Generative Intervention Models for Causal Perturbation Modeling

We consider the problem of predicting perturbation effects via causal models. In many applications, it is a priori unknown which mechanisms of a system are modified by an external perturbation, even though the features of the perturbation are available. For example, in genomics, some properties of a drug may be known, but not their causal effects on the regulatory pathways of cells. We propose a generative intervention model (GIM) that learns to map these perturbation features to distributions over atomic interventions in a jointly-estimated causal model. Contrary to prior approaches, this enables us to predict the distribution shifts of unseen perturbation features while gaining insights about their mechanistic effects in the underlying data-generating process. On synthetic data and scRNA-seq drug perturbation data, GIMs achieve robust out-of-distribution predictions on par with unstructured approaches, while effectively inferring the underlying perturbation mechanisms, often better than other causal inference methods.

Alien Recombination: Exploring Concept Blends Beyond Human Cognitive Availability in Visual Art

While AI models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in constrained domains like game strategy, their potential for genuine creativity in open-ended domains like art remains debated. We explore this question by examining how AI can transcend human cognitive limitations in visual art creation. Our research hypothesizes that visual art contains a vast unexplored space of conceptual combinations, constrained not by inherent incompatibility, but by cognitive limitations imposed by artists' cultural, temporal, geographical and social contexts. To test this hypothesis, we present the Alien Recombination method, a novel approach utilizing fine-tuned large language models to identify and generate concept combinations that lie beyond human cognitive availability. The system models and deliberately counteracts human availability bias, the tendency to rely on immediately accessible examples, to discover novel artistic combinations. This system not only produces combinations that have never been attempted before within our dataset but also identifies and generates combinations that are cognitively unavailable to all artists in the domain. Furthermore, we translate these combinations into visual representations, enabling the exploration of subjective perceptions of novelty. Our findings suggest that cognitive unavailability is a promising metric for optimizing artistic novelty, outperforming merely temperature scaling without additional evaluation criteria. This approach uses generative models to connect previously unconnected ideas, providing new insight into the potential of framing AI-driven creativity as a combinatorial problem.

SPARTAN: A Sparse Transformer Learning Local Causation

Causal structures play a central role in world models that flexibly adapt to changes in the environment. While recent works motivate the benefits of discovering local causal graphs for dynamics modelling, in this work we demonstrate that accurately capturing these relationships in complex settings remains challenging for the current state-of-the-art. To remedy this shortcoming, we postulate that sparsity is a critical ingredient for the discovery of such local causal structures. To this end we present the SPARse TrANsformer World model (SPARTAN), a Transformer-based world model that learns local causal structures between entities in a scene. By applying sparsity regularisation on the attention pattern between object-factored tokens, SPARTAN identifies sparse local causal models that accurately predict future object states. Furthermore, we extend our model to capture sparse interventions with unknown targets on the dynamics of the environment. This results in a highly interpretable world model that can efficiently adapt to changes. Empirically, we evaluate SPARTAN against the current state-of-the-art in object-centric world models on observation-based environments and demonstrate that our model can learn accurate local causal graphs and achieve significantly improved few-shot adaptation to changes in the dynamics of the environment as well as robustness against removing irrelevant distractors.

Causal Responsibility Attribution for Human-AI Collaboration

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems increasingly influence decision-making across various fields, the need to attribute responsibility for undesirable outcomes has become essential, though complicated by the complex interplay between humans and AI. Existing attribution methods based on actual causality and Shapley values tend to disproportionately blame agents who contribute more to an outcome and rely on real-world measures of blameworthiness that may misalign with responsible AI standards. This paper presents a causal framework using Structural Causal Models (SCMs) to systematically attribute responsibility in human-AI systems, measuring overall blameworthiness while employing counterfactual reasoning to account for agents' expected epistemic levels. Two case studies illustrate the framework's adaptability in diverse human-AI collaboration scenarios.

