A Time Series is Worth Five Experts: Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts for Traffic Flow Prediction

Accurate traffic prediction faces significant challenges, necessitating a deep understanding of both temporal and spatial cues and their complex interactions across multiple variables. Recent advancements in traffic prediction systems are primarily due to the development of complex sequence-centric models. However, existing approaches often embed multiple variables and spatial relationships at each time step, which may hinder effective variable-centric learning, ultimately leading to performance degradation in traditional traffic prediction tasks. To overcome these limitations, we introduce variable-centric and prior knowledge-centric modeling techniques. Specifically, we propose a Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts (TITAN) model for traffic flow prediction. TITAN initially consists of three experts focused on sequence-centric modeling. Then, designed a low-rank adaptive method, TITAN simultaneously enables variable-centric modeling. Furthermore, we supervise the gating process using a prior knowledge-centric modeling strategy to ensure accurate routing. Experiments on two public traffic network datasets, METR-LA and PEMS-BAY, demonstrate that TITAN effectively captures variable-centric dependencies while ensuring accurate routing. Consequently, it achieves improvements in all evaluation metrics, ranging from approximately 4.37\% to 11.53\%, compared to previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. The code is open at \href{https://github.com/sqlcow/TITAN}{https://github.com/sqlcow/TITAN}.

Graph Pruning Based Spatial and Temporal Graph Convolutional Network with Transfer Learning for Traffic Prediction

With the process of urbanization and the rapid growth of population, the issue of traffic congestion has become an increasingly critical concern. Intelligent transportation systems heavily rely on real-time and precise prediction algorithms to address this problem. While Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) methods in deep learning have demonstrated high accuracy in predicting road conditions when sufficient data is available, forecasting in road networks with limited data remains a challenging task. This study proposed a novel Spatial-temporal Convolutional Network (TL-GPSTGN) based on graph pruning and transfer learning framework to tackle this issue. Firstly, the essential structure and information of the graph are extracted by analyzing the correlation and information entropy of the road network structure and feature data. By utilizing graph pruning techniques, the adjacency matrix of the graph and the input feature data are processed, resulting in a significant improvement in the model's migration performance. Subsequently, the well-characterized data are inputted into the spatial-temporal graph convolutional network to capture the spatial-temporal relationships and make predictions regarding the road conditions. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive testing and validation of the TL-GPSTGN method on real datasets, comparing its prediction performance against other commonly used models under identical conditions. The results demonstrate the exceptional predictive accuracy of TL-GPSTGN on a single dataset, as well as its robust migration performance across different datasets.

SurfaceAI: Automated creation of cohesive road surface quality datasets based on open street-level imagery

This paper introduces SurfaceAI, a pipeline designed to generate comprehensive georeferenced datasets on road surface type and quality from openly available street-level imagery. The motivation stems from the significant impact of road unevenness on the safety and comfort of traffic participants, especially vulnerable road users, emphasizing the need for detailed road surface data in infrastructure modeling and analysis. SurfaceAI addresses this gap by leveraging crowdsourced Mapillary data to train models that predict the type and quality of road surfaces visible in street-level images, which are then aggregated to provide cohesive information on entire road segment conditions.

Group Distributionally Robust Optimization can Suppress Class Imbalance Effect in Network Traffic Classification

Internet services have led to the eruption of traffic, and machine learning on these Internet data has become an indispensable tool, especially when the application is risk-sensitive. This paper focuses on network traffic classification in the presence of class imbalance, which fundamentally and ubiquitously exists in Internet data analysis. This existence of class imbalance mostly drifts the optimal decision boundary, resulting in a less optimal solution for machine learning models. To alleviate the effect, we propose to design strategies for alleviating the class imbalance through the lens of group distributionally robust optimization. Our approach iteratively updates the non-parametric weights for separate classes and optimizes the learning model by minimizing reweighted losses. We interpret the optimization steps from a Stackelberg game and perform extensive experiments on typical benchmarks. Results show that our approach can not only suppress the negative effect of class imbalance but also improve the comprehensive performance in prediction.

Efficient Motion Prediction: A Lightweight & Accurate Trajectory Prediction Model With Fast Training and Inference Speed

For efficient and safe autonomous driving, it is essential that autonomous vehicles can predict the motion of other traffic agents. While highly accurate, current motion prediction models often impose significant challenges in terms of training resource requirements and deployment on embedded hardware. We propose a new efficient motion prediction model, which achieves highly competitive benchmark results while training only a few hours on a single GPU. Due to our lightweight architectural choices and the focus on reducing the required training resources, our model can easily be applied to custom datasets. Furthermore, its low inference latency makes it particularly suitable for deployment in autonomous applications with limited computing resources.

Intention-based and Risk-Aware Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving in Complex Traffic Scenarios

Accurately predicting the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical challenge for autonomous vehicles. In complex traffic scenarios, there are two significant issues with the current autonomous driving system: the cognitive uncertainty of prediction and the lack of risk awareness, which limit the further development of autonomous driving. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel trajectory prediction model that incorporates insights and principles from driving behavior, ethical decision-making, and risk assessment. Based on joint prediction, our model consists of interaction, intention, and risk assessment modules. The dynamic variation of interaction between vehicles can be comprehensively captured at each timestamp in the interaction module. Based on interaction information, our model considers primary intentions for vehicles to enhance the diversity of trajectory generation. The optimization of predicted trajectories follows the advanced risk-aware decision-making principles. Experimental results are evaluated on the DeepAccident dataset; our approach shows its remarkable prediction performance on normal and accident scenarios and outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms by at least 28.9\% and 26.5\%, respectively. The proposed model improves the proficiency and adaptability of trajectory prediction in complex traffic scenarios. The code for the proposed model is available at https://sites.google.com/view/ir-prediction.

