Causal Discovery via Quantile Partial Effect

Quantile Partial Effect (QPE) is a statistic associated with conditional quantile regression, measuring the effect of covariates at different levels. Our theory demonstrates that when the QPE of cause on effect is assumed to lie in a finite linear span, cause and effect are identifiable from their observational distribution. This generalizes previous identifiability results based on Functional Causal Models (FCMs) with additive, heteroscedastic noise, etc. Meanwhile, since QPE resides entirely at the observational level, this parametric assumption does not require considering mechanisms, noise, or even the Markov assumption, but rather directly utilizes the asymmetry of shape characteristics in the observational distribution. By performing basis function tests on the estimated QPE, causal directions can be distinguished, which is empirically shown to be effective in experiments on a large number of bivariate causal discovery datasets. For multivariate causal discovery, leveraging the close connection between QPE and score functions, we find that Fisher Information is sufficient as a statistical measure to determine causal order when assumptions are made about the second moment of QPE. We validate the feasibility of using Fisher Information to identify causal order on multiple synthetic and real-world multivariate causal discovery datasets.

Exogenous Isomorphism for Counterfactual Identifiability

This paper investigates $\sim_{\mathcal{L}_3}$-identifiability, a form of complete counterfactual identifiability within the Pearl Causal Hierarchy (PCH) framework, ensuring that all Structural Causal Models (SCMs) satisfying the given assumptions provide consistent answers to all causal questions. To simplify this problem, we introduce exogenous isomorphism and propose $\sim_{\mathrm{EI}}$-identifiability, reflecting the strength of model identifiability required for $\sim_{\mathcal{L}_3}$-identifiability. We explore sufficient assumptions for achieving $\sim_{\mathrm{EI}}$-identifiability in two special classes of SCMs: Bijective SCMs (BSCMs), based on counterfactual transport, and Triangular Monotonic SCMs (TM-SCMs), which extend $\sim_{\mathcal{L}_2}$-identifiability. Our results unify and generalize existing theories, providing theoretical guarantees for practical applications. Finally, we leverage neural TM-SCMs to address the consistency problem in counterfactual reasoning, with experiments validating both the effectiveness of our method and the correctness of the theory.

Less is More: Enhancing Structured Multi-Agent Reasoning via Quality-Guided Distillation

The XLLM@ACL2025 Shared Task-III formulates a low-resource structural reasoning task that challenges LLMs to generate interpretable, step-by-step rationales with minimal labeled data. We present Less is More, the third-place winning approach in the XLLM@ACL2025 Shared Task-III, which focuses on structured reasoning from only 24 labeled examples. Our approach leverages a multi-agent framework with reverse-prompt induction, retrieval-augmented reasoning synthesis via GPT-4o, and dual-stage reward-guided filtering to distill high-quality supervision across three subtasks: question parsing, CoT parsing, and step-level verification. All modules are fine-tuned from Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct under a unified LoRA+ setup. By combining structure validation with reward filtering across few-shot and zero-shot prompts, our pipeline consistently improves structure reasoning quality. These results underscore the value of controllable data distillation in enhancing structured inference under low-resource constraints. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jiahao-Yuan/Less-is-More.

Exogenous Matching: Learning Good Proposals for Tractable Counterfactual Estimation

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the variance minimization problem into a conditional distribution learning problem, enabling its integration with existing conditional distribution modeling approaches. We validate the theoretical results through experiments under various types and settings of Structural Causal Models (SCMs) and demonstrate the outperformance on counterfactual estimation tasks compared to other existing importance sampling methods. We also explore the impact of injecting structural prior knowledge (counterfactual Markov boundaries) on the results. Finally, we apply this method to identifiable proxy SCMs and demonstrate the unbiasedness of the estimates, empirically illustrating the applicability of the method to practical scenarios.

Reversal of Thought: Enhancing Large Language Models with Preference-Guided Reverse Reasoning Warm-up

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance in reasoning tasks but face limitations in mathematical and complex logical reasoning. Existing methods to improve LLMs' logical capabilities either involve traceable or verifiable logical sequences that generate more reliable responses by constructing logical structures yet increase computational costs, or introduces rigid logic template rules, reducing flexibility. In this paper, we propose Reversal of Thought (RoT), a novel framework aimed at enhancing the logical reasoning abilities of LLMs. RoT utilizes a Preference-Guided Reverse Reasoning warm-up strategy, which integrates logical symbols for pseudocode planning through meta-cognitive mechanisms and pairwise preference self-evaluation to generate task-specific prompts solely through demonstrations, aligning with LLMs' cognitive preferences shaped by Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF). Through reverse reasoning, we ultilize a Cognitive Preference Manager to assess knowledge boundaries and further expand LLMs' reasoning capabilities by aggregating solution logic for known tasks and stylistic templates for unknown tasks. Experiments across various tasks demonstrate that RoT surpasses existing baselines in both reasoning accuracy and efficiency.

