Time-FFM: Towards LM-Empowered Federated Foundation Model for Time Series Forecasting

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential of language models (LMs) for time series analysis, dedicated parameters for various downstream forecasting tasks need training, which hinders the common knowledge sharing across domains. Moreover, data owners may hesitate to share the access to local data due to privacy concerns and copyright protection, which makes it impossible to simply construct a FM on cross-domain training instances. To address these issues, we propose Time-FFM, a Federated Foundation Model for Time series forecasting by leveraging pretrained LMs. Specifically, we begin by transforming time series into the modality of text tokens. To bootstrap LMs for time series reasoning, we propose a prompt adaption module to determine domain-customized prompts dynamically instead of artificially. Given the data heterogeneity across domains, we design a personalized federated training strategy by learning global encoders and local prediction heads. Our comprehensive experiments indicate that Time-FFM outperforms state-of-the-arts and promises effective few-shot and zero-shot forecaster.

Personalized Federated Learning for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting: A Dual Semantic Alignment-Based Contrastive Approach

The existing federated learning (FL) methods for spatio-temporal forecasting fail to capture the inherent spatio-temporal heterogeneity, which calls for personalized FL (PFL) methods to model the spatio-temporally variant patterns. While contrastive learning approach is promising in addressing spatio-temporal heterogeneity, the existing methods are noneffective in determining negative pairs and can hardly apply to PFL paradigm. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel PFL method, named Federated dUal sEmantic aLignment-based contraStive learning (FUELS), which can adaptively align positive and negative pairs based on semantic similarity, thereby injecting precise spatio-temporal heterogeneity into the latent representation space by auxiliary contrastive tasks. From temporal perspective, a hard negative filtering module is introduced to dynamically align heterogeneous temporal representations for the supplemented intra-client contrastive task. From spatial perspective, we design lightweight-but-efficient prototypes as client-level semantic representations, based on which the server evaluates spatial similarity and yields client-customized global prototypes for the supplemented inter-client contrastive task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FUELS outperforms state-of-the-art methods, with communication cost decreasing by around 94%.

Online Spatio-Temporal Correlation-Based Federated Learning for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting (TFF) is of great importance to the construction of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). To mitigate communication burden and tackle with the problem of privacy leakage aroused by centralized forecasting methods, Federated Learning (FL) has been applied to TFF. However, existing FL-based approaches employ batch learning manner, which makes the pre-trained models inapplicable to subsequent traffic data, thus exhibiting subpar prediction performance. In this paper, we perform the first study of forecasting traffic flow adopting Online Learning (OL) manner in FL framework and then propose a novel prediction method named Online Spatio-Temporal Correlation-based Federated Learning (FedOSTC), aiming to guarantee performance gains regardless of traffic fluctuation. Specifically, clients employ Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)-based encoders to obtain the internal temporal patterns inside traffic data sequences. Then, the central server evaluates spatial correlation among clients via Graph Attention Network (GAT), catering to the dynamic changes of spatial closeness caused by traffic fluctuation. Furthermore, to improve the generalization of the global model for upcoming traffic data, a period-aware aggregation mechanism is proposed to aggregate the local models which are optimized using Online Gradient Descent (OGD) algorithm at clients. We perform comprehensive experiments on two real-world datasets to validate the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed method and the numerical results demonstrate the superiority of FedOSTC.

Exploring the Distributed Knowledge Congruence in Proxy-data-free Federated Distillation

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed machine learning paradigm in which the server periodically aggregates local model parameters from clients without assembling their private data. Constrained communication and personalization requirements pose severe challenges to FL. Federated distillation (FD) is proposed to simultaneously address the above two problems, which exchanges knowledge between the server and clients, supporting heterogeneous local models while significantly reducing communication overhead. However, most existing FD methods require a proxy dataset, which is often unavailable in reality. A few recent proxy-data-free FD approaches can eliminate the need for additional public data, but suffer from remarkable discrepancy among local knowledge due to model heterogeneity, leading to ambiguous representation on the server and inevitable accuracy degradation. To tackle this issue, we propose a proxy-data-free FD algorithm based on distributed knowledge congruence (FedDKC). FedDKC leverages well-designed refinement strategies to narrow local knowledge differences into an acceptable upper bound, so as to mitigate the negative effects of knowledge incongruence. Specifically, from perspectives of peak probability and Shannon entropy of local knowledge, we design kernel-based knowledge refinement (KKR) and searching-based knowledge refinement (SKR) respectively, and theoretically guarantee that the refined-local knowledge can satisfy an approximately-similar distribution and be regarded as congruent. Extensive experiments conducted on three common datasets demonstrate that our proposed FedDKC significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art (accuracy boosts in 93.33% comparisons, Top-1 accuracy boosts by up to 4.38%, and Top-5 accuracy boosts by up to 10.31%) on various heterogeneous settings while evidently improving the convergence speed.