Which Algorithms Have Tight Generalization Bounds?

We study which machine learning algorithms have tight generalization bounds. First, we present conditions that preclude the existence of tight generalization bounds. Specifically, we show that algorithms that have certain inductive biases that cause them to be unstable do not admit tight generalization bounds. Next, we show that algorithms that are sufficiently stable do have tight generalization bounds. We conclude with a simple characterization that relates the existence of tight generalization bounds to the conditional variance of the algorithm's loss.

Could ChatGPT get an Engineering Degree? Evaluating Higher Education Vulnerability to AI Assistants

AI assistants are being increasingly used by students enrolled in higher education institutions. While these tools provide opportunities for improved teaching and education, they also pose significant challenges for assessment and learning outcomes. We conceptualize these challenges through the lens of vulnerability, the potential for university assessments and learning outcomes to be impacted by student use of generative AI. We investigate the potential scale of this vulnerability by measuring the degree to which AI assistants can complete assessment questions in standard university-level STEM courses. Specifically, we compile a novel dataset of textual assessment questions from 50 courses at EPFL and evaluate whether two AI assistants, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 can adequately answer these questions. We use eight prompting strategies to produce responses and find that GPT-4 answers an average of 65.8% of questions correctly, and can even produce the correct answer across at least one prompting strategy for 85.1% of questions. When grouping courses in our dataset by degree program, these systems already pass non-project assessments of large numbers of core courses in various degree programs, posing risks to higher education accreditation that will be amplified as these models improve. Our results call for revising program-level assessment design in higher education in light of advances in generative AI.

Transformers on Markov Data: Constant Depth Suffices

Attention-based transformers have been remarkably successful at modeling generative processes across various domains and modalities. In this paper, we study the behavior of transformers on data drawn from \kth Markov processes, where the conditional distribution of the next symbol in a sequence depends on the previous $k$ symbols observed. We observe a surprising phenomenon empirically which contradicts previous findings: when trained for sufficiently long, a transformer with a fixed depth and $1$ head per layer is able to achieve low test loss on sequences drawn from \kth Markov sources, even as $k$ grows. Furthermore, this low test loss is achieved by the transformer's ability to represent and learn the in-context conditional empirical distribution. On the theoretical side, our main result is that a transformer with a single head and three layers can represent the in-context conditional empirical distribution for \kth Markov sources, concurring with our empirical observations. Along the way, we prove that \textit{attention-only} transformers with $O(\log_2(k))$ layers can represent the in-context conditional empirical distribution by composing induction heads to track the previous $k$ symbols in the sequence. These results provide more insight into our current understanding of the mechanisms by which transformers learn to capture context, by understanding their behavior on Markov sources.

Fundamental Limits of Prompt Compression: A Rate-Distortion Framework for Black-Box Language Models

We formalize the problem of prompt compression for large language models (LLMs) and present a framework to unify token-level prompt compression methods which create hard prompts for black-box models. We derive the distortion-rate function for this setup as a linear program, and provide an efficient algorithm to compute this fundamental limit via the dual of the linear program. Using the distortion-rate function as the baseline, we study the performance of existing compression schemes on a synthetic dataset consisting of prompts generated from a Markov chain, natural language queries, and their respective answers. Our empirical analysis demonstrates the criticality of query-aware prompt compression, where the compressor has knowledge of the downstream task/query for the black-box LLM. We show that there is a large gap between the performance of current prompt compression methods and the optimal strategy, and propose a query-aware, variable-rate adaptation of a prior work to close the gap. We extend our experiments to a small natural language dataset to further confirm our findings on our synthetic dataset.

Local to Global: Learning Dynamics and Effect of Initialization for Transformers

In recent years, transformer-based models have revolutionized deep learning, particularly in sequence modeling. To better understand this phenomenon, there is a growing interest in using Markov input processes to study transformers. However, our current understanding in this regard remains limited with many fundamental questions about how transformers learn Markov chains still unanswered. In this paper, we address this by focusing on first-order Markov chains and single-layer transformers, providing a comprehensive characterization of the learning dynamics in this context. Specifically, we prove that transformer parameters trained on next-token prediction loss can either converge to global or local minima, contingent on the initialization and the Markovian data properties, and we characterize the precise conditions under which this occurs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result of its kind highlighting the role of initialization. We further demonstrate that our theoretical findings are corroborated by empirical evidence. Based on these insights, we provide guidelines for the initialization of transformer parameters and demonstrate their effectiveness. Finally, we outline several open problems in this arena. Code is available at: \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Local-to-Global-C70B/}.

