Joint Estimation and Prediction of City-wide Delivery Demand: A Large Language Model Empowered Graph-based Learning Approach

The proliferation of e-commerce and urbanization has significantly intensified delivery operations in urban areas, boosting the volume and complexity of delivery demand. Data-driven predictive methods, especially those utilizing machine learning techniques, have emerged to handle these complexities in urban delivery demand management problems. One particularly pressing problem that has not yet been sufficiently studied is the joint estimation and prediction of city-wide delivery demand. To this end, we formulate this problem as a graph-based spatiotemporal learning task. First, a message-passing neural network model is formalized to capture the interaction between demand patterns of associated regions. Second, by exploiting recent advances in large language models, we extract general geospatial knowledge encodings from the unstructured locational data and integrate them into the demand predictor. Last, to encourage the cross-city transferability of the model, an inductive training scheme is developed in an end-to-end routine. Extensive empirical results on two real-world delivery datasets, including eight cities in China and the US, demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in these challenging tasks.

Geolocation Representation from Large Language Models are Generic Enhancers for Spatio-Temporal Learning

In the geospatial domain, universal representation models are significantly less prevalent than their extensive use in natural language processing and computer vision. This discrepancy arises primarily from the high costs associated with the input of existing representation models, which often require street views and mobility data. To address this, we develop a novel, training-free method that leverages large language models (LLMs) and auxiliary map data from OpenStreetMap to derive geolocation representations (LLMGeovec). LLMGeovec can represent the geographic semantics of city, country, and global scales, which acts as a generic enhancer for spatio-temporal learning. Specifically, by direct feature concatenation, we introduce a simple yet effective paradigm for enhancing multiple spatio-temporal tasks including geographic prediction (GP), long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), and graph-based spatio-temporal forecasting (GSTF). LLMGeovec can seamlessly integrate into a wide spectrum of spatio-temporal learning models, providing immediate enhancements. Experimental results demonstrate that LLMGeovec achieves global coverage and significantly boosts the performance of leading GP, LTSF, and GSTF models.

High-Dimensional Fault Tolerance Testing of Highly Automated Vehicles Based on Low-Rank Models

Ensuring fault tolerance of Highly Automated Vehicles (HAVs) is crucial for their safety due to the presence of potentially severe faults. Hence, Fault Injection (FI) testing is conducted by practitioners to evaluate the safety level of HAVs. To fully cover test cases, various driving scenarios and fault settings should be considered. However, due to numerous combinations of test scenarios and fault settings, the testing space can be complex and high-dimensional. In addition, evaluating performance in all newly added scenarios is resource-consuming. The rarity of critical faults that can cause security problems further strengthens the challenge. To address these challenges, we propose to accelerate FI testing under the low-rank Smoothness Regularized Matrix Factorization (SRMF) framework. We first organize the sparse evaluated data into a structured matrix based on its safety values. Then the untested values are estimated by the correlation captured by the matrix structure. To address high dimensionality, a low-rank constraint is imposed on the testing space. To exploit the relationships between existing scenarios and new scenarios and capture the local regularity of critical faults, three types of smoothness regularization are further designed as a complement. We conduct experiments on car following and cut in scenarios. The results indicate that SRMF has the lowest prediction error in various scenarios and is capable of predicting rare critical faults compared to other machine learning models. In addition, SRMF can achieve 1171 acceleration rate, 99.3% precision and 91.1% F1 score in identifying critical faults. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to introduce low-rank models to FI testing of HAVs.

Channel-Aware Low-Rank Adaptation in Time Series Forecasting

The balance between model capacity and generalization has been a key focus of recent discussions in long-term time series forecasting. Two representative channel strategies are closely associated with model expressivity and robustness, including channel independence (CI) and channel dependence (CD). The former adopts individual channel treatment and has been shown to be more robust to distribution shifts, but lacks sufficient capacity to model meaningful channel interactions. The latter is more expressive for representing complex cross-channel dependencies, but is prone to overfitting. To balance the two strategies, we present a channel-aware low-rank adaptation method to condition CD models on identity-aware individual components. As a plug-in solution, it is adaptable for a wide range of backbone architectures. Extensive experiments show that it can consistently and significantly improve the performance of both CI and CD models with demonstrated efficiency and flexibility. The code is available at https://github.com/tongnie/C-LoRA.

Generalizable Implicit Neural Representation As a Universal Spatiotemporal Traffic Data Learner

$\textbf{This is the conference version of our paper: Spatiotemporal Implicit Neural Representation as a Generalized Traffic Data Learner}$. Spatiotemporal Traffic Data (STTD) measures the complex dynamical behaviors of the multiscale transportation system. Existing methods aim to reconstruct STTD using low-dimensional models. However, they are limited to data-specific dimensions or source-dependent patterns, restricting them from unifying representations. Here, we present a novel paradigm to address the STTD learning problem by parameterizing STTD as an implicit neural representation. To discern the underlying dynamics in low-dimensional regimes, coordinate-based neural networks that can encode high-frequency structures are employed to directly map coordinates to traffic variables. To unravel the entangled spatial-temporal interactions, the variability is decomposed into separate processes. We further enable modeling in irregular spaces such as sensor graphs using spectral embedding. Through continuous representations, our approach enables the modeling of a variety of STTD with a unified input, thereby serving as a generalized learner of the underlying traffic dynamics. It is also shown that it can learn implicit low-rank priors and smoothness regularization from the data, making it versatile for learning different dominating data patterns. We validate its effectiveness through extensive experiments in real-world scenarios, showcasing applications from corridor to network scales. Empirical results not only indicate that our model has significant superiority over conventional low-rank models, but also highlight that the versatility of the approach. We anticipate that this pioneering modeling perspective could lay the foundation for universal representation of STTD in various real-world tasks. $\textbf{The full version can be found at:}$ https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.03185.