Imagining and building wise machines: The centrality of AI metacognition

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have produced systems capable of increasingly sophisticated performance on cognitive tasks. However, AI systems still struggle in critical ways: unpredictable and novel environments (robustness), lack of transparency in their reasoning (explainability), challenges in communication and commitment (cooperation), and risks due to potential harmful actions (safety). We argue that these shortcomings stem from one overarching failure: AI systems lack wisdom. Drawing from cognitive and social sciences, we define wisdom as the ability to navigate intractable problems - those that are ambiguous, radically uncertain, novel, chaotic, or computationally explosive - through effective task-level and metacognitive strategies. While AI research has focused on task-level strategies, metacognition - the ability to reflect on and regulate one's thought processes - is underdeveloped in AI systems. In humans, metacognitive strategies such as recognizing the limits of one's knowledge, considering diverse perspectives, and adapting to context are essential for wise decision-making. We propose that integrating metacognitive capabilities into AI systems is crucial for enhancing their robustness, explainability, cooperation, and safety. By focusing on developing wise AI, we suggest an alternative to aligning AI with specific human values - a task fraught with conceptual and practical difficulties. Instead, wise AI systems can thoughtfully navigate complex situations, account for diverse human values, and avoid harmful actions. We discuss potential approaches to building wise AI, including benchmarking metacognitive abilities and training AI systems to employ wise reasoning. Prioritizing metacognition in AI research will lead to systems that act not only intelligently but also wisely in complex, real-world situations.

Flow Matching for Atmospheric Retrieval of Exoplanets: Where Reliability meets Adaptive Noise Levels

Inferring atmospheric properties of exoplanets from observed spectra is key to understanding their formation, evolution, and habitability. Since traditional Bayesian approaches to atmospheric retrieval (e.g., nested sampling) are computationally expensive, a growing number of machine learning (ML) methods such as neural posterior estimation (NPE) have been proposed. We seek to make ML-based atmospheric retrieval (1) more reliable and accurate with verified results, and (2) more flexible with respect to the underlying neural networks and the choice of the assumed noise models. First, we adopt flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML approach to atmospheric retrieval. FMPE maintains many advantages of NPE, but provides greater architectural flexibility and scalability. Second, we use importance sampling (IS) to verify and correct ML results, and to compute an estimate of the Bayesian evidence. Third, we condition our ML models on the assumed noise level of a spectrum (i.e., error bars), thus making them adaptable to different noise models. Both our noise level-conditional FMPE and NPE models perform on par with nested sampling across a range of noise levels when tested on simulated data. FMPE trains about 3 times faster than NPE and yields higher IS efficiencies. IS successfully corrects inaccurate ML results, identifies model failures via low efficiencies, and provides accurate estimates of the Bayesian evidence. FMPE is a powerful alternative to NPE for fast, amortized, and parallelizable atmospheric retrieval. IS can verify results, thus helping to build confidence in ML-based approaches, while also facilitating model comparison via the evidence ratio. Noise level conditioning allows design studies for future instruments to be scaled up, for example, in terms of the range of signal-to-noise ratios.

MathGAP: Out-of-Distribution Evaluation on Problems with Arbitrarily Complex Proofs

Large language models (LLMs) can solve arithmetic word problems with high accuracy, but little is known about how well they generalize to problems that are more complex than the ones on which they have been trained. Empirical investigations of such questions are impeded by two major flaws of current evaluations: (i) much of the evaluation data is contaminated, in the sense that it has already been seen during training, and (ii) benchmark datasets do not capture how problem proofs may be arbitrarily complex in various ways. As a step towards addressing these issues, we present a framework for evaluating LLMs on problems that have arbitrarily complex arithmetic proofs, called MathGAP. MathGAP generates problems that follow fixed proof specifications -- along with chain-of-thought reasoning annotations -- enabling systematic studies on generalization with respect to arithmetic proof complexity. We apply MathGAP to analyze how in-context learning interacts with generalization to problems that have more complex proofs. We find that among the models tested, most show a significant decrease in performance as proofs get deeper and wider. This effect is more pronounced in complex, nonlinear proof structures, which are challenging even for GPT-4o. Surprisingly, providing in-context examples from the same distribution as the test set is not always beneficial for performance. In particular, zero-shot prompting as well as demonstrating a diverse range of examples that are less complex than the test data sometimes yield similar or higher accuracies.

