Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation

Quantitative risk assessment in high-stakes domains relies on structured expert elicitation to estimate unobservable properties. The gold standard - the Delphi method - produces calibrated, auditable judgments but requires months of coordination and specialist time, placing rigorous risk assessment out of reach for most applications. We investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as scalable proxies for structured expert elicitation. We propose Scalable Delphi, adapting the classical protocol for LLMs with diverse expert personas, iterative refinement, and rationale sharing. Because target quantities are typically unobservable, we develop an evaluation framework based on necessary conditions: calibration against verifiable proxies, sensitivity to evidence, and alignment with human expert judgment. We evaluate in the domain of AI-augmented cybersecurity risk, using three capability benchmarks and independent human elicitation studies. LLM panels achieve strong correlations with benchmark ground truth (Pearson r=0.87-0.95), improve systematically as evidence is added, and align with human expert panels - in one comparison, closer to a human panel than the two human panels are to each other. This demonstrates that LLM-based elicitation can extend structured expert judgment to settings where traditional methods are infeasible, reducing elicitation time from months to minutes.

IV Co-Scientist: Multi-Agent LLM Framework for Causal Instrumental Variable Discovery

In the presence of confounding between an endogenous variable and the outcome, instrumental variables (IVs) are used to isolate the causal effect of the endogenous variable. Identifying valid instruments requires interdisciplinary knowledge, creativity, and contextual understanding, making it a non-trivial task. In this paper, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can aid in this task. We perform a two-stage evaluation framework. First, we test whether LLMs can recover well-established instruments from the literature, assessing their ability to replicate standard reasoning. Second, we evaluate whether LLMs can identify and avoid instruments that have been empirically or theoretically discredited. Building on these results, we introduce IV Co-Scientist, a multi-agent system that proposes, critiques, and refines IVs for a given treatment-outcome pair. We also introduce a statistical test to contextualize consistency in the absence of ground truth. Our results show the potential of LLMs to discover valid instrumental variables from a large observational database.

Funny or Persuasive, but Not Both: Evaluating Fine-Grained Multi-Concept Control in LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer strong generative capabilities, but many applications require explicit and \textit{fine-grained} control over specific textual concepts, such as humor, persuasiveness, or formality. Prior approaches in prompting and representation engineering can provide coarse or single-attribute control, but systematic evaluation of multi-attribute settings remains limited. We introduce an evaluation framework for fine-grained controllability for both single- and dual-concept scenarios, focusing on linguistically distinct concept pairs (e.g., persuasiveness vs.~humor). Surprisingly, across multiple LLMs and generative tasks, we find that performance often drops in the dual-concept setting, even though the chosen concepts should in principle be separable. This reveals a fundamental limitation of naive prompting-based control: models struggle with compositionality even when concepts are intuitively independent. Our framework provides systematic evidence of this gap and offers a principled approach for measuring the ability of future methods for multi-concept control.

Probe-based Fine-tuning for Reducing Toxicity

Probes trained on model activations can detect undesirable behaviors like deception or biases that are difficult to identify from outputs alone. This makes them useful detectors to identify misbehavior. Furthermore, they are also valuable training signals, since they not only reward outputs, but also good internal processes for arriving at that output. However, training against interpretability tools raises a fundamental concern: when a monitor becomes a training target, it may cease to be reliable (Goodhart's Law). We propose two methods for training against probes based on Supervised Fine-tuning and Direct Preference Optimization. We conduct an initial exploration of these methods in a testbed for reducing toxicity and evaluate the amount by which probe accuracy drops when training against them. To retain the accuracy of probe-detectors after training, we attempt (1) to train against an ensemble of probes, (2) retain held-out probes that aren't used for training, and (3) retrain new probes after training. First, probe-based preference optimization unexpectedly preserves probe detectability better than classifier-based methods, suggesting the preference learning objective incentivizes maintaining rather than obfuscating relevant representations. Second, probe diversity provides minimal practical benefit - simply retraining probes after optimization recovers high detection accuracy. Our findings suggest probe-based training can be viable for certain alignment methods, though probe ensembles are largely unnecessary when retraining is feasible.

Accept or Deny? Evaluating LLM Fairness and Performance in Loan Approval across Table-to-Text Serialization Approaches

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in high-stakes decision-making tasks, such as loan approvals. While their applications expand across domains, LLMs struggle to process tabular data, ensuring fairness and delivering reliable predictions. In this work, we assess the performance and fairness of LLMs on serialized loan approval datasets from three geographically distinct regions: Ghana, Germany, and the United States. Our evaluation focuses on the model's zero-shot and in-context learning (ICL) capabilities. Our results reveal that the choice of serialization (Serialization refers to the process of converting tabular data into text formats suitable for processing by LLMs.) format significantly affects both performance and fairness in LLMs, with certain formats such as GReat and LIFT yielding higher F1 scores but exacerbating fairness disparities. Notably, while ICL improved model performance by 4.9-59.6% relative to zero-shot baselines, its effect on fairness varied considerably across datasets. Our work underscores the importance of effective tabular data representation methods and fairness-aware models to improve the reliability of LLMs in financial decision-making.

