Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions.

Learning Morphisms with Gauss-Newton Approximation for Growing Networks

A popular method for Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is based on growing networks via small local changes to the network's architecture called network morphisms. These methods start with a small seed network and progressively grow the network by adding new neurons in an automated way. However, it remains a challenge to efficiently determine which parts of the network are best to grow. Here we propose a NAS method for growing a network by using a Gauss-Newton approximation of the loss function to efficiently learn and evaluate candidate network morphisms. We compare our method with state of the art NAS methods for CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 classification tasks, and conclude our method learns similar quality or better architectures at a smaller computational cost.

Adaptive Video Understanding Agent: Enhancing efficiency with dynamic frame sampling and feedback-driven reasoning

Understanding long-form video content presents significant challenges due to its temporal complexity and the substantial computational resources required. In this work, we propose an agent-based approach to enhance both the efficiency and effectiveness of long-form video understanding by utilizing large language models (LLMs) and their tool-harnessing ability. A key aspect of our method is query-adaptive frame sampling, which leverages the reasoning capabilities of LLMs to process only the most relevant frames in real-time, and addresses an important limitation of existing methods which typically involve sampling redundant or irrelevant frames. To enhance the reasoning abilities of our video-understanding agent, we leverage the self-reflective capabilities of LLMs to provide verbal reinforcement to the agent, which leads to improved performance while minimizing the number of frames accessed. We evaluate our method across several video understanding benchmarks and demonstrate that not only it enhances state-of-the-art performance but also improves efficiency by reducing the number of frames sampled.

SeRA: Self-Reviewing and Alignment of Large Language Models using Implicit Reward Margins

Direct alignment algorithms (DAAs), such as direct preference optimization (DPO), have become popular alternatives for Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) due to their simplicity, efficiency, and stability. However, the preferences used in DAAs are usually collected before the alignment training begins and remain unchanged (off-policy). This can lead to two problems where the policy model (1) picks up on spurious correlations in the dataset (as opposed to learning the intended alignment expressed in the human preference labels), and (2) overfits to feedback on off-policy trajectories that have less likelihood of being generated by an updated policy model. To address these issues, we introduce Self-Reviewing and Alignment (SeRA), a cost-efficient and effective method that can be readily combined with existing DAAs. SeRA comprises of two components: (1) sample selection using implicit reward margins, which helps alleviate over-fitting to some undesired features, and (2) preference bootstrapping using implicit rewards to augment preference data with updated policy models in a cost-efficient manner. Extensive experimentation, including some on instruction-following tasks, demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of SeRA in training LLMs on offline preference datasets with DAAs.

Attribute Controlled Fine-tuning for Large Language Models: A Case Study on Detoxification

We propose a constraint learning schema for fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) with attribute control. Given a training corpus and control criteria formulated as a sequence-level constraint on model outputs, our method fine-tunes the LLM on the training corpus while enhancing constraint satisfaction with minimal impact on its utility and generation quality. Specifically, our approach regularizes the LLM training by penalizing the KL divergence between the desired output distribution, which satisfies the constraints, and the LLM's posterior. This regularization term can be approximated by an auxiliary model trained to decompose the sequence-level constraints into token-level guidance, allowing the term to be measured by a closed-form formulation. To further improve efficiency, we design a parallel scheme for concurrently updating both the LLM and the auxiliary model. We evaluate the empirical performance of our approach by controlling the toxicity when training an LLM. We show that our approach leads to an LLM that produces fewer inappropriate responses while achieving competitive performance on benchmarks and a toxicity detection task.

Data Advisor: Dynamic Data Curation for Safety Alignment of Large Language Models

Data is a crucial element in large language model (LLM) alignment. Recent studies have explored using LLMs for efficient data collection. However, LLM-generated data often suffers from quality issues, with underrepresented or absent aspects and low-quality datapoints. To address these problems, we propose Data Advisor, an enhanced LLM-based method for generating data that takes into account the characteristics of the desired dataset. Starting from a set of pre-defined principles in hand, Data Advisor monitors the status of the generated data, identifies weaknesses in the current dataset, and advises the next iteration of data generation accordingly. Data Advisor can be easily integrated into existing data generation methods to enhance data quality and coverage. Experiments on safety alignment of three representative LLMs (i.e., Mistral, Llama2, and Falcon) demonstrate the effectiveness of Data Advisor in enhancing model safety against various fine-grained safety issues without sacrificing model utility.

