DropoutTS: Sample-Adaptive Dropout for Robust Time Series Forecasting

Deep time series models are vulnerable to noisy data ubiquitous in real-world applications. Existing robustness strategies either prune data or rely on costly prior quantification, failing to balance effectiveness and efficiency. In this paper, we introduce DropoutTS, a model-agnostic plugin that shifts the paradigm from "what" to learn to "how much" to learn. DropoutTS employs a Sample-Adaptive Dropout mechanism: leveraging spectral sparsity to efficiently quantify instance-level noise via reconstruction residuals, it dynamically calibrates model learning capacity by mapping noise to adaptive dropout rates - selectively suppressing spurious fluctuations while preserving fine-grained fidelity. Extensive experiments across diverse noise regimes and open benchmarks show DropoutTS consistently boosts superior backbones' performance, delivering advanced robustness with negligible parameter overhead and no architectural modifications. Our code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/DropoutTS.

Breaking the Regional Barrier: Inductive Semantic Topology Learning for Worldwide Air Quality Forecasting

Global air quality forecasting grapples with extreme spatial heterogeneity and the poor generalization of existing transductive models to unseen regions. To tackle this, we propose OmniAir, a semantic topology learning framework tailored for global station-level prediction. By encoding invariant physical environmental attributes into generalizable station identities and dynamically constructing adaptive sparse topologies, our approach effectively captures long-range non-Euclidean correlations and physical diffusion patterns across unevenly distributed global networks. We further curate WorldAir, a massive dataset covering over 7,800 stations worldwide. Extensive experiments show that OmniAir achieves state-of-the-art performance against 18 baselines, maintaining high efficiency and scalability with speeds nearly 10 times faster than existing models, while effectively bridging the monitoring gap in data-sparse regions.

Rationale-Grounded In-Context Learning for Time Series Reasoning with Multimodal Large Language Models

The underperformance of existing multimodal large language models for time series reasoning lies in the absence of rationale priors that connect temporal observations to their downstream outcomes, which leads models to rely on superficial pattern matching rather than principled reasoning. We therefore propose the rationale-grounded in-context learning for time series reasoning, where rationales work as guiding reasoning units rather than post-hoc explanations, and develop the RationaleTS method. Specifically, we firstly induce label-conditioned rationales, composed of reasoning paths from observable evidence to the potential outcomes. Then, we design the hybrid retrieval by balancing temporal patterns and semantic contexts to retrieve correlated rationale priors for the final in-context inference on new samples. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed RationaleTS on three-domain time series reasoning tasks. We will release our code for reproduction.

Augur: Modeling Covariate Causal Associations in Time Series via Large Language Models

Large language models (LLM) have emerged as a promising avenue for time series forecasting, offering the potential to integrate multimodal data. However, existing LLM-based approaches face notable limitations-such as marginalized role in model architectures, reliance on coarse statistical text prompts, and lack of interpretability. In this work, we introduce Augur, a fully LLM driven time series forecasting framework that exploits LLM causal reasoning to discover and use directed causal associations among covariates. Augur uses a two stage teacher student architecture where a powerful teacher LLM infers a directed causal graph from time series using heuristic search together with pairwise causality testing. A lightweight student agent then refines the graph and fine tune on high confidence causal associations that are encoded as rich textual prompts to perform forecasting. This design improves predictive accuracy while yielding transparent, traceable reasoning about variable interactions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with 25 baselines demonstrate that Augur achieves competitive performance and robust zero-shot generalization.

