Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecasting

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Metadata Matters for Time Series: Informative Forecasting with Transformers

Time series forecasting is prevalent in extensive real-world applications, such as financial analysis and energy planning. Previous studies primarily focus on time series modality, endeavoring to capture the intricate variations and dependencies inherent in time series. Beyond numerical time series data, we notice that metadata (e.g.~dataset and variate descriptions) also carries valuable information essential for forecasting, which can be used to identify the application scenario and provide more interpretable knowledge than digit sequences. Inspired by this observation, we propose a Metadata-informed Time Series Transformer (MetaTST), which incorporates multiple levels of context-specific metadata into Transformer forecasting models to enable informative time series forecasting. To tackle the unstructured nature of metadata, MetaTST formalizes them into natural languages by pre-designed templates and leverages large language models (LLMs) to encode these texts into metadata tokens as a supplement to classic series tokens, resulting in an informative embedding. Further, a Transformer encoder is employed to communicate series and metadata tokens, which can extend series representations by metadata information for more accurate forecasting. This design also allows the model to adaptively learn context-specific patterns across various scenarios, which is particularly effective in handling large-scale, diverse-scenario forecasting tasks. Experimentally, MetaTST achieves state-of-the-art compared to advanced time series models and LLM-based methods on widely acknowledged short- and long-term forecasting benchmarks, covering both single-dataset individual and multi-dataset joint training settings.

Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark

Time series, characterized by a sequence of data points arranged in a discrete-time order, are ubiquitous in real-world applications. Different from other modalities, time series present unique challenges due to their complex and dynamic nature, including the entanglement of nonlinear patterns and time-variant trends. Analyzing time series data is of great significance in real-world scenarios and has been widely studied over centuries. Recent years have witnessed remarkable breakthroughs in the time series community, with techniques shifting from traditional statistical methods to advanced deep learning models. In this paper, we delve into the design of deep time series models across various analysis tasks and review the existing literature from two perspectives: basic modules and model architectures. Further, we develop and release Time Series Library (TSLib) as a fair benchmark of deep time series models for diverse analysis tasks, which implements 24 mainstream models, covers 30 datasets from different domains, and supports five prevalent analysis tasks. Based on TSLib, we thoroughly evaluate 12 advanced deep time series models on different tasks. Empirical results indicate that models with specific structures are well-suited for distinct analytical tasks, which offers insights for research and adoption of deep time series models. Code is available at https://github.com/thuml/Time-Series-Library.

RoPINN: Region Optimized Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have been widely applied to solve partial differential equations (PDEs) by enforcing outputs and gradients of deep models to satisfy target equations. Due to the limitation of numerical computation, PINNs are conventionally optimized on finite selected points. However, since PDEs are usually defined on continuous domains, solely optimizing models on scattered points may be insufficient to obtain an accurate solution for the whole domain. To mitigate this inherent deficiency of the default scatter-point optimization, this paper proposes and theoretically studies a new training paradigm as region optimization. Concretely, we propose to extend the optimization process of PINNs from isolated points to their continuous neighborhood regions, which can theoretically decrease the generalization error, especially for hidden high-order constraints of PDEs. A practical training algorithm, Region Optimized PINN (RoPINN), is seamlessly derived from this new paradigm, which is implemented by a straightforward but effective Monte Carlo sampling method. By calibrating the sampling process into trust regions, RoPINN finely balances sampling efficiency and generalization error. Experimentally, RoPINN consistently boosts the performance of diverse PINNs on a wide range of PDEs without extra backpropagation or gradient calculation.

CogDPM: Diffusion Probabilistic Models via Cognitive Predictive Coding

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Supercompiler Code Optimization with Zero-Shot Reinforcement Learning

Effective code optimization in compilers plays a central role in computer and software engineering. While compilers can be made to automatically search the optimization space without the need for user interventions, this is not a standard practice since the search is slow and cumbersome. Here we present CodeZero, an artificial intelligence agent trained extensively on large data to produce effective optimization strategies instantly for each program in a single trial of the agent. To overcome the huge range of possible test programs, we prepare a large dataset of training programs that emphasize quality, naturalness, and diversity. To tackle the vast space of possible optimizations, we adapt deep reinforcement learning to train the agent in a sample-efficient manner through interacting with a world model of the compiler environment. Evaluation on both benchmark suites and production-level code optimization problems demonstrates our agent's supercompiler performances and zero-shot generalization abilities, outperforming built-in optimization options designed by compiler experts. Our methodology kindles the great potential of artificial intelligence for engineering and paves the way for scaling machine learning techniques in the realm of code optimization.

Instruction Multi-Constraint Molecular Generation Using a Teacher-Student Large Language Model

While various models and computational tools have been proposed for structure and property analysis of molecules, generating molecules that conform to all desired structures and properties remains a challenge. Here, we introduce a multi-constraint molecular generation large language model, TSMMG, which, akin to a student, incorporates knowledge from various small models and tools, namely, the 'teachers'. To train TSMMG, we construct a large set of text-molecule pairs by extracting molecular knowledge from these 'teachers', enabling it to generate novel molecules that conform to the descriptions through various text prompts. We experimentally show that TSMMG remarkably performs in generating molecules meeting complex, natural language-described property requirements across two-, three-, and four-constraint tasks, with an average molecular validity of over 99% and success ratio of 88.08%, 65.27%, and 61.44%, respectively. The model also exhibits adaptability through zero-shot testing, creating molecules that satisfy combinations of properties that have not been encountered. It can comprehend text inputs with various language styles, extending beyond the confines of outlined prompts, as confirmed through empirical validation. Additionally, the knowledge distillation feature of TSMMG contributes to the continuous enhancement of small models, while the innovative approach to dataset construction effectively addresses the issues of data scarcity and quality, which positions TSMMG as a promising tool in the domains of drug discovery and materials science. Code is available at https://github.com/HHW-zhou/TSMMG.

depyf: Open the Opaque Box of PyTorch Compiler for Machine Learning Researchers

PyTorch \texttt{2.x} introduces a compiler designed to accelerate deep learning programs. However, for machine learning researchers, adapting to the PyTorch compiler to full potential can be challenging. The compiler operates at the Python bytecode level, making it appear as an opaque box. To address this, we introduce \texttt{depyf}, a tool designed to demystify the inner workings of the PyTorch compiler. \texttt{depyf} decompiles bytecode generated by PyTorch back into equivalent source code, and establishes connections between in-memory code objects and their on-disk source code counterparts. This feature enables users to step through the source code line by line using debuggers, thus enhancing their understanding of the underlying processes. Notably, \texttt{depyf} is non-intrusive and user-friendly, primarily relying on two convenient context managers for its core functionality. The project is \href{https://github.com/thuml/depyf}{ openly available} and is recognized as a \href{https://pytorch.org/ecosystem/}{PyTorch ecosystem project}.

TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

Recent studies have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous series can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike prior well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting that either treats all the variables equally or overlooks exogenous information, this paper focuses on a practical setting, which is time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel framework, TimeXer, to utilize external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With a deftly designed embedding layer, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer architecture with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are employed. Moreover, a global endogenous variate token is adopted to effectively bridge the exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer significantly improves time series forecasting with exogenous variables and achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance in twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks.

Timer: Transformers for Time Series Analysis at Scale

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.