Task-oriented Time Series Imputation Evaluation via Generalized Representers

Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these tasks, and often leading to unpredictable negative effects on existing methods, hindering their further application. In response to this situation, existing time series imputation methods mainly focus on restoring sequences based on their data characteristics, while ignoring the performance of the restored sequences in downstream tasks. Considering different requirements of downstream tasks (e.g., forecasting), this paper proposes an efficient downstream task-oriented time series imputation evaluation approach. By combining time series imputation with neural network models used for downstream tasks, the gain of different imputation strategies on downstream tasks is estimated without retraining, and the most favorable imputation value for downstream tasks is given by combining different imputation strategies according to the estimated gain.

Mitigating Time Discretization Challenges with WeatherODE: A Sandwich Physics-Driven Neural ODE for Weather Forecasting

In the field of weather forecasting, traditional models often grapple with discretization errors and time-dependent source discrepancies, which limit their predictive performance. In this paper, we present WeatherODE, a novel one-stage, physics-driven ordinary differential equation (ODE) model designed to enhance weather forecasting accuracy. By leveraging wave equation theory and integrating a time-dependent source model, WeatherODE effectively addresses the challenges associated with time-discretization error and dynamic atmospheric processes. Moreover, we design a CNN-ViT-CNN sandwich structure, facilitating efficient learning dynamics tailored for distinct yet interrelated tasks with varying optimization biases in advection equation estimation. Through rigorous experiments, WeatherODE demonstrates superior performance in both global and regional weather forecasting tasks, outperforming recent state-of-the-art approaches by significant margins of over 40.0\% and 31.8\% in root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/WeatherODE}.

Less is more: Embracing sparsity and interpolation with Esiformer for time series forecasting

Time series forecasting has played a significant role in many practical fields. But time series data generated from real-world applications always exhibits high variance and lots of noise, which makes it difficult to capture the inherent periodic patterns of the data, hurting the prediction accuracy significantly. To address this issue, we propose the Esiformer, which apply interpolation on the original data, decreasing the overall variance of the data and alleviating the influence of noise. What's more, we enhanced the vanilla transformer with a robust Sparse FFN. It can enhance the representation ability of the model effectively, and maintain the excellent robustness, avoiding the risk of overfitting compared with the vanilla implementation. Through evaluations on challenging real-world datasets, our method outperforms leading model PatchTST, reducing MSE by 6.5% and MAE by 5.8% in multivariate time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/yyg1282142265/Esiformer/tree/main.

Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization for Time Series Forecasting under Distribution Shifts

Complex distribution shifts are the main obstacle to achieving accurate long-term time series forecasting. Several efforts have been conducted to capture the distribution characteristics and propose adaptive normalization techniques to alleviate the influence of distribution shifts. However, these methods neglect the intricate distribution dynamics observed from various scales and the evolving functions of distribution dynamics and normalized mapping relationships. To this end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization (EvoMSN) framework to tackle the distribution shift problem. Flexible normalization and denormalization are proposed based on the multi-scale statistics prediction module and adaptive ensembling. An evolving optimization strategy is designed to update the forecasting model and statistics prediction module collaboratively to track the shifting distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of EvoMSN in improving the performance of five mainstream forecasting methods on benchmark datasets and also show its superiority compared to existing advanced normalization and online learning approaches. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/qindalin/EvoMSN.

FuzzCoder: Byte-level Fuzzing Test via Large Language Model

Fuzzing is an important dynamic program analysis technique designed for finding vulnerabilities in complex software. Fuzzing involves presenting a target program with crafted malicious input to cause crashes, buffer overflows, memory errors, and exceptions. Crafting malicious inputs in an efficient manner is a difficult open problem and the best approaches often apply uniform random mutations to pre-existing valid inputs. In this work, we propose to adopt fine-tuned large language models (FuzzCoder) to learn patterns in the input files from successful attacks to guide future fuzzing explorations. Specifically, we develop a framework to leverage the code LLMs to guide the mutation process of inputs in fuzzing. The mutation process is formulated as the sequence-to-sequence modeling, where LLM receives a sequence of bytes and then outputs the mutated byte sequence. FuzzCoder is fine-tuned on the created instruction dataset (Fuzz-Instruct), where the successful fuzzing history is collected from the heuristic fuzzing tool. FuzzCoder can predict mutation locations and strategies locations in input files to trigger abnormal behaviors of the program. Experimental results show that FuzzCoder based on AFL (American Fuzzy Lop) gain significant improvements in terms of effective proportion of mutation (EPM) and number of crashes (NC) for various input formats including ELF, JPG, MP3, and XML.