Spatio-temporal Value Semantics-based Abstraction for Dense Deep Reinforcement Learning

Intelligent Cyber-Physical Systems (ICPS) represent a specialized form of Cyber-Physical System (CPS) that incorporates intelligent components, notably Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), to undertake multifaceted tasks encompassing perception, decision-making, and control. The utilization of DRL for decision-making facilitates dynamic interaction with the environment, generating control actions aimed at maximizing cumulative rewards. Nevertheless, the inherent uncertainty of the operational environment and the intricate nature of ICPS necessitate exploration within complex and dynamic state spaces during the learning phase. DRL confronts challenges in terms of efficiency, generalization capabilities, and data scarcity during decision-making process. In response to these challenges, we propose an innovative abstract modeling approach grounded in spatial-temporal value semantics, capturing the evolution in the distribution of semantic value across time and space. A semantics-based abstraction is introduced to construct an abstract Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the DRL learning process. Furthermore, optimization techniques for abstraction are delineated, aiming to refine the abstract model and mitigate semantic gaps between abstract and concrete states. The efficacy of the abstract modeling is assessed through the evaluation and analysis of the abstract MDP model using PRISM. A series of experiments are conducted, involving diverse scenarios such as lane-keeping, adaptive cruise control, and intersection crossroad assistance, to demonstrate the effectiveness of our abstracting approach.

CIER: A Novel Experience Replay Approach with Causal Inference in Deep Reinforcement Learning

In the training process of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), agents require repetitive interactions with the environment. With an increase in training volume and model complexity, it is still a challenging problem to enhance data utilization and explainability of DRL training. This paper addresses these challenges by focusing on the temporal correlations within the time dimension of time series. We propose a novel approach to segment multivariate time series into meaningful subsequences and represent the time series based on these subsequences. Furthermore, the subsequences are employed for causal inference to identify fundamental causal factors that significantly impact training outcomes. We design a module to provide feedback on the causality during DRL training. Several experiments demonstrate the feasibility of our approach in common environments, confirming its ability to enhance the effectiveness of DRL training and impart a certain level of explainability to the training process. Additionally, we extended our approach with priority experience replay algorithm, and experimental results demonstrate the continued effectiveness of our approach.

MCNS: Mining Causal Natural Structures Inside Time Series via A Novel Internal Causality Scheme

Causal inference permits us to discover covert relationships of various variables in time series. However, in most existing works, the variables mentioned above are the dimensions. The causality between dimensions could be cursory, which hinders the comprehension of the internal relationship and the benefit of the causal graph to the neural networks (NNs). In this paper, we find that causality exists not only outside but also inside the time series because it reflects a succession of events in the real world. It inspires us to seek the relationship between internal subsequences. However, the challenges are the hardship of discovering causality from subsequences and utilizing the causal natural structures to improve NNs. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework called Mining Causal Natural Structure (MCNS), which is automatic and domain-agnostic and helps to find the causal natural structures inside time series via the internal causality scheme. We evaluate the MCNS framework and impregnation NN with MCNS on time series classification tasks. Experimental results illustrate that our impregnation, by refining attention, shape selection classification, and pruning datasets, drives NN, even the data itself preferable accuracy and interpretability. Besides, MCNS provides an in-depth, solid summary of the time series and datasets.

Meta Pattern Concern Score: A Novel Metric for Customizable Evaluation of Multi-classification

Classifiers have been widely implemented in practice, while how to evaluate them properly remains a problem. Commonly used two types of metrics respectively based on confusion matrix and loss function have different advantages in flexibility and mathematical completeness, while they struggle in different dilemmas like the insensitivity to slight improvements or the lack of customizability in different tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel metric named Meta Pattern Concern Score based on the abstract representation of the probabilistic prediction, as well as the targeted design for processing negative classes in multi-classification and reducing the discreteness of metric value, to achieve advantages of both the two kinds of metrics and avoid their weaknesses. Our metric provides customizability to pick out the model for specific requirements in different practices, and make sure it is also fine under traditional metrics at the same time. Evaluation in four kinds of models and six datasets demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of our metric, and a case study shows it can select a model to reduce 0.53% of dangerous misclassifications by sacrificing only 0.04% of training accuracy.

TSFool: Crafting High-quality Adversarial Time Series through Multi-objective Optimization to Fool Recurrent Neural Network Classifiers

Deep neural network (DNN) classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Although the existing gradient-based attacks have achieved good performance in feed-forward model and image recognition tasks, the extension for time series classification in the recurrent neural network (RNN) remains a dilemma, because the cyclical structure of RNN prevents direct model differentiation and the visual sensitivity to perturbations of time series data challenges the traditional local optimization objective to minimize perturbation. In this paper, an efficient and widely applicable approach called TSFool for crafting high-quality adversarial time series for the RNN classifier is proposed. We propose a novel global optimization objective named Camouflage Coefficient to consider how well the adversarial samples hide in class clusters, and accordingly redefine the high-quality adversarial attack as a multi-objective optimization problem. We also propose a new idea to use intervalized weighted finite automata (IWFA) to capture deeply embedded vulnerable samples having otherness between features and latent manifold to guide the approximation to the optimization solution. Experiments on 22 UCR datasets are conducted to confirm that TSFool is a widely effective, efficient and high-quality approach with 93.22% less local perturbation, 32.33% better global camouflage, and 1.12 times speedup to existing methods.