Deepfake Detection that Generalizes Across Benchmarks

The generalization of deepfake detectors to unseen manipulation techniques remains a challenge for practical deployment. Although many approaches adapt foundation models by introducing significant architectural complexity, this work demonstrates that robust generalization is achievable through a parameter-efficient adaptation of a pre-trained CLIP vision encoder. The proposed method, LNCLIP-DF, fine-tunes only the Layer Normalization parameters (0.03% of the total) and enhances generalization by enforcing a hyperspherical feature manifold using L2 normalization and latent space augmentations. We conducted an extensive evaluation on 13 benchmark datasets spanning from 2019 to 2025. The proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming more complex, recent approaches in average cross-dataset AUROC. Our analysis yields two primary findings for the field: 1) training on paired real-fake data from the same source video is essential for mitigating shortcut learning and improving generalization, and 2) detection difficulty on academic datasets has not strictly increased over time, with models trained on older, diverse datasets showing strong generalization capabilities. This work delivers a computationally efficient and reproducible method, proving that state-of-the-art generalization is attainable by making targeted, minimal changes to a pre-trained CLIP model. The code will be made publicly available upon acceptance.

Pixel-level Certified Explanations via Randomized Smoothing

Post-hoc attribution methods aim to explain deep learning predictions by highlighting influential input pixels. However, these explanations are highly non-robust: small, imperceptible input perturbations can drastically alter the attribution map while maintaining the same prediction. This vulnerability undermines their trustworthiness and calls for rigorous robustness guarantees of pixel-level attribution scores. We introduce the first certification framework that guarantees pixel-level robustness for any black-box attribution method using randomized smoothing. By sparsifying and smoothing attribution maps, we reformulate the task as a segmentation problem and certify each pixel's importance against $\ell_2$-bounded perturbations. We further propose three evaluation metrics to assess certified robustness, localization, and faithfulness. An extensive evaluation of 12 attribution methods across 5 ImageNet models shows that our certified attributions are robust, interpretable, and faithful, enabling reliable use in downstream tasks. Our code is at https://github.com/AlaaAnani/certified-attributions.

ProtocolLLM: RTL Benchmark for SystemVerilog Generation of Communication Protocols

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promising capabilities in generating code for general-purpose programming languages. In contrast, their applicability for hardware description languages, particularly for generating synthesizable and functionally correct designs, remains significantly underexplored. HDLs such as SystemVerilog are logic-oriented and demand strict adherence to timing semantics, concurrency, and synthesizability constraints. Moreover, HDL-based design flows encompass a broad set of tasks beyond structural code generation, including testbench development, assertion-based verification, timing closure, and protocol-level integration for on-chip communication. The objective of our paper is to analyze the capabilities of state-of-the-art LLMs in generating SystemVerilog implementations of standard communication protocols, a core component of embedded and System-on-Chip (SoC) architectures. This paper introduces the first benchmark suite targeting four widely used protocols: SPI, I2C, UART, and AXI. We define code generation tasks that capture varying levels of design abstraction and prompt specificity. The generated designs are assessed for syntactic correctness, synthesizability, and functional fidelity via waveform simulation and test benches.

Stealix: Model Stealing via Prompt Evolution

Model stealing poses a significant security risk in machine learning by enabling attackers to replicate a black-box model without access to its training data, thus jeopardizing intellectual property and exposing sensitive information. Recent methods that use pre-trained diffusion models for data synthesis improve efficiency and performance but rely heavily on manually crafted prompts, limiting automation and scalability, especially for attackers with little expertise. To assess the risks posed by open-source pre-trained models, we propose a more realistic threat model that eliminates the need for prompt design skills or knowledge of class names. In this context, we introduce Stealix, the first approach to perform model stealing without predefined prompts. Stealix uses two open-source pre-trained models to infer the victim model's data distribution, and iteratively refines prompts through a genetic algorithm, progressively improving the precision and diversity of synthetic images. Our experimental results demonstrate that Stealix significantly outperforms other methods, even those with access to class names or fine-grained prompts, while operating under the same query budget. These findings highlight the scalability of our approach and suggest that the risks posed by pre-trained generative models in model stealing may be greater than previously recognized.

Causality Is Key to Understand and Balance Multiple Goals in Trustworthy ML and Foundation Models

Ensuring trustworthiness in machine learning (ML) systems is crucial as they become increasingly embedded in high-stakes domains. This paper advocates for the integration of causal methods into machine learning to navigate the trade-offs among key principles of trustworthy ML, including fairness, privacy, robustness, accuracy, and explainability. While these objectives should ideally be satisfied simultaneously, they are often addressed in isolation, leading to conflicts and suboptimal solutions. Drawing on existing applications of causality in ML that successfully align goals such as fairness and accuracy or privacy and robustness, this paper argues that a causal approach is essential for balancing multiple competing objectives in both trustworthy ML and foundation models. Beyond highlighting these trade-offs, we examine how causality can be practically integrated into ML and foundation models, offering solutions to enhance their reliability and interpretability. Finally, we discuss the challenges, limitations, and opportunities in adopting causal frameworks, paving the way for more accountable and ethically sound AI systems.