Tree-of-Traversals: A Zero-Shot Reasoning Algorithm for Augmenting Black-box Language Models with Knowledge Graphs

Knowledge graphs (KGs) complement Large Language Models (LLMs) by providing reliable, structured, domain-specific, and up-to-date external knowledge. However, KGs and LLMs are often developed separately and must be integrated after training. We introduce Tree-of-Traversals, a novel zero-shot reasoning algorithm that enables augmentation of black-box LLMs with one or more KGs. The algorithm equips a LLM with actions for interfacing a KG and enables the LLM to perform tree search over possible thoughts and actions to find high confidence reasoning paths. We evaluate on two popular benchmark datasets. Our results show that Tree-of-Traversals significantly improves performance on question answering and KG question answering tasks. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/amazon-science/tree-of-traversals}

Leveraging LLMs for Dialogue Quality Measurement

In task-oriented conversational AI evaluation, unsupervised methods poorly correlate with human judgments, and supervised approaches lack generalization. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) show robust zeroshot and few-shot capabilities across NLP tasks. This paper explores using LLMs for automated dialogue quality evaluation, experimenting with various configurations on public and proprietary datasets. Manipulating factors such as model size, in-context examples, and selection techniques, we examine "chain-of-thought" (CoT) reasoning and label extraction procedures. Our results show that (1) larger models yield more accurate dialogue labels; (2) algorithmic selection of in-context examples outperforms random selection; (3) CoT reasoning where an LLM is asked to provide justifications before outputting final labels improves performance; and (4) fine-tuned LLMs outperform out-of-the-box ones. Our results indicate that LLMs that are suitably fine-tuned and have sufficient reasoning capabilities can be leveraged for automated dialogue evaluation.

Prompt Perturbation Consistency Learning for Robust Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on a number of natural language processing tasks, such as question answering and text summarization. However, their performance on sequence labeling tasks such as intent classification and slot filling (IC-SF), which is a central component in personal assistant systems, lags significantly behind discriminative models. Furthermore, there is a lack of substantive research on the robustness of LLMs to various perturbations in the input prompts. The contributions of this paper are three-fold. First, we show that fine-tuning sufficiently large LLMs can produce IC-SF performance comparable to discriminative models. Next, we systematically analyze the performance deterioration of those fine-tuned models due to three distinct yet relevant types of input perturbations - oronyms, synonyms, and paraphrasing. Finally, we propose an efficient mitigation approach, Prompt Perturbation Consistency Learning (PPCL), which works by regularizing the divergence between losses from clean and perturbed samples. Our experiments demonstrate that PPCL can recover on average 59% and 69% of the performance drop for IC and SF tasks, respectively. Furthermore, PPCL beats the data augmentation approach while using ten times fewer augmented data samples.

Contrastive Instruction Tuning

Instruction tuning has been used as a promising approach to improve the performance of large language models (LLMs) on unseen tasks. However, current LLMs exhibit limited robustness to unseen instructions, generating inconsistent outputs when the same instruction is phrased with slightly varied forms or language styles. This behavior indicates LLMs' lack of robustness to textual variations and generalizability to unseen instructions, potentially leading to trustworthiness issues. Accordingly, we propose Contrastive Instruction Tuning, which maximizes the similarity between the hidden representations of semantically equivalent instruction-instance pairs while minimizing the similarity between semantically different ones. To facilitate this approach, we augment the existing FLAN collection by paraphrasing task instructions. Experiments on the PromptBench benchmark show that CoIN consistently improves LLMs' robustness to unseen instructions with variations across character, word, sentence, and semantic levels by an average of +2.5% in accuracy.