FlexTSF: A Universal Forecasting Model for Time Series with Variable Regularities

Developing a foundation model for time series forecasting across diverse domains has attracted significant attention in recent years. Existing works typically assume regularly sampled, well-structured data, limiting their applicability to more generalized scenarios where time series often contain missing values, unequal sequence lengths, and irregular time intervals between measurements. To cover diverse domains and handle variable regularities, we propose FlexTSF, a universal time series forecasting model that possesses better generalization and natively support both regular and irregular time series. FlexTSF produces forecasts in an autoregressive manner and incorporates three novel designs: VT-Norm, a normalization strategy to ablate data domain barriers, IVP Patcher, a patching module to learn representations from flexibly structured time series, and LED attention, an attention mechanism to seamlessly integrate these two and propagate forecasts with awareness of domain and time information. Experiments on 12 datasets show that FlexTSF outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting models respectively designed for regular and irregular time series. Furthermore, after self-supervised pre-training, FlexTSF shows exceptional performance in both zero-shot and few-show settings for time series forecasting.

Towards Precision Healthcare: Robust Fusion of Time Series and Image Data

With the increasing availability of diverse data types, particularly images and time series data from medical experiments, there is a growing demand for techniques designed to combine various modalities of data effectively. Our motivation comes from the important areas of predicting mortality and phenotyping where using different modalities of data could significantly improve our ability to predict. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new method that uses two separate encoders, one for each type of data, allowing the model to understand complex patterns in both visual and time-based information. Apart from the technical challenges, our goal is to make the predictive model more robust in noisy conditions and perform better than current methods. We also deal with imbalanced datasets and use an uncertainty loss function, yielding improved results while simultaneously providing a principled means of modeling uncertainty. Additionally, we include attention mechanisms to fuse different modalities, allowing the model to focus on what's important for each task. We tested our approach using the comprehensive multimodal MIMIC dataset, combining MIMIC-IV and MIMIC-CXR datasets. Our experiments show that our method is effective in improving multimodal deep learning for clinical applications. The code will be made available online.

TIGQA:An Expert Annotated Question Answering Dataset in Tigrinya

The absence of explicitly tailored, accessible annotated datasets for educational purposes presents a notable obstacle for NLP tasks in languages with limited resources.This study initially explores the feasibility of using machine translation (MT) to convert an existing dataset into a Tigrinya dataset in SQuAD format. As a result, we present TIGQA, an expert annotated educational dataset consisting of 2.68K question-answer pairs covering 122 diverse topics such as climate, water, and traffic. These pairs are from 537 context paragraphs in publicly accessible Tigrinya and Biology books. Through comprehensive analyses, we demonstrate that the TIGQA dataset requires skills beyond simple word matching, requiring both single-sentence and multiple-sentence inference abilities. We conduct experiments using state-of-the art MRC methods, marking the first exploration of such models on TIGQA. Additionally, we estimate human performance on the dataset and juxtapose it with the results obtained from pretrained models.The notable disparities between human performance and best model performance underscore the potential for further enhancements to TIGQA through continued research. Our dataset is freely accessible via the provided link to encourage the research community to address the challenges in the Tigrinya MRC.

Beyond Accuracy: Investigating Error Types in GPT-4 Responses to USMLE Questions

GPT-4 demonstrates high accuracy in medical QA tasks, leading with an accuracy of 86.70%, followed by Med-PaLM 2 at 86.50%. However, around 14% of errors remain. Additionally, current works use GPT-4 to only predict the correct option without providing any explanation and thus do not provide any insight into the thinking process and reasoning used by GPT-4 or other LLMs. Therefore, we introduce a new domain-specific error taxonomy derived from collaboration with medical students. Our GPT-4 USMLE Error (G4UE) dataset comprises 4153 GPT-4 correct responses and 919 incorrect responses to the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) respectively. These responses are quite long (258 words on average), containing detailed explanations from GPT-4 justifying the selected option. We then launch a large-scale annotation study using the Potato annotation platform and recruit 44 medical experts through Prolific, a well-known crowdsourcing platform. We annotated 300 out of these 919 incorrect data points at a granular level for different classes and created a multi-label span to identify the reasons behind the error. In our annotated dataset, a substantial portion of GPT-4's incorrect responses is categorized as a "Reasonable response by GPT-4," by annotators. This sheds light on the challenge of discerning explanations that may lead to incorrect options, even among trained medical professionals. We also provide medical concepts and medical semantic predications extracted using the SemRep tool for every data point. We believe that it will aid in evaluating the ability of LLMs to answer complex medical questions. We make the resources available at https://github.com/roysoumya/usmle-gpt4-error-taxonomy .

ECOR: Explainable CLIP for Object Recognition

Large Vision Language Models (VLMs), such as CLIP, have significantly contributed to various computer vision tasks, including object recognition and object detection. Their open vocabulary feature enhances their value. However, their black-box nature and lack of explainability in predictions make them less trustworthy in critical domains. Recently, some work has been done to force VLMs to provide reasonable rationales for object recognition, but this often comes at the expense of classification accuracy. In this paper, we first propose a mathematical definition of explainability in the object recognition task based on the joint probability distribution of categories and rationales, then leverage this definition to fine-tune CLIP in an explainable manner. Through evaluations of different datasets, our method demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in explainable classification. Notably, it excels in zero-shot settings, showcasing its adaptability. This advancement improves explainable object recognition, enhancing trust across diverse applications. The code will be made available online upon publication.