CURLS: Causal Rule Learning for Subgroups with Significant Treatment Effect

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

APSeg: Auto-Prompt Network for Cross-Domain Few-Shot Semantic Segmentatio

Few-shot semantic segmentation (FSS) endeavors to segment unseen classes with only a few labeled samples. Current FSS methods are commonly built on the assumption that their training and application scenarios share similar domains, and their performances degrade significantly while applied to a distinct domain. To this end, we propose to leverage the cutting-edge foundation model, the Segment Anything Model (SAM), for generalization enhancement. The SAM however performs unsatisfactorily on domains that are distinct from its training data, which primarily comprise natural scene images, and it does not support automatic segmentation of specific semantics due to its interactive prompting mechanism. In our work, we introduce APSeg, a novel auto-prompt network for cross-domain few-shot semantic segmentation (CD-FSS), which is designed to be auto-prompted for guiding cross-domain segmentation. Specifically, we propose a Dual Prototype Anchor Transformation (DPAT) module that fuses pseudo query prototypes extracted based on cycle-consistency with support prototypes, allowing features to be transformed into a more stable domain-agnostic space. Additionally, a Meta Prompt Generator (MPG) module is introduced to automatically generate prompt embeddings, eliminating the need for manual visual prompts. We build an efficient model which can be applied directly to target domains without fine-tuning. Extensive experiments on four cross-domain datasets show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art CD-FSS method by 5.24% and 3.10% in average accuracy on 1-shot and 5-shot settings, respectively.

SLIM: a Scalable Light-weight Root Cause Analysis for Imbalanced Data in Microservice

The newly deployed service -- one kind of change service, could lead to a new type of minority fault. Existing state-of-the-art methods for fault localization rarely consider the imbalanced fault classification in change service. This paper proposes a novel method that utilizes decision rule sets to deal with highly imbalanced data by optimizing the F1 score subject to cardinality constraints. The proposed method greedily generates the rule with maximal marginal gain and uses an efficient minorize-maximization (MM) approach to select rules iteratively, maximizing a non-monotone submodular lower bound. Compared with existing fault localization algorithms, our algorithm can adapt to the imbalanced fault scenario of change service, and provide interpretable fault causes which are easy to understand and verify. Our method can also be deployed in the online training setting, with only about 15% training overhead compared to the current SOTA methods. Empirical studies showcase that our algorithm outperforms existing fault localization algorithms in both accuracy and model interpretability.

Addressing Concept Shift in Online Time Series Forecasting: Detect-then-Adapt

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to tackle the challenge of concept drifting by adjusting forecasting models based on streaming data. While numerous algorithms have been developed, most of them focus on model design and updating. In practice, many of these methods struggle with continuous performance regression in the face of accumulated concept drifts over time. To address this limitation, we present a novel approach, Concept \textbf{D}rift \textbf{D}etection an\textbf{D} \textbf{A}daptation (D3A), that first detects drifting conception and then aggressively adapts the current model to the drifted concepts after the detection for rapid adaption. To best harness the utility of historical data for model adaptation, we propose a data augmentation strategy introducing Gaussian noise into existing training instances. It helps mitigate the data distribution gap, a critical factor contributing to train-test performance inconsistency. The significance of our data augmentation process is verified by our theoretical analysis. Our empirical studies across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of D3A in improving model adaptation capability. Notably, compared to a simple Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) baseline, D3A reduces the average Mean Squared Error (MSE) by $43.9\%$. For the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, the MSE is reduced by $33.3\%$.

Sparse-VQ Transformer: An FFN-Free Framework with Vector Quantization for Enhanced Time Series Forecasting

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.