outpacing traditional auto-regressive approaches. Our experiments show that Mamba4Cast performs competitively against other state-of-the-art foundation models in various data sets while scaling significantly better with the prediction length. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/automl/Mamba4Cast.

GAMformer: In-Context Learning for Generalized Additive Models

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are widely recognized for their ability to create fully interpretable machine learning models for tabular data. Traditionally, training GAMs involves iterative learning algorithms, such as splines, boosted trees, or neural networks, which refine the additive components through repeated error reduction. In this paper, we introduce GAMformer, the first method to leverage in-context learning to estimate shape functions of a GAM in a single forward pass, representing a significant departure from the conventional iterative approaches to GAM fitting. Building on previous research applying in-context learning to tabular data, we exclusively use complex, synthetic data to train GAMformer, yet find it extrapolates well to real-world data. Our experiments show that GAMformer performs on par with other leading GAMs across various classification benchmarks while generating highly interpretable shape functions.

ARLBench: Flexible and Efficient Benchmarking for Hyperparameter Optimization in Reinforcement Learning

Hyperparameters are a critical factor in reliably training well-performing reinforcement learning (RL) agents. Unfortunately, developing and evaluating automated approaches for tuning such hyperparameters is both costly and time-consuming. As a result, such approaches are often only evaluated on a single domain or algorithm, making comparisons difficult and limiting insights into their generalizability. We propose ARLBench, a benchmark for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) in RL that allows comparisons of diverse HPO approaches while being highly efficient in evaluation. To enable research into HPO in RL, even in settings with low compute resources, we select a representative subset of HPO tasks spanning a variety of algorithm and environment combinations. This selection allows for generating a performance profile of an automated RL (AutoRL) method using only a fraction of the compute previously necessary, enabling a broader range of researchers to work on HPO in RL. With the extensive and large-scale dataset on hyperparameter landscapes that our selection is based on, ARLBench is an efficient, flexible, and future-oriented foundation for research on AutoRL. Both the benchmark and the dataset are available at https://github.com/automl/arlbench.

Deep Non-Parametric Time Series Forecaster

This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions by sampling from the empirical distribution according to a tunable strategy. By virtue of this, the model is always able to produce reasonable forecasts (i.e., predictions within the observed data range) without fail unlike classical models that suffer from numerical stability on some data distributions. Moreover, we develop a global version of the proposed method that automatically learns the sampling strategy by exploiting the information across multiple related time series. The empirical evaluation shows that the proposed methods have reasonable and consistent performance across all datasets, proving them to be strong baselines to be considered in one's forecasting toolbox.

TabRepo: A Large Scale Repository of Tabular Model Evaluations and its AutoML Applications

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1206 models evaluated on 200 regression and classification datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our datasets in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at no cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Obeying the Order: Introducing Ordered Transfer Hyperparameter Optimisation

We introduce ordered transfer hyperparameter optimisation (OTHPO), a version of transfer learning for hyperparameter optimisation (HPO) where the tasks follow a sequential order. Unlike for state-of-the-art transfer HPO, the assumption is that each task is most correlated to those immediately before it. This matches many deployed settings, where hyperparameters are retuned as more data is collected; for instance tuning a sequence of movie recommendation systems as more movies and ratings are added. We propose a formal definition, outline the differences to related problems and propose a basic OTHPO method that outperforms state-of-the-art transfer HPO. We empirically show the importance of taking order into account using ten benchmarks. The benchmarks are in the setting of gradually accumulating data, and span XGBoost, random forest, approximate k-nearest neighbor, elastic net, support vector machines and a separate real-world motivated optimisation problem. We open source the benchmarks to foster future research on ordered transfer HPO.

Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regression

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

Criteria for Classifying Forecasting Methods

Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a "machine learning" or "statistical" nature has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as exemplified by the M4 competition and the conclusion drawn by the organizers. We argue that this distinction does not stem from fundamental differences in the methods assigned to either class. Instead, this distinction is probably of a tribal nature, which limits the insights into the appropriateness and effectiveness of different forecasting methods. We provide alternative characteristics of forecasting methods which, in our view, allow to draw meaningful conclusions. Further, we discuss areas of forecasting which could benefit most from cross-pollination between the ML and the statistics communities.

Multi-Objective Model Selection for Time Series Forecasting

Research on time series forecasting has predominantly focused on developing methods that improve accuracy. However, other criteria such as training time or latency are critical in many real-world applications. We therefore address the question of how to choose an appropriate forecasting model for a given dataset among the plethora of available forecasting methods when accuracy is only one of many criteria. For this, our contributions are two-fold. First, we present a comprehensive benchmark, evaluating 7 classical and 6 deep learning forecasting methods on 44 heterogeneous, publicly available datasets. The benchmark code is open-sourced along with evaluations and forecasts for all methods. These evaluations enable us to answer open questions such as the amount of data required for deep learning models to outperform classical ones. Second, we leverage the benchmark evaluations to learn good defaults that consider multiple objectives such as accuracy and latency. By learning a mapping from forecasting models to performance metrics, we show that our method PARETOSELECT is able to accurately select models from the Pareto front -- alleviating the need to train or evaluate many forecasting models for model selection. To the best of our knowledge, PARETOSELECT constitutes the first method to learn default models in a multi-objective setting.

Meta-Forecasting by combining Global Deep Representations with Local Adaptation

While classical time series forecasting considers individual time series in isolation, recent advances based on deep learning showed that jointly learning from a large pool of related time series can boost the forecasting accuracy. However, the accuracy of these methods suffers greatly when modeling out-of-sample time series, significantly limiting their applicability compared to classical forecasting methods. To bridge this gap, we adopt a meta-learning view of the time series forecasting problem. We introduce a novel forecasting method, called Meta Global-Local Auto-Regression (Meta-GLAR), that adapts to each time series by learning in closed-form the mapping from the representations produced by a recurrent neural network (RNN) to one-step-ahead forecasts. Crucially, the parameters ofthe RNN are learned across multiple time series by backpropagating through the closed-form adaptation mechanism. In our extensive empirical evaluation we show that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art in out-of-sample forecasting accuracy reported in earlier work.