LightWeather: Harnessing Absolute Positional Encoding to Efficient and Scalable Global Weather Forecasting

Recently, Transformers have gained traction in weather forecasting for their capability to capture long-term spatial-temporal correlations. However, their complex architectures result in large parameter counts and extended training times, limiting their practical application and scalability to global-scale forecasting. This paper aims to explore the key factor for accurate weather forecasting and design more efficient solutions. Interestingly, our empirical findings reveal that absolute positional encoding is what really works in Transformer-based weather forecasting models, which can explicitly model the spatial-temporal correlations even without attention mechanisms. We theoretically prove that its effectiveness stems from the integration of geographical coordinates and real-world time features, which are intrinsically related to the dynamics of weather. Based on this, we propose LightWeather, a lightweight and effective model for station-based global weather forecasting. We employ absolute positional encoding and a simple MLP in place of other components of Transformer. With under 30k parameters and less than one hour of training time, LightWeather achieves state-of-the-art performance on global weather datasets compared to other advanced DL methods. The results underscore the superiority of integrating spatial-temporal knowledge over complex architectures, providing novel insights for DL in weather forecasting.

GinAR: An End-To-End Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Model Suitable for Variable Missing

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is crucial for decision-making to precisely forecast the future values/trends, based on the complex relationships identified from historical observations of multiple sequences. Recently, Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have gradually become the theme of MTSF model as their powerful capability in mining spatial-temporal dependencies, but almost of them heavily rely on the assumption of historical data integrity. In reality, due to factors such as data collector failures and time-consuming repairment, it is extremely challenging to collect the whole historical observations without missing any variable. In this case, STGNNs can only utilize a subset of normal variables and easily suffer from the incorrect spatial-temporal dependency modeling issue, resulting in the degradation of their forecasting performance. To address the problem, in this paper, we propose a novel Graph Interpolation Attention Recursive Network (named GinAR) to precisely model the spatial-temporal dependencies over the limited collected data for forecasting. In GinAR, it consists of two key components, that is, interpolation attention and adaptive graph convolution to take place of the fully connected layer of simple recursive units, and thus are capable of recovering all missing variables and reconstructing the correct spatial-temporal dependencies for recursively modeling of multivariate time series data, respectively. Extensive experiments conducted on five real-world datasets demonstrate that GinAR outperforms 11 SOTA baselines, and even when 90% of variables are missing, it can still accurately predict the future values of all variables.

Dynamic Frequency Domain Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting

Complex spatial dependencies in transportation networks make traffic prediction extremely challenging. Much existing work is devoted to learning dynamic graph structures among sensors, and the strategy of mining spatial dependencies from traffic data, known as data-driven, tends to be an intuitive and effective approach. However, Time-Shift of traffic patterns and noise induced by random factors hinder data-driven spatial dependence modeling. In this paper, we propose a novel dynamic frequency domain graph convolution network (DFDGCN) to capture spatial dependencies. Specifically, we mitigate the effects of time-shift by Fourier transform, and introduce the identity embedding of sensors and time embedding when capturing data for graph learning since traffic data with noise is not entirely reliable. The graph is combined with static predefined and self-adaptive graphs during graph convolution to predict future traffic data through classical causal convolutions. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that our model is effective and outperforms the baselines.

Exploring Progress in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Comprehensive Benchmarking and Heterogeneity Analysis

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) widely exists in real-word complex systems, such as traffic and energy systems, making their forecasting crucial for understanding and influencing these systems. Recently, deep learning-based approaches have gained much popularity for effectively modeling temporal and spatial dependencies in MTS, specifically in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) and Spatial-Temporal Forecasting (STF). However, the fair benchmarking issue and the choice of technical approaches have been hotly debated in related work. Such controversies significantly hinder our understanding of progress in this field. Thus, this paper aims to address these controversies to present insights into advancements achieved. To resolve benchmarking issues, we introduce BasicTS, a benchmark designed for fair comparisons in MTS forecasting. BasicTS establishes a unified training pipeline and reasonable evaluation settings, enabling an unbiased evaluation of over 30 popular MTS forecasting models on more than 18 datasets. Furthermore, we highlight the heterogeneity among MTS datasets and classify them based on temporal and spatial characteristics. We further prove that neglecting heterogeneity is the primary reason for generating controversies in technical approaches. Moreover, based on the proposed BasicTS and rich heterogeneous MTS datasets, we conduct an exhaustive and reproducible performance and efficiency comparison of popular models, providing insights for researchers in selecting and designing MTS forecasting models.

DSformer: A Double Sampling Transformer for Multivariate Time Series Long-term Prediction

Multivariate time series long-term prediction, which aims to predict the change of data in a long time, can provide references for decision-making. Although transformer-based models have made progress in this field, they usually do not make full use of three features of multivariate time series: global information, local information, and variables correlation. To effectively mine the above three features and establish a high-precision prediction model, we propose a double sampling transformer (DSformer), which consists of the double sampling (DS) block and the temporal variable attention (TVA) block. Firstly, the DS block employs down sampling and piecewise sampling to transform the original series into feature vectors that focus on global information and local information respectively. Then, TVA block uses temporal attention and variable attention to mine these feature vectors from different dimensions and extract key information. Finally, based on a parallel structure, DSformer uses multiple TVA blocks to mine and integrate different features obtained from DS blocks respectively. The integrated feature information is passed to the generative decoder based on a multi-layer perceptron to realize multivariate time series long-term prediction. Experimental results on nine real-world datasets show that DSformer can outperform eight existing baselines.