ImputeFormer: Graph Transformers for Generalizable Spatiotemporal Imputation

This paper focuses on the multivariate time series imputation problem using deep neural architectures. The ubiquitous issue of missing data in both scientific and engineering tasks necessitates the development of an effective and general imputation model. Leveraging the wisdom and expertise garnered from low-rank imputation methods, we power the canonical Transformers with three key knowledge-driven enhancements, including projected temporal attention, global adaptive graph convolution, and Fourier imputation loss. These task-agnostic inductive biases exploit the inherent structures of incomplete time series, and thus make our model versatile for a variety of imputation problems. We demonstrate its superiority in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and flexibility on heterogeneous datasets, including traffic speed, traffic volume, solar energy, smart metering, and air quality. Comprehensive case studies are performed to further strengthen the interpretability. Promising empirical results provide strong conviction that incorporating time series primitives, such as low-rank properties, can substantially facilitate the development of a generalizable model to approach a wide range of spatiotemporal imputation problems.

Nexus sine qua non: Essentially connected neural networks for spatial-temporal forecasting of multivariate time series

Modeling and forecasting multivariate time series not only facilitates the decision making of practitioners, but also deepens our scientific understanding of the underlying dynamical systems. Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are emerged as powerful predictors and have become the de facto models for learning spatiotemporal representations in recent years. However, existing architectures of STGNNs tend to be complicated by stacking a series of fancy layers. The designed models could be either redundant or enigmatic, which pose great challenges on their complexity and scalability. Such concerns prompt us to re-examine the designs of modern STGNNs and identify core principles that contribute to a powerful and efficient neural predictor. Here we present a compact predictive model that is fully defined by a dense encoder-decoder and a message-passing layer, powered by node identifications, without any complex sequential modules, e.g., TCNs, RNNs, and Transformers. Empirical results demonstrate how a simple and elegant model with proper inductive basis can compare favorably w.r.t. the state of the art with elaborate designs, while being much more interpretable and computationally efficient for spatial-temporal forecasting problem. We hope our findings would open new horizons for future studies to revisit the design of more concise neural forecasting architectures.

Towards better traffic volume estimation: Tackling both underdetermined and non-equilibrium problems via a correlation-adaptive graph convolution network

Traffic volume is an indispensable ingredient to provide fine-grained information for traffic management and control. However, due to limited deployment of traffic sensors, obtaining full-scale volume information is far from easy. Existing works on this topic primarily focus on improving the overall estimation accuracy of a particular method and ignore the underlying challenges of volume estimation, thereby having inferior performances on some critical tasks. This paper studies two key problems with regard to traffic volume estimation: (1) underdetermined traffic flows caused by undetected movements, and (2) non-equilibrium traffic flows arise from congestion propagation. Here we demonstrate a graph-based deep learning method that can offer a data-driven, model-free and correlation adaptive approach to tackle the above issues and perform accurate network-wide traffic volume estimation. Particularly, in order to quantify the dynamic and nonlinear relationships between traffic speed and volume for the estimation of underdetermined flows, a speed patternadaptive adjacent matrix based on graph attention is developed and integrated into the graph convolution process, to capture non-local correlations between sensors. To measure the impacts of non-equilibrium flows, a temporal masked and clipped attention combined with a gated temporal convolution layer is customized to capture time-asynchronous correlations between upstream and downstream sensors. We then evaluate our model on a real-world highway traffic volume dataset and compare it with several benchmark models. It is demonstrated that the proposed model achieves high estimation accuracy even under 20% sensor coverage rate and outperforms other baselines significantly, especially on underdetermined and non-equilibrium flow locations. Furthermore, comprehensive quantitative model analysis are also carried out to justify the model designs.

Truncated tensor Schatten p-norm based approach for spatiotemporal traffic data imputation with complicated missing patterns

Rapid advances in sensor, wireless communication, cloud computing and data science have brought unprecedented amount of data to assist transportation engineers and researchers in making better decisions. However, traffic data in reality often has corrupted or incomplete values due to detector and communication malfunctions. Data imputation is thus required to ensure the effectiveness of downstream data-driven applications. To this end, numerous tensor-based methods treating the imputation problem as the low-rank tensor completion (LRTC) have been attempted in previous works. To tackle rank minimization, which is at the core of the LRTC, most of aforementioned methods utilize the tensor nuclear norm (NN) as a convex surrogate for the minimization. However, the over-relaxation issue in NN refrains it from desirable performance in practice. In this paper, we define an innovative nonconvex truncated Schatten p-norm for tensors (TSpN) to approximate tensor rank and impute missing spatiotemporal traffic data under the LRTC framework. We model traffic data into a third-order tensor structure of (time intervals,locations (sensors),days) and introduce four complicated missing patterns, including random missing and three fiber-like missing cases according to the tensor mode-n fibers. Despite nonconvexity of the objective function in our model, we derive the global optimal solutions by integrating the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with generalized soft-thresholding (GST). In addition, we design a truncation rate decay strategy to deal with varying missing rate scenarios. Comprehensive experiments are finally conducted using real-world spatiotemporal datasets, which demonstrate that the proposed LRTC-TSpN method performs well under various missing cases, meanwhile outperforming other SOTA tensor-based imputation models in almost all scenarios.