Ride-Sourcing Vehicle Rebalancing with Service Accessibility Guarantees via Constrained Mean-Field Reinforcement Learning

The rapid expansion of ride-sourcing services such as Uber, Lyft, and Didi Chuxing has fundamentally reshaped urban transportation by offering flexible, on-demand mobility via mobile applications. Despite their convenience, these platforms confront significant operational challenges, particularly vehicle rebalancing - the strategic repositioning of thousands of vehicles to address spatiotemporal mismatches in supply and demand. Inadequate rebalancing results in prolonged rider waiting times, inefficient vehicle utilization, and inequitable distribution of services, leading to disparities in driver availability and income. To tackle these complexities, we introduce scalable continuous-state mean-field control (MFC) and reinforcement learning (MFRL) models that explicitly represent each vehicle's precise location and employ continuous repositioning actions guided by the distribution of other vehicles. To ensure equitable service distribution, an accessibility constraint is integrated within our optimal control formulation, balancing operational efficiency with equitable access to the service across geographic regions. Our approach acknowledges realistic conditions, including inherent stochasticity in transitions, the simultaneous occurrence of vehicle-rider matching, vehicles' rebalancing and cruising, and variability in rider behaviors. Crucially, we relax the traditional mean-field assumption of equal supply-demand volume, better reflecting practical scenarios. Extensive empirical evaluation using real-world data-driven simulation of Shenzhen demonstrates the real-time efficiency and robustness of our approach at the scale of tens of thousands of vehicles. The code is available at https://github.com/mjusup1501/mf-vehicle-rebalancing.

NIL: No-data Imitation Learning by Leveraging Pre-trained Video Diffusion Models

Acquiring physically plausible motor skills across diverse and unconventional morphologies-including humanoid robots, quadrupeds, and animals-is essential for advancing character simulation and robotics. Traditional methods, such as reinforcement learning (RL) are task- and body-specific, require extensive reward function engineering, and do not generalize well. Imitation learning offers an alternative but relies heavily on high-quality expert demonstrations, which are difficult to obtain for non-human morphologies. Video diffusion models, on the other hand, are capable of generating realistic videos of various morphologies, from humans to ants. Leveraging this capability, we propose a data-independent approach for skill acquisition that learns 3D motor skills from 2D-generated videos, with generalization capability to unconventional and non-human forms. Specifically, we guide the imitation learning process by leveraging vision transformers for video-based comparisons by calculating pair-wise distance between video embeddings. Along with video-encoding distance, we also use a computed similarity between segmented video frames as a guidance reward. We validate our method on locomotion tasks involving unique body configurations. In humanoid robot locomotion tasks, we demonstrate that 'No-data Imitation Learning' (NIL) outperforms baselines trained on 3D motion-capture data. Our results highlight the potential of leveraging generative video models for physically plausible skill learning with diverse morphologies, effectively replacing data collection with data generation for imitation learning.

Performance-driven Constrained Optimal Auto-Tuner for MPC

A key challenge in tuning Model Predictive Control (MPC) cost function parameters is to ensure that the system performance stays consistently above a certain threshold. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method, COAT-MPC, Constrained Optimal Auto-Tuner for MPC. With every tuning iteration, COAT-MPC gathers performance data and learns by updating its posterior belief. It explores the tuning parameters' domain towards optimistic parameters in a goal-directed fashion, which is key to its sample efficiency. We theoretically analyze COAT-MPC, showing that it satisfies performance constraints with arbitrarily high probability at all times and provably converges to the optimum performance within finite time. Through comprehensive simulations and comparative analyses with a hardware platform, we demonstrate the effectiveness of COAT-MPC in comparison to classical Bayesian Optimization (BO) and other state-of-the-art methods. When applied to autonomous racing, our approach outperforms baselines in terms of constraint violations and cumulative regret over time.

Confidence Estimation via Sequential Likelihood Mixing

We present a universal framework for constructing confidence sets based on sequential likelihood mixing. Building upon classical results from sequential analysis, we provide a unifying perspective on several recent lines of work, and establish fundamental connections between sequential mixing, Bayesian inference and regret inequalities from online estimation. The framework applies to any realizable family of likelihood functions and allows for non-i.i.d. data and anytime validity. Moreover, the framework seamlessly integrates standard approximate inference techniques, such as variational inference and sampling-based methods, and extends to misspecified model classes, while preserving provable coverage guarantees. We illustrate the power of the framework by deriving tighter confidence sequences for classical settings, including sequential linear regression and sparse estimation, with simplified proofs.

Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

Toward Task Generalization via Memory Augmentation in Meta-Reinforcement Learning

In reinforcement learning (RL), agents often struggle to perform well on tasks that differ from those encountered during training. This limitation presents a challenge to the broader deployment of RL in diverse and dynamic task settings. In this work, we introduce memory augmentation, a memory-based RL approach to improve task generalization. Our approach leverages task-structured augmentations to simulate plausible out-of-distribution scenarios and incorporates memory mechanisms to enable context-aware policy adaptation. Trained on a predefined set of tasks, our policy demonstrates the ability to generalize to unseen tasks through memory augmentation without requiring additional interactions with the environment. Through extensive simulation experiments and real-world hardware evaluations on legged locomotion tasks, we demonstrate that our approach achieves zero-shot generalization to unseen tasks while maintaining robust in-distribution performance and high sample efficiency.

International AI Safety Report

The first International AI Safety Report comprehensively synthesizes the current evidence on the capabilities, risks, and safety of advanced AI systems. The report was mandated by the nations attending the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, UK. Thirty nations, the UN, the OECD, and the EU each nominated a representative to the report's Expert Advisory Panel. A total of 100 AI experts contributed, representing diverse perspectives and disciplines. Led by the report's Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content.

Robotic World Model: A Neural Network Simulator for Robust Policy Optimization in Robotics

Learning robust and generalizable world models is crucial for enabling efficient and scalable robotic control in real-world environments. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for learning world models that accurately capture complex, partially observable, and stochastic dynamics. The proposed method employs a dual-autoregressive mechanism and self-supervised training to achieve reliable long-horizon predictions without relying on domain-specific inductive biases, ensuring adaptability across diverse robotic tasks. We further propose a policy optimization framework that leverages world models for efficient training in imagined environments and seamless deployment in real-world systems. Through extensive experiments, our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating superior autoregressive prediction accuracy, robustness to noise, and generalization across manipulation and locomotion tasks. Notably, policies trained with our method are successfully deployed on ANYmal D hardware in a zero-shot transfer, achieving robust performance with minimal sim-to-real performance loss. This work advances model-based reinforcement learning by addressing the challenges of long-horizon prediction, error accumulation, and sim-to-real transfer. By providing a scalable and robust framework, the introduced methods pave the way for adaptive and efficient robotic systems in real-world applications.

MaxInfoRL: Boosting exploration in reinforcement learning through information gain maximization

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms aim to balance exploiting the current best strategy with exploring new options that could lead to higher rewards. Most common RL algorithms use undirected exploration, i.e., select random sequences of actions. Exploration can also be directed using intrinsic rewards, such as curiosity or model epistemic uncertainty. However, effectively balancing task and intrinsic rewards is challenging and often task-dependent. In this work, we introduce a framework, MaxInfoRL, for balancing intrinsic and extrinsic exploration. MaxInfoRL steers exploration towards informative transitions, by maximizing intrinsic rewards such as the information gain about the underlying task. When combined with Boltzmann exploration, this approach naturally trades off maximization of the value function with that of the entropy over states, rewards, and actions. We show that our approach achieves sublinear regret in the simplified setting of multi-armed bandits. We then apply this general formulation to a variety of off-policy model-free RL methods for continuous state-action spaces, yielding novel algorithms that achieve superior performance across hard exploration problems and complex scenarios such as visual control tasks.

Generative Intervention Models for Causal Perturbation Modeling

We consider the problem of predicting perturbation effects via causal models. In many applications, it is a priori unknown which mechanisms of a system are modified by an external perturbation, even though the features of the perturbation are available. For example, in genomics, some properties of a drug may be known, but not their causal effects on the regulatory pathways of cells. We propose a generative intervention model (GIM) that learns to map these perturbation features to distributions over atomic interventions in a jointly-estimated causal model. Contrary to prior approaches, this enables us to predict the distribution shifts of unseen perturbation features while gaining insights about their mechanistic effects in the underlying data-generating process. On synthetic data and scRNA-seq drug perturbation data, GIMs achieve robust out-of-distribution predictions on par with unstructured approaches, while effectively inferring the underlying perturbation mechanisms, often better than other causal inference methods.