HUTFormer: Hierarchical U-Net Transformer for Long-Term Traffic Forecasting

Traffic forecasting, which aims to predict traffic conditions based on historical observations, has been an enduring research topic and is widely recognized as an essential component of intelligent transportation. Recent proposals on Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have made significant progress by combining sequential models with graph convolution networks. However, due to high complexity issues, STGNNs only focus on short-term traffic forecasting, e.g., 1-hour forecasting, while ignoring more practical long-term forecasting. In this paper, we make the first attempt to explore long-term traffic forecasting, e.g., 1-day forecasting. To this end, we first reveal its unique challenges in exploiting multi-scale representations. Then, we propose a novel Hierarchical U-net TransFormer (HUTFormer) to address the issues of long-term traffic forecasting. HUTFormer consists of a hierarchical encoder and decoder to jointly generate and utilize multi-scale representations of traffic data. Specifically, for the encoder, we propose window self-attention and segment merging to extract multi-scale representations from long-term traffic data. For the decoder, we design a cross-scale attention mechanism to effectively incorporate multi-scale representations. In addition, HUTFormer employs an efficient input embedding strategy to address the complexity issues. Extensive experiments on four traffic datasets show that the proposed HUTFormer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art traffic forecasting and long time series forecasting baselines.

Spatial-Temporal Identity: A Simple yet Effective Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting plays a vital role in a wide range of applications. Recently, Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have become increasingly popular MTS forecasting methods due to their state-of-the-art performance. However, recent works are becoming more sophisticated with limited performance improvements. This phenomenon motivates us to explore the critical factors of MTS forecasting and design a model that is as powerful as STGNNs, but more concise and efficient. In this paper, we identify the indistinguishability of samples in both spatial and temporal dimensions as a key bottleneck, and propose a simple yet effective baseline for MTS forecasting by attaching Spatial and Temporal IDentity information (STID), which achieves the best performance and efficiency simultaneously based on simple Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs). These results suggest that we can design efficient and effective models as long as they solve the indistinguishability of samples, without being limited to STGNNs.

Decoupled Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Traffic Forecasting

We all depend on mobility, and vehicular transportation affects the daily lives of most of us. Thus, the ability to forecast the state of traffic in a road network is an important functionality and a challenging task. Traffic data is often obtained from sensors deployed in a road network. Recent proposals on spatial-temporal graph neural networks have achieved great progress at modeling complex spatial-temporal correlations in traffic data, by modeling traffic data as a diffusion process. However, intuitively, traffic data encompasses two different kinds of hidden time series signals, namely the diffusion signals and inherent signals. Unfortunately, nearly all previous works coarsely consider traffic signals entirely as the outcome of the diffusion, while neglecting the inherent signals, which impacts model performance negatively. To improve modeling performance, we propose a novel Decoupled Spatial-Temporal Framework (DSTF) that separates the diffusion and inherent traffic information in a data-driven manner, which encompasses a unique estimation gate and a residual decomposition mechanism. The separated signals can be handled subsequently by the diffusion and inherent modules separately. Further, we propose an instantiation of DSTF, Decoupled Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network (D2STGNN), that captures spatial-temporal correlations and also features a dynamic graph learning module that targets the learning of the dynamic characteristics of traffic networks. Extensive experiments with four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that the framework is capable of advancing the state-of-the-art.

Pre-training Enhanced Spatial-temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting plays a vital role in a wide range of applications. Recently, Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have become increasingly popular MTS forecasting methods. STGNNs jointly model the spatial and temporal patterns of MTS through graph neural networks and sequential models, significantly improving the prediction accuracy. But limited by model complexity, most STGNNs only consider short-term historical MTS data, such as data over the past one hour. However, the patterns of time series and the dependencies between them (i.e., the temporal and spatial patterns) need to be analyzed based on long-term historical MTS data. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework, in which STGNN is Enhanced by a scalable time series Pre-training model (STEP). Specifically, we design a pre-training model to efficiently learn temporal patterns from very long-term history time series (e.g., the past two weeks) and generate segment-level representations. These representations provide contextual information for short-term time series input to STGNNs and facilitate modeling dependencies between time series. Experiments on three public real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework is capable of significantly enhancing downstream STGNNs, and our pre-training model aptly captures temporal patterns.

Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network with Multi-view Representation Learning

Graph neural networks for heterogeneous graph embedding is to project nodes into a low-dimensional space by exploring the heterogeneity and semantics of the heterogeneous graph. However, on the one hand, most of existing heterogeneous graph embedding methods either insufficiently model the local structure under specific semantic, or neglect the heterogeneity when aggregating information from it. On the other hand, representations from multiple semantics are not comprehensively integrated to obtain versatile node embeddings. To address the problem, we propose a Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network with Multi-View Representation Learning (named MV-HetGNN) for heterogeneous graph embedding by introducing the idea of multi-view representation learning. The proposed model consists of node feature transformation, view-specific ego graph encoding and auto multi-view fusion to thoroughly learn complex structural and semantic information for generating comprehensive node representations. Extensive experiments on three real-world heterogeneous graph datasets show that the proposed MV-HetGNN model consistently outperforms all the state-of-the-art GNN baselines in various downstream tasks, e.g., node classification, node clustering, and link prediction.