Equitable Evaluation via Elicitation

Individuals with similar qualifications and skills may vary in their demeanor, or outward manner: some tend toward self-promotion while others are modest to the point of omitting crucial information. Comparing the self-descriptions of equally qualified job-seekers with different self-presentation styles is therefore problematic. We build an interactive AI for skill elicitation that provides accurate determination of skills while simultaneously allowing individuals to speak in their own voice. Such a system can be deployed, for example, when a new user joins a professional networking platform, or when matching employees to needs during a company reorganization. To obtain sufficient training data, we train an LLM to act as synthetic humans. Elicitation mitigates endogenous bias arising from individuals' own self-reports. To address systematic model bias we enforce a mathematically rigorous notion of equitability ensuring that the covariance between self-presentation manner and skill evaluation error is small.

A Statistical Framework for Alignment with Biased AI Feedback

Modern alignment pipelines are increasingly replacing expensive human preference labels with evaluations from large language models (LLM-as-Judge). However, AI labels can be systematically biased compared to high-quality human feedback datasets. In this paper, we develop two debiased alignment methods within a general framework that accommodates heterogeneous prompt-response distributions and external human feedback sources. Debiased Direct Preference Optimization (DDPO) augments standard DPO with a residual-based correction and density-ratio reweighting to mitigate systematic bias, while retaining DPO's computational efficiency. Debiased Identity Preference Optimization (DIPO) directly estimates human preference probabilities without imposing a parametric reward model. We provide theoretical guarantees for both methods: DDPO offers a practical and computationally efficient solution for large-scale alignment, whereas DIPO serves as a robust, statistically optimal alternative that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound. Empirical studies on sentiment generation, summarization, and single-turn dialogue demonstrate that the proposed methods substantially improve alignment efficiency and recover performance close to that of an oracle trained on fully human-labeled data.

PieArena: Frontier Language Agents Achieve MBA-Level Negotiation Performance and Reveal Novel Behavioral Differences

We present an in-depth evaluation of LLMs' ability to negotiate, a central business task that requires strategic reasoning, theory of mind, and economic value creation. To do so, we introduce PieArena, a large-scale negotiation benchmark grounded in multi-agent interactions over realistic scenarios drawn from an MBA negotiation course at an elite business school. We find systematic evidence of AGI-level performance in which a representative frontier agent (GPT-5) matches or outperforms trained business-school students, despite a semester of general negotiation instruction and targeted coaching immediately prior to the task. We further study the effects of joint-intentionality agentic scaffolding and find asymmetric gains, with large improvements for mid- and lower-tier LMs and diminishing returns for frontier LMs. Beyond deal outcomes, PieArena provides a multi-dimensional negotiation behavioral profile, revealing novel cross-model heterogeneity, masked by deal-outcome-only benchmarks, in deception, computation accuracy, instruction compliance, and perceived reputation. Overall, our results suggest that frontier language agents are already intellectually and psychologically capable of deployment in high-stakes economic settings, but deficiencies in robustness and trustworthiness remain open challenges.

Reliable and Responsible Foundation Models: A Comprehensive Survey

Foundation models, including Large Language Models (LLMs), Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), Image Generative Models (i.e, Text-to-Image Models and Image-Editing Models), and Video Generative Models, have become essential tools with broad applications across various domains such as law, medicine, education, finance, science, and beyond. As these models see increasing real-world deployment, ensuring their reliability and responsibility has become critical for academia, industry, and government. This survey addresses the reliable and responsible development of foundation models. We explore critical issues, including bias and fairness, security and privacy, uncertainty, explainability, and distribution shift. Our research also covers model limitations, such as hallucinations, as well as methods like alignment and Artificial Intelligence-Generated Content (AIGC) detection. For each area, we review the current state of the field and outline concrete future research directions. Additionally, we discuss the intersections between these areas, highlighting their connections and shared challenges. We hope our survey fosters the development of foundation models that are not only powerful but also ethical, trustworthy, reliable, and socially responsible.

Unified Inference Framework for Single and Multi-Player Performative Prediction: Method and Asymptotic Optimality

Performative prediction characterizes environments where predictive models alter the very data distributions they aim to forecast, triggering complex feedback loops. While prior research treats single-agent and multi-agent performativity as distinct phenomena, this paper introduces a unified statistical inference framework that bridges these contexts, treating the former as a special case of the latter. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we put forward the Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) procedure for estimating the performative stability, and establish a rigorous inferential theory for admitting its asymptotic normality and confirming its asymptotic efficiency. Second, for the performative optimality, we introduce a novel two-step plug-in estimator that integrates the idea of Recalibrated Prediction Powered Inference (RePPI) with Importance Sampling, and further provide formal derivations for the Central Limit Theorems of both the underlying distributional parameters and the plug-in results. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that our estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound and maintains robustness under mild distributional misspecification. This work provides a principled toolkit for reliable estimation and decision-making in dynamic, performative environments.

