Scaling Laws for Predicting Downstream Performance in LLMs

Precise estimation of downstream performance in large language models (LLMs) prior to training is essential for guiding their development process. Scaling laws analysis utilizes the statistics of a series of significantly smaller sampling language models (LMs) to predict the performance of the target LLM. For downstream performance prediction, the critical challenge lies in the emergent abilities in LLMs that occur beyond task-specific computational thresholds. In this work, we focus on the pre-training loss as a more computation-efficient metric for performance estimation. Our two-stage approach consists of first estimating a function that maps computational resources (e.g., FLOPs) to the pre-training Loss using a series of sampling models, followed by mapping the pre-training loss to downstream task Performance after the critical "emergent phase". In preliminary experiments, this FLP solution accurately predicts the performance of LLMs with 7B and 13B parameters using a series of sampling LMs up to 3B, achieving error margins of 5% and 10%, respectively, and significantly outperforming the FLOPs-to-Performance approach. This motivates FLP-M, a fundamental approach for performance prediction that addresses the practical need to integrate datasets from multiple sources during pre-training, specifically blending general corpora with code data to accurately represent the common necessity. FLP-M extends the power law analytical function to predict domain-specific pre-training loss based on FLOPs across data sources, and employs a two-layer neural network to model the non-linear relationship between multiple domain-specific loss and downstream performance. By utilizing a 3B LLM trained on a specific ratio and a series of smaller sampling LMs, FLP-M can effectively forecast the performance of 3B and 7B LLMs across various data mixtures for most benchmarks within 10% error margins.

Inductive or Deductive? Rethinking the Fundamental Reasoning Abilities of LLMs

Reasoning encompasses two typical types: deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning. Despite extensive research into the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), most studies have failed to rigorously differentiate between inductive and deductive reasoning, leading to a blending of the two. This raises an essential question: In LLM reasoning, which poses a greater challenge - deductive or inductive reasoning? While the deductive reasoning capabilities of LLMs, (i.e. their capacity to follow instructions in reasoning tasks), have received considerable attention, their abilities in true inductive reasoning remain largely unexplored. To investigate into the true inductive reasoning capabilities of LLMs, we propose a novel framework, SolverLearner. This framework enables LLMs to learn the underlying function (i.e., $y = f_w(x)$), that maps input data points $(x)$ to their corresponding output values $(y)$, using only in-context examples. By focusing on inductive reasoning and separating it from LLM-based deductive reasoning, we can isolate and investigate inductive reasoning of LLMs in its pure form via SolverLearner. Our observations reveal that LLMs demonstrate remarkable inductive reasoning capabilities through SolverLearner, achieving near-perfect performance with ACC of 1 in most cases. Surprisingly, despite their strong inductive reasoning abilities, LLMs tend to relatively lack deductive reasoning capabilities, particularly in tasks involving ``counterfactual'' reasoning.

Concept2Box: Joint Geometric Embeddings for Learning Two-View Knowledge Graphs

Knowledge graph embeddings (KGE) have been extensively studied to embed large-scale relational data for many real-world applications. Existing methods have long ignored the fact many KGs contain two fundamentally different views: high-level ontology-view concepts and fine-grained instance-view entities. They usually embed all nodes as vectors in one latent space. However, a single geometric representation fails to capture the structural differences between two views and lacks probabilistic semantics towards concepts' granularity. We propose Concept2Box, a novel approach that jointly embeds the two views of a KG using dual geometric representations. We model concepts with box embeddings, which learn the hierarchy structure and complex relations such as overlap and disjoint among them. Box volumes can be interpreted as concepts' granularity. Different from concepts, we model entities as vectors. To bridge the gap between concept box embeddings and entity vector embeddings, we propose a novel vector-to-box distance metric and learn both embeddings jointly. Experiments on both the public DBpedia KG and a newly-created industrial KG showed the effectiveness of Concept2Box.

Label-Efficient Self-Training for Attribute Extraction from Semi-Structured Web Documents

Extracting structured information from HTML documents is a long-studied problem with a broad range of applications, including knowledge base construction, faceted search, and personalized recommendation. Prior works rely on a few human-labeled web pages from each target website or thousands of human-labeled web pages from some seed websites to train a transferable extraction model that generalizes on unseen target websites. Noisy content, low site-level consistency, and lack of inter-annotator agreement make labeling web pages a time-consuming and expensive ordeal. We develop LEAST -- a Label-Efficient Self-Training method for Semi-Structured Web Documents to overcome these limitations. LEAST utilizes a few human-labeled pages to pseudo-annotate a large number of unlabeled web pages from the target vertical. It trains a transferable web-extraction model on both human-labeled and pseudo-labeled samples using self-training. To mitigate error propagation due to noisy training samples, LEAST re-weights each training sample based on its estimated label accuracy and incorporates it in training. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to propose end-to-end training for transferable web extraction models utilizing only a few human-labeled pages. Experiments on a large-scale public dataset show that using less than ten human-labeled pages from each seed website for training, a LEAST-trained model outperforms previous state-of-the-art by more than 26 average F1 points on unseen websites, reducing the number of human-labeled pages to achieve similar performance by more than 10x.