Neural Collaborative Filtering to Detect Anomalies in Human Semantic Trajectories

Human trajectory anomaly detection has become increasingly important across a wide range of applications, including security surveillance and public health. However, existing trajectory anomaly detection methods are primarily focused on vehicle-level traffic, while human-level trajectory anomaly detection remains under-explored. Since human trajectory data is often very sparse, machine learning methods have become the preferred approach for identifying complex patterns. However, concerns regarding potential biases and the robustness of these models have intensified the demand for more transparent and explainable alternatives. In response to these challenges, our research focuses on developing a lightweight anomaly detection model specifically designed to detect anomalies in human trajectories. We propose a Neural Collaborative Filtering approach to model and predict normal mobility. Our method is designed to model users' daily patterns of life without requiring prior knowledge, thereby enhancing performance in scenarios where data is sparse or incomplete, such as in cold start situations. Our algorithm consists of two main modules. The first is the collaborative filtering module, which applies collaborative filtering to model normal mobility of individual humans to places of interest. The second is the neural module, responsible for interpreting the complex spatio-temporal relationships inherent in human trajectory data. To validate our approach, we conducted extensive experiments using simulated and real-world datasets comparing to numerous state-of-the-art trajectory anomaly detection approaches.

Data-efficient Trajectory Prediction via Coreset Selection

Modern vehicles are equipped with multiple information-collection devices such as sensors and cameras, continuously generating a large volume of raw data. Accurately predicting the trajectories of neighboring vehicles is a vital component in understanding the complex driving environment. Yet, training trajectory prediction models is challenging in two ways. Processing the large-scale data is computation-intensive. Moreover, easy-medium driving scenarios often overwhelmingly dominate the dataset, leaving challenging driving scenarios such as dense traffic under-represented. For example, in the Argoverse motion prediction dataset, there are very few instances with $\ge 50$ agents, while scenarios with $10 \thicksim 20$ agents are far more common. In this paper, to mitigate data redundancy in the over-represented driving scenarios and to reduce the bias rooted in the data scarcity of complex ones, we propose a novel data-efficient training method based on coreset selection. This method strategically selects a small but representative subset of data while balancing the proportions of different scenario difficulties. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to introduce a method capable of effectively condensing large-scale trajectory dataset, while achieving a state-of-the-art compression ratio. Notably, even when using only 50% of the Argoverse dataset, the model can be trained with little to no decline in performance. Moreover, the selected coreset maintains excellent generalization ability.

FSF-Net: Enhance 4D Occupancy Forecasting with Coarse BEV Scene Flow for Autonomous Driving

4D occupancy forecasting is one of the important techniques for autonomous driving, which can avoid potential risk in the complex traffic scenes. Scene flow is a crucial element to describe 4D occupancy map tendency. However, an accurate scene flow is difficult to predict in the real scene. In this paper, we find that BEV scene flow can approximately represent 3D scene flow in most traffic scenes. And coarse BEV scene flow is easy to generate. Under this thought, we propose 4D occupancy forecasting method FSF-Net based on coarse BEV scene flow. At first, we develop a general occupancy forecasting architecture based on coarse BEV scene flow. Then, to further enhance 4D occupancy feature representation ability, we propose a vector quantized based Mamba (VQ-Mamba) network to mine spatial-temporal structural scene feature. After that, to effectively fuse coarse occupancy maps forecasted from BEV scene flow and latent features, we design a U-Net based quality fusion (UQF) network to generate the fine-grained forecasting result. Extensive experiments are conducted on public Occ3D dataset. FSF-Net has achieved IoU and mIoU 9.56% and 10.87% higher than state-of-the-art method. Hence, we believe that proposed FSF-Net benefits to the safety of autonomous driving.

Performance assessment of ADAS in a representative subset of critical traffic situations

As a variety of automated collision prevention systems gain presence within personal vehicles, rating and differentiating the automated safety performance of car models has become increasingly important for consumers, manufacturers, and insurers. In 2023, Swiss Re and partners initiated an eight-month long vehicle testing campaign conducted on a recognized UNECE type approval authority and Euro NCAP accredited proving ground in Germany. The campaign exposed twelve mass-produced vehicle models and one prototype vehicle fitted with collision prevention systems to a selection of safety-critical traffic scenarios representative of United States and European Union accident landscape. In this paper, we compare and evaluate the relative safety performance of these thirteen collision prevention systems (hardware and software stack) as demonstrated by this testing campaign. We first introduce a new scoring system which represents a test system's predicted impact on overall real-world collision frequency and reduction of collision impact energy, weighted based on the real-world relevance of the test scenario. Next, we introduce a novel metric that quantifies the realism of the protocol and confirm that our test protocol is a plausible representation of real-world driving. Finally, we find that the prototype system in its pre-release state outperforms the mass-produced (post-consumer-release) vehicles in the majority of the tested scenarios on the test track.