Multi-modal Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey

Multi-modal time series analysis has recently emerged as a prominent research area in data mining, driven by the increasing availability of diverse data modalities, such as text, images, and structured tabular data from real-world sources. However, effective analysis of multi-modal time series is hindered by data heterogeneity, modality gap, misalignment, and inherent noise. Recent advancements in multi-modal time series methods have exploited the multi-modal context via cross-modal interactions based on deep learning methods, significantly enhancing various downstream tasks. In this tutorial and survey, we present a systematic and up-to-date overview of multi-modal time series datasets and methods. We first state the existing challenges of multi-modal time series analysis and our motivations, with a brief introduction of preliminaries. Then, we summarize the general pipeline and categorize existing methods through a unified cross-modal interaction framework encompassing fusion, alignment, and transference at different levels (\textit{i.e.}, input, intermediate, output), where key concepts and ideas are highlighted. We also discuss the real-world applications of multi-modal analysis for both standard and spatial time series, tailored to general and specific domains. Finally, we discuss future research directions to help practitioners explore and exploit multi-modal time series. The up-to-date resources are provided in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/Multi-modal-Time-Series-Analysis

Cross-platform Prediction of Depression Treatment Outcome Using Location Sensory Data on Smartphones

Currently, depression treatment relies on closely monitoring patients response to treatment and adjusting the treatment as needed. Using self-reported or physician-administrated questionnaires to monitor treatment response is, however, burdensome, costly and suffers from recall bias. In this paper, we explore using location sensory data collected passively on smartphones to predict treatment outcome. To address heterogeneous data collection on Android and iOS phones, the two predominant smartphone platforms, we explore using domain adaptation techniques to map their data to a common feature space, and then use the data jointly to train machine learning models. Our results show that this domain adaptation approach can lead to significantly better prediction than that with no domain adaptation. In addition, our results show that using location features and baseline self-reported questionnaire score can lead to F1 score up to 0.67, comparable to that obtained using periodic self-reported questionnaires, indicating that using location data is a promising direction for predicting depression treatment outcome.

Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loop

Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototype-based time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multi-modal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow -- prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement -- continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9\% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.

Harnessing Vision Models for Time Series Analysis: A Survey

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

From Dense to Sparse: Event Response for Enhanced Residential Load Forecasting

Residential load forecasting (RLF) is crucial for resource scheduling in power systems. Most existing methods utilize all given load records (dense data) to indiscriminately extract the dependencies between historical and future time series. However, there exist important regular patterns residing in the event-related associations among different appliances (sparse knowledge), which have yet been ignored. In this paper, we propose an Event-Response Knowledge Guided approach (ERKG) for RLF by incorporating the estimation of electricity usage events for different appliances, mining event-related sparse knowledge from the load series. With ERKG, the event-response estimation enables portraying the electricity consumption behaviors of residents, revealing regular variations in appliance operational states. To be specific, ERKG consists of knowledge extraction and guidance: i) a forecasting model is designed for the electricity usage events by estimating appliance operational states, aiming to extract the event-related sparse knowledge; ii) a novel knowledge-guided mechanism is established by fusing such state estimates of the appliance events into the RLF model, which can give particular focuses on the patterns of users' electricity consumption behaviors. Notably, ERKG can flexibly serve as a plug-in module to boost the capability of existing forecasting models by leveraging event response. In numerical experiments, extensive comparisons and ablation studies have verified the effectiveness of our ERKG, e.g., over 8% MAE can be reduced on the tested state-of-the-art forecasting models.

Learning System Dynamics without Forgetting

Predicting the trajectories of systems with unknown dynamics (\textit{i.e.} the governing rules) is crucial in various research fields, including physics and biology. This challenge has gathered significant attention from diverse communities. Most existing works focus on learning fixed system dynamics within one single system. However, real-world applications often involve multiple systems with different types of dynamics or evolving systems with non-stationary dynamics (dynamics shifts). When data from those systems are continuously collected and sequentially fed to machine learning models for training, these models tend to be biased toward the most recently learned dynamics, leading to catastrophic forgetting of previously observed/learned system dynamics. To this end, we aim to learn system dynamics via continual learning. Specifically, we present a novel framework of Mode-switching Graph ODE (MS-GODE), which can continually learn varying dynamics and encode the system-specific dynamics into binary masks over the model parameters. During the inference stage, the model can select the most confident mask based on the observational data to identify the system and predict future trajectories accordingly. Empirically, we systematically investigate the task configurations and compare the proposed MS-GODE with state-of-the-art techniques. More importantly, we construct a novel benchmark of biological dynamic systems, featuring diverse systems with disparate dynamics and significantly enriching the research field of machine learning for dynamic systems.

Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey

Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advancements in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored specifically for time series analysis. In this survey, we aim to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either the application or the pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a model-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future research exploration.

Online GNN Evaluation Under Test-time Graph Distribution Shifts

Evaluating the performance of a well-trained GNN model on real-world graphs is a pivotal step for reliable GNN online deployment and serving. Due to a lack of test node labels and unknown potential training-test graph data distribution shifts, conventional model evaluation encounters limitations in calculating performance metrics (e.g., test error) and measuring graph data-level discrepancies, particularly when the training graph used for developing GNNs remains unobserved during test time. In this paper, we study a new research problem, online GNN evaluation, which aims to provide valuable insights into the well-trained GNNs's ability to effectively generalize to real-world unlabeled graphs under the test-time graph distribution shifts. Concretely, we develop an effective learning behavior discrepancy score, dubbed LeBeD, to estimate the test-time generalization errors of well-trained GNN models. Through a novel GNN re-training strategy with a parameter-free optimality criterion, the proposed LeBeD comprehensively integrates learning behavior discrepancies from both node prediction and structure reconstruction perspectives. This enables the effective evaluation of the well-trained GNNs' ability to capture test node semantics and structural representations, making it an expressive metric for estimating the generalization error in online GNN evaluation. Extensive experiments on real-world test graphs under diverse graph distribution shifts could verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, revealing its strong correlation with ground-truth test errors on various well-trained GNN models.

$\textbf{S}^2$IP-LLM: Semantic Space Informed Prompt Learning with LLM for Time Series Forecasting

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM ($S^2$IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, $S^2$IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed $S^2$IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

Weakly Supervised Change Detection via Knowledge Distillation and Multiscale Sigmoid Inference

Change detection, which aims to detect spatial changes from a pair of multi-temporal images due to natural or man-made causes, has been widely applied in remote sensing, disaster management, urban management, etc. Most existing change detection approaches, however, are fully supervised and require labor-intensive pixel-level labels. To address this, we develop a novel weakly supervised change detection technique via Knowledge Distillation and Multiscale Sigmoid Inference (KD-MSI) that leverages image-level labels. In our approach, the Class Activation Maps (CAM) are utilized not only to derive a change probability map but also to serve as a foundation for the knowledge distillation process. This is done through a joint training strategy of the teacher and student networks, enabling the student network to highlight potential change areas more accurately than teacher network based on image-level labels. Moreover, we designed a Multiscale Sigmoid Inference (MSI) module as a post processing step to further refine the change probability map from the trained student network. Empirical results on three public datasets, i.e., WHU-CD, DSIFN-CD, and LEVIR-CD, demonstrate that our proposed technique, with its integrated training strategy, significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art.