DOM-LM: Learning Generalizable Representations for HTML Documents

HTML documents are an important medium for disseminating information on the Web for human consumption. An HTML document presents information in multiple text formats including unstructured text, structured key-value pairs, and tables. Effective representation of these documents is essential for machine understanding to enable a wide range of applications, such as Question Answering, Web Search, and Personalization. Existing work has either represented these documents using visual features extracted by rendering them in a browser, which is typically computationally expensive, or has simply treated them as plain text documents, thereby failing to capture useful information presented in their HTML structure. We argue that the text and HTML structure together convey important semantics of the content and therefore warrant a special treatment for their representation learning. In this paper, we introduce a novel representation learning approach for web pages, dubbed DOM-LM, which addresses the limitations of existing approaches by encoding both text and DOM tree structure with a transformer-based encoder and learning generalizable representations for HTML documents via self-supervised pre-training. We evaluate DOM-LM on a variety of webpage understanding tasks, including Attribute Extraction, Open Information Extraction, and Question Answering. Our extensive experiments show that DOM-LM consistently outperforms all baselines designed for these tasks. In particular, DOM-LM demonstrates better generalization performance both in few-shot and zero-shot settings, making it attractive for making it suitable for real-world application settings with limited labeled data.

RATE: Overcoming Noise and Sparsity of Textual Features in Real-Time Location Estimation

Real-time location inference of social media users is the fundamental of some spatial applications such as localized search and event detection. While tweet text is the most commonly used feature in location estimation, most of the prior works suffer from either the noise or the sparsity of textual features. In this paper, we aim to tackle these two problems. We use topic modeling as a building block to characterize the geographic topic variation and lexical variation so that "one-hot" encoding vectors will no longer be directly used. We also incorporate other features which can be extracted through the Twitter streaming API to overcome the noise problem. Experimental results show that our RATE algorithm outperforms several benchmark methods, both in the precision of region classification and the mean distance error of latitude and longitude regression.

TCN: Table Convolutional Network for Web Table Interpretation

Information extraction from semi-structured webpages provides valuable long-tailed facts for augmenting knowledge graph. Relational Web tables are a critical component containing additional entities and attributes of rich and diverse knowledge. However, extracting knowledge from relational tables is challenging because of sparse contextual information. Existing work linearize table cells and heavily rely on modifying deep language models such as BERT which only captures related cells information in the same table. In this work, we propose a novel relational table representation learning approach considering both the intra- and inter-table contextual information. On one hand, the proposed Table Convolutional Network model employs the attention mechanism to adaptively focus on the most informative intra-table cells of the same row or column; and, on the other hand, it aggregates inter-table contextual information from various types of implicit connections between cells across different tables. Specifically, we propose three novel aggregation modules for (i) cells of the same value, (ii) cells of the same schema position, and (iii) cells linked to the same page topic. We further devise a supervised multi-task training objective for jointly predicting column type and pairwise column relation, as well as a table cell recovery objective for pre-training. Experiments on real Web table datasets demonstrate our method can outperform competitive baselines by +4.8% of F1 for column type prediction and by +4.1% of F1 for pairwise column relation prediction.

Discover Your Social Identity from What You Tweet: a Content Based Approach

An identity denotes the role an individual or a group plays in highly differentiated contemporary societies. In this paper, our goal is to classify Twitter users based on their role identities. We first collect a coarse-grained public figure dataset automatically, then manually label a more fine-grained identity dataset. We propose a hierarchical self-attention neural network for Twitter user role identity classification. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms multiple baselines. We further propose a transfer learning scheme that improves our model's performance by a large margin. Such transfer learning also greatly reduces the need for a large amount of human labeled data.

A Hierarchical Location Prediction Neural Network for Twitter User Geolocation

Accurate estimation of user location is important for many online services. Previous neural network based methods largely ignore the hierarchical structure among locations. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical location prediction neural network for Twitter user geolocation. Our model first predicts the home country for a user, then uses the country result to guide the city-level prediction. In addition, we employ a character-aware word embedding layer to overcome the noisy information in tweets. With the feature fusion layer, our model can accommodate various feature combinations and achieves state-of-the-art results over three commonly used benchmarks under different feature settings. It not only improves the prediction accuracy but also greatly reduces the mean error distance.

Parameterized Convolutional Neural Networks for Aspect Level Sentiment Classification

We introduce a novel parameterized convolutional neural network for aspect level sentiment classification. Using parameterized filters and parameterized gates, we incorporate aspect information into convolutional neural networks (CNN). Experiments demonstrate that our parameterized filters and parameterized gates effectively capture the aspect-specific features, and our CNN-based models achieve excellent results on SemEval 2014 datasets.