Exogenous Matching: Learning Good Proposals for Tractable Counterfactual Estimation

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the variance minimization problem into a conditional distribution learning problem, enabling its integration with existing conditional distribution modeling approaches. We validate the theoretical results through experiments under various types and settings of Structural Causal Models (SCMs) and demonstrate the outperformance on counterfactual estimation tasks compared to other existing importance sampling methods. We also explore the impact of injecting structural prior knowledge (counterfactual Markov boundaries) on the results. Finally, we apply this method to identifiable proxy SCMs and demonstrate the unbiasedness of the estimates, empirically illustrating the applicability of the method to practical scenarios.

CIER: A Novel Experience Replay Approach with Causal Inference in Deep Reinforcement Learning

In the training process of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), agents require repetitive interactions with the environment. With an increase in training volume and model complexity, it is still a challenging problem to enhance data utilization and explainability of DRL training. This paper addresses these challenges by focusing on the temporal correlations within the time dimension of time series. We propose a novel approach to segment multivariate time series into meaningful subsequences and represent the time series based on these subsequences. Furthermore, the subsequences are employed for causal inference to identify fundamental causal factors that significantly impact training outcomes. We design a module to provide feedback on the causality during DRL training. Several experiments demonstrate the feasibility of our approach in common environments, confirming its ability to enhance the effectiveness of DRL training and impart a certain level of explainability to the training process. Additionally, we extended our approach with priority experience replay algorithm, and experimental results demonstrate the continued effectiveness of our approach.