The Fundamental Limits of Least-Privilege Learning

The promise of least-privilege learning -- to find feature representations that are useful for a learning task but prevent inference of any sensitive information unrelated to this task -- is highly appealing. However, so far this concept has only been stated informally. It thus remains an open question whether and how we can achieve this goal. In this work, we provide the first formalisation of the least-privilege principle for machine learning and characterise its feasibility. We prove that there is a fundamental trade-off between a representation's utility for a given task and its leakage beyond the intended task: it is not possible to learn representations that have high utility for the intended task but, at the same time prevent inference of any attribute other than the task label itself. This trade-off holds regardless of the technique used to learn the feature mappings that produce these representations. We empirically validate this result for a wide range of learning techniques, model architectures, and datasets.

Batch Universal Prediction

Large language models (LLMs) have recently gained much popularity due to their surprising ability at generating human-like English sentences. LLMs are essentially predictors, estimating the probability of a sequence of words given the past. Therefore, it is natural to evaluate their performance from a universal prediction perspective. In order to do that fairly, we introduce the notion of batch regret as a modification of the classical average regret, and we study its asymptotical value for add-constant predictors, in the case of memoryless sources and first-order Markov sources.

Attention with Markov: A Framework for Principled Analysis of Transformers via Markov Chains

In recent years, attention-based transformers have achieved tremendous success across a variety of disciplines including natural languages. A key ingredient behind their success is the generative pretraining procedure, during which these models are trained on a large text corpus in an auto-regressive manner. To shed light on this phenomenon, we propose a new framework that allows both theory and systematic experiments to study the sequential modeling capabilities of transformers through the lens of Markov chains. Inspired by the Markovianity of natural languages, we model the data as a Markovian source and utilize this framework to systematically study the interplay between the data-distributional properties, the transformer architecture, the learnt distribution, and the final model performance. In particular, we theoretically characterize the loss landscape of single-layer transformers and show the existence of global minima and bad local minima contingent upon the specific data characteristics and the transformer architecture. Backed by experiments, we demonstrate that our theoretical findings are in congruence with the empirical results. We further investigate these findings in the broader context of higher order Markov chains and deeper architectures, and outline open problems in this arena. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/Bond1995/Markov}.

Fantastic Generalization Measures are Nowhere to be Found

Numerous generalization bounds have been proposed in the literature as potential explanations for the ability of neural networks to generalize in the overparameterized setting. However, none of these bounds are tight. For instance, in their paper ``Fantastic Generalization Measures and Where to Find Them'', Jiang et al. (2020) examine more than a dozen generalization bounds, and show empirically that none of them imply guarantees that can explain the remarkable performance of neural networks. This raises the question of whether tight generalization bounds are at all possible. We consider two types of generalization bounds common in the literature: (1) bounds that depend on the training set and the output of the learning algorithm. There are multiple bounds of this type in the literature (e.g., norm-based and margin-based bounds), but we prove mathematically that no such bound can be uniformly tight in the overparameterized setting; (2) bounds that depend on the training set and on the learning algorithm (e.g., stability bounds). For these bounds, we show a trade-off between the algorithm's performance and the bound's tightness. Namely, if the algorithm achieves good accuracy on certain distributions in the overparameterized setting, then no generalization bound can be tight for it. We conclude that generalization bounds in the overparameterized setting cannot be tight without suitable assumptions on the population distribution.

Lower Bounds on the Bayesian Risk via Information Measures

This paper focuses on parameter estimation and introduces a new method for lower bounding the Bayesian risk. The method allows for the use of virtually \emph{any} information measure, including R\'enyi's $\alpha$, $\varphi$-Divergences, and Sibson's $\alpha$-Mutual Information. The approach considers divergences as functionals of measures and exploits the duality between spaces of measures and spaces of functions. In particular, we show that one can lower bound the risk with any information measure by upper bounding its dual via Markov's inequality. We are thus able to provide estimator-independent impossibility results thanks to the Data-Processing Inequalities that divergences satisfy. The results are then applied to settings of interest involving both discrete and continuous parameters, including the ``Hide-and-Seek'' problem, and compared to the state-of-the-art techniques. An important observation is that the behaviour of the lower bound in the number of samples is influenced by the choice of the information measure. We leverage this by introducing a new divergence inspired by the ``Hockey-Stick'' Divergence, which is demonstrated empirically to provide the largest lower-bound across all considered settings. If the observations are subject to privatisation, stronger impossibility results can be obtained via Strong Data-Processing Inequalities. The paper also discusses some generalisations and alternative directions.