Conformal Generative Modeling with Improved Sample Efficiency through Sequential Greedy Filtering

Generative models lack rigorous statistical guarantees for their outputs and are therefore unreliable in safety-critical applications. In this work, we propose Sequential Conformal Prediction for Generative Models (SCOPE-Gen), a sequential conformal prediction method producing prediction sets that satisfy a rigorous statistical guarantee called conformal admissibility control. This guarantee states that with high probability, the prediction sets contain at least one admissible (or valid) example. To this end, our method first samples an initial set of i.i.d. examples from a black box generative model. Then, this set is iteratively pruned via so-called greedy filters. As a consequence of the iterative generation procedure, admissibility of the final prediction set factorizes as a Markov chain. This factorization is crucial, because it allows to control each factor separately, using conformal prediction. In comparison to prior work, our method demonstrates a large reduction in the number of admissibility evaluations during calibration. This reduction is important in safety-critical applications, where these evaluations must be conducted manually by domain experts and are therefore costly and time consuming. We highlight the advantages of our method in terms of admissibility evaluations and cardinality of the prediction sets through experiments in natural language generation and molecular graph extension tasks.

RP1M: A Large-Scale Motion Dataset for Piano Playing with Bi-Manual Dexterous Robot Hands

It has been a long-standing research goal to endow robot hands with human-level dexterity. Bi-manual robot piano playing constitutes a task that combines challenges from dynamic tasks, such as generating fast while precise motions, with slower but contact-rich manipulation problems. Although reinforcement learning based approaches have shown promising results in single-task performance, these methods struggle in a multi-song setting. Our work aims to close this gap and, thereby, enable imitation learning approaches for robot piano playing at scale. To this end, we introduce the Robot Piano 1 Million (RP1M) dataset, containing bi-manual robot piano playing motion data of more than one million trajectories. We formulate finger placements as an optimal transport problem, thus, enabling automatic annotation of vast amounts of unlabeled songs. Benchmarking existing imitation learning approaches shows that such approaches reach state-of-the-art robot piano playing performance by leveraging RP1M.

Can Large Language Models Understand Symbolic Graphics Programs?

Assessing the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) is often challenging, in part, because it is hard to find tasks to which they have not been exposed during training. We take one step to address this challenge by turning to a new task: focusing on symbolic graphics programs, which are a popular representation for graphics content that procedurally generates visual data. LLMs have shown exciting promise towards program synthesis, but do they understand symbolic graphics programs? Unlike conventional programs, symbolic graphics programs can be translated to graphics content. Here, we characterize an LLM's understanding of symbolic programs in terms of their ability to answer questions related to the graphics content. This task is challenging as the questions are difficult to answer from the symbolic programs alone -- yet, they would be easy to answer from the corresponding graphics content as we verify through a human experiment. To understand symbolic programs, LLMs may need to possess the ability to imagine how the corresponding graphics content would look without directly accessing the rendered visual content. We use this task to evaluate LLMs by creating a large benchmark for the semantic understanding of symbolic graphics programs. This benchmark is built via program-graphics correspondence, hence requiring minimal human efforts. We evaluate current LLMs on our benchmark to elucidate a preliminary assessment of their ability to reason about visual scenes from programs. We find that this task distinguishes existing LLMs and models considered good at reasoning perform better. Lastly, we introduce Symbolic Instruction Tuning (SIT) to improve this ability. Specifically, we query GPT4-o with questions and images generated by symbolic programs. Such data are then used to finetune an LLM. We also find that SIT data can improve the general instruction following ability of LLMs.