Affordance-R1: Reinforcement Learning for Generalizable Affordance Reasoning in Multimodal Large Language Model

Affordance grounding focuses on predicting the specific regions of objects that are associated with the actions to be performed by robots. It plays a vital role in the fields of human-robot interaction, human-object interaction, embodied manipulation, and embodied perception. Existing models often neglect the affordance shared among different objects because they lack the Chain-of-Thought(CoT) reasoning abilities, limiting their out-of-domain (OOD) generalization and explicit reasoning capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose Affordance-R1, the first unified affordance grounding framework that integrates cognitive CoT guided Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) within a reinforcement learning paradigm. Specifically, we designed a sophisticated affordance function, which contains format, perception, and cognition rewards to effectively guide optimization directions. Furthermore, we constructed a high-quality affordance-centric reasoning dataset, ReasonAff, to support training. Trained exclusively via reinforcement learning with GRPO and without explicit reasoning data, Affordance-R1 achieves robust zero-shot generalization and exhibits emergent test-time reasoning capabilities. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms well-established methods and exhibits open-world generalization. To the best of our knowledge, Affordance-R1 is the first to integrate GRPO-based RL with reasoning into affordance reasoning. The code of our method and our dataset is released on https://github.com/hq-King/Affordance-R1.

Less is More: Enhancing Structured Multi-Agent Reasoning via Quality-Guided Distillation

The XLLM@ACL2025 Shared Task-III formulates a low-resource structural reasoning task that challenges LLMs to generate interpretable, step-by-step rationales with minimal labeled data. We present Less is More, the third-place winning approach in the XLLM@ACL2025 Shared Task-III, which focuses on structured reasoning from only 24 labeled examples. Our approach leverages a multi-agent framework with reverse-prompt induction, retrieval-augmented reasoning synthesis via GPT-4o, and dual-stage reward-guided filtering to distill high-quality supervision across three subtasks: question parsing, CoT parsing, and step-level verification. All modules are fine-tuned from Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct under a unified LoRA+ setup. By combining structure validation with reward filtering across few-shot and zero-shot prompts, our pipeline consistently improves structure reasoning quality. These results underscore the value of controllable data distillation in enhancing structured inference under low-resource constraints. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jiahao-Yuan/Less-is-More.

Draw with Thought: Unleashing Multimodal Reasoning for Scientific Diagram Generation

Scientific diagrams are vital tools for communicating structured knowledge across disciplines. However, they are often published as static raster images, losing symbolic semantics and limiting reuse. While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) offer a pathway to bridging vision and structure, existing methods lack semantic control and structural interpretability, especially on complex diagrams. We propose Draw with Thought (DwT), a training-free framework that guides MLLMs to reconstruct diagrams into editable mxGraph XML code through cognitively-grounded Chain-of-Thought reasoning. DwT enables interpretable and controllable outputs without model fine-tuning by dividing the task into two stages: Coarse-to-Fine Planning, which handles perceptual structuring and semantic specification, and Structure-Aware Code Generation, enhanced by format-guided refinement. To support evaluation, we release Plot2XML, a benchmark of 247 real-world scientific diagrams with gold-standard XML annotations. Extensive experiments across eight MLLMs show that our approach yields high-fidelity, semantically aligned, and structurally valid reconstructions, with human evaluations confirming strong alignment in both accuracy and visual aesthetics, offering a scalable solution for converting static visuals into executable representations and advancing machine understanding of scientific graphics.

ReflectDiffu: Reflect between Emotion-intent Contagion and Mimicry for Empathetic Response Generation via a RL-Diffusion Framework

Empathetic response generation necessitates the integration of emotional and intentional dynamics to foster meaningful interactions. Existing research either neglects the intricate interplay between emotion and intent, leading to suboptimal controllability of empathy, or resorts to large language models (LLMs), which incur significant computational overhead. In this paper, we introduce ReflectDiffu, a lightweight and comprehensive framework for empathetic response generation. This framework incorporates emotion contagion to augment emotional expressiveness and employs an emotion-reasoning mask to pinpoint critical emotional elements. Additionally, it integrates intent mimicry within reinforcement learning for refinement during diffusion. By harnessing an intent twice reflect the mechanism of Exploring-Sampling-Correcting, ReflectDiffu adeptly translates emotional decision-making into precise intent actions, thereby addressing empathetic response misalignments stemming from emotional misrecognition. Through reflection, the framework maps emotional states to intents, markedly enhancing both response empathy and flexibility. Comprehensive experiments reveal that ReflectDiffu outperforms existing models regarding relevance, controllability, and informativeness, achieving state-of-the-art results in both automatic and human evaluations.