Evaluating LLMs When They Do Not Know the Answer: Statistical Evaluation of Mathematical Reasoning via Comparative Signals

Evaluating mathematical reasoning in LLMs is constrained by limited benchmark sizes and inherent model stochasticity, yielding high-variance accuracy estimates and unstable rankings across platforms. On difficult problems, an LLM may fail to produce a correct final answer, yet still provide reliable pairwise comparison signals indicating which of two candidate solutions is better. We leverage this observation to design a statistically efficient evaluation framework that combines standard labeled outcomes with pairwise comparison signals obtained by having models judge auxiliary reasoning chains. Treating these comparison signals as control variates, we develop a semiparametric estimator based on the efficient influence function (EIF) for the setting where auxiliary reasoning chains are observed. This yields a one-step estimator that achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound, guarantees strict variance reduction over naive sample averaging, and admits asymptotic normality for principled uncertainty quantification. Across simulations, our one-step estimator substantially improves ranking accuracy, with gains increasing as model output noise grows. Experiments on GPQA Diamond, AIME 2025, and GSM8K further demonstrate more precise performance estimation and more reliable model rankings, especially in small-sample regimes where conventional evaluation is pretty unstable.

Alternating Reinforcement Learning for Rubric-Based Reward Modeling in Non-Verifiable LLM Post-Training

Standard reward models typically predict scalar scores that fail to capture the multifaceted nature of response quality in non-verifiable domains, such as creative writing or open-ended instruction following. To address this limitation, we propose Rubric-ARM, a framework that jointly optimizes a rubric generator and a judge using reinforcement learning from preference feedback. Unlike existing methods that rely on static rubrics or disjoint training pipelines, our approach treats rubric generation as a latent action learned to maximize judgment accuracy. We introduce an alternating optimization strategy to mitigate the non-stationarity of simultaneous updates, providing theoretical analysis that demonstrates how this schedule reduces gradient variance during training. Extensive experiments show that Rubric-ARM achieves state-of-the-art performance among baselines on multiple benchmarks and significantly improves downstream policy alignment in both offline and online reinforcement learning settings.

Labels or Preferences? Budget-Constrained Learning with Human Judgments over AI-Generated Outputs

The increasing reliance on human preference feedback to judge AI-generated pseudo labels has created a pressing need for principled, budget-conscious data acquisition strategies. We address the crucial question of how to optimally allocate a fixed annotation budget between ground-truth labels and pairwise preferences in AI. Our solution, grounded in semi-parametric inference, casts the budget allocation problem as a monotone missing data framework. Building on this formulation, we introduce Preference-Calibrated Active Learning (PCAL), a novel method that learns the optimal data acquisition strategy and develops a statistically efficient estimator for functionals of the data distribution. Theoretically, we prove the asymptotic optimality of our PCAL estimator and establish a key robustness guarantee that ensures robust performance even with poorly estimated nuisance models. Our flexible framework applies to a general class of problems, by directly optimizing the estimator's variance instead of requiring a closed-form solution. This work provides a principled and statistically efficient approach for budget-constrained learning in modern AI. Simulations and real-data analysis demonstrate the practical benefits and superior performance of our proposed method.

Personalizing black-box models for nonparametric regression with minimax optimality

Recent advances in large-scale models, including deep neural networks and large language models, have substantially improved performance across a wide range of learning tasks. The widespread availability of such pre-trained models creates new opportunities for data-efficient statistical learning, provided they can be effectively integrated into downstream tasks. Motivated by this setting, we study few-shot personalization, where a pre-trained black-box model is adapted to a target domain using a limited number of samples. We develop a theoretical framework for few-shot personalization in nonparametric regression and propose algorithms that can incorporate a black-box pre-trained model into the regression procedure. We establish the minimax optimal rate for the personalization problem and show that the proposed method attains this rate. Our results clarify the statistical benefits of leveraging pre-trained models under sample scarcity and provide robustness guarantees when the pre-trained model is not informative. We illustrate the finite-sample performance of the methods through simulations and an application to the California housing dataset with several pre-trained models.

Bias-Corrected Data Synthesis for Imbalanced Learning

Imbalanced data, where the positive samples represent only a small proportion compared to the negative samples, makes it challenging for classification problems to balance the false positive and false negative rates. A common approach to addressing the challenge involves generating synthetic data for the minority group and then training classification models with both observed and synthetic data. However, since the synthetic data depends on the observed data and fails to replicate the original data distribution accurately, prediction accuracy is reduced when the synthetic data is naively treated as the true data. In this paper, we address the bias introduced by synthetic data and provide consistent estimators for this bias by borrowing information from the majority group. We propose a bias correction procedure to mitigate the adverse effects of synthetic data, enhancing prediction accuracy while avoiding overfitting. This procedure is extended to broader scenarios with imbalanced data, such as imbalanced multi-task learning and causal inference. Theoretical properties, including bounds on bias estimation errors and improvements in prediction accuracy, are provided. Simulation results and data analysis on handwritten digit datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.