GeneMask: Fast Pretraining of Gene Sequences to Enable Few-Shot Learning

Large-scale language models such as DNABert and LOGO aim to learn optimal gene representations and are trained on the entire Human Reference Genome. However, standard tokenization schemes involve a simple sliding window of tokens like k-mers that do not leverage any gene-based semantics and thus may lead to (trivial) masking of easily predictable sequences and subsequently inefficient Masked Language Modeling (MLM) training. Therefore, we propose a novel masking algorithm, GeneMask, for MLM training of gene sequences, where we randomly identify positions in a gene sequence as mask centers and locally select the span around the mask center with the highest Normalized Pointwise Mutual Information (NPMI) to mask. We observe that in the absence of human-understandable semantics in the genomics domain (in contrast, semantic units like words and phrases are inherently available in NLP), GeneMask-based models substantially outperform the SOTA models (DNABert and LOGO) over four benchmark gene sequence classification datasets in five few-shot settings (10 to 1000-shot). More significantly, the GeneMask-based DNABert model is trained for less than one-tenth of the number of epochs of the original SOTA model. We also observe a strong correlation between top-ranked PMI tokens and conserved DNA sequence motifs, which may indicate the incorporation of latent genomic information. The codes (including trained models) and datasets are made publicly available at https://github.com/roysoumya/GeneMask.

IVP-VAE: Modeling EHR Time Series with Initial Value Problem Solvers

Continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and Neural Flows have shown promising results in analyzing irregularly sampled time series frequently encountered in electronic health records. Based on these models, time series are typically processed with a hybrid of an initial value problem (IVP) solver and a recurrent neural network within the variational autoencoder architecture. Sequentially solving IVPs makes such models computationally less efficient. In this paper, we propose to model time series purely with continuous processes whose state evolution can be approximated directly by IVPs. This eliminates the need for recurrent computation and enables multiple states to evolve in parallel. We further fuse the encoder and decoder with one IVP solver based on its invertibility, which leads to fewer parameters and faster convergence. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that the proposed approach achieves comparable extrapolation and classification performance while gaining more than one order of magnitude speedup over other continuous-time counterparts.

A Review of the Role of Causality in Developing Trustworthy AI Systems

State-of-the-art AI models largely lack an understanding of the cause-effect relationship that governs human understanding of the real world. Consequently, these models do not generalize to unseen data, often produce unfair results, and are difficult to interpret. This has led to efforts to improve the trustworthiness aspects of AI models. Recently, causal modeling and inference methods have emerged as powerful tools. This review aims to provide the reader with an overview of causal methods that have been developed to improve the trustworthiness of AI models. We hope that our contribution will motivate future research on causality-based solutions for trustworthy AI.

Discrimination and Class Imbalance Aware Online Naive Bayes

Fairness-aware mining of massive data streams is a growing and challenging concern in the contemporary domain of machine learning. Many stream learning algorithms are used to replace humans at critical decision-making points e.g., hiring staff, assessing credit risk, etc. This calls for handling massive incoming information with minimum response delay while ensuring fair and high quality decisions. Recent discrimination-aware learning methods are optimized based on overall accuracy. However, the overall accuracy is biased in favor of the majority class; therefore, state-of-the-art methods mainly diminish discrimination by partially or completely ignoring the minority class. In this context, we propose a novel adaptation of Na\"ive Bayes to mitigate discrimination embedded in the streams while maintaining high predictive performance for both the majority and minority classes. Our proposed algorithm is simple, fast, and attains multi-objective optimization goals. To handle class imbalance and concept drifts, a dynamic instance weighting module is proposed, which gives more importance to recent instances and less importance to obsolete instances based on their membership in minority or majority class. We conducted experiments on a range of streaming and static datasets and deduced that our proposed methodology outperforms existing state-of-the-art fairness-aware methods in terms of both discrimination score and balanced accuracy.

A Multi-task Model for Sentiment Aided Stance Detection of Climate Change Tweets

Climate change has become one of the biggest challenges of our time. Social media platforms such as Twitter play an important role in raising public awareness and spreading knowledge about the dangers of the current climate crisis. With the increasing number of campaigns and communication about climate change through social media, the information could create more awareness and reach the general public and policy makers. However, these Twitter communications lead to polarization of beliefs, opinion-dominated ideologies, and often a split into two communities of climate change deniers and believers. In this paper, we propose a framework that helps identify denier statements on Twitter and thus classifies the stance of the tweet into one of the two attitudes towards climate change (denier/believer). The sentimental aspects of Twitter data on climate change are deeply rooted in general public attitudes toward climate change. Therefore, our work focuses on learning two closely related tasks: Stance Detection and Sentiment Analysis of climate change tweets. We propose a multi-task framework that performs stance detection (primary task) and sentiment analysis (auxiliary task) simultaneously. The proposed model incorporates the feature-specific and shared-specific attention frameworks to fuse multiple features and learn the generalized features for both tasks. The experimental results show that the proposed framework increases the performance of the primary task, i.e., stance detection by benefiting from the auxiliary task, i.e., sentiment analysis compared to its uni-modal and single-task variants.