Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecasting

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Metadata Matters for Time Series: Informative Forecasting with Transformers

Time series forecasting is prevalent in extensive real-world applications, such as financial analysis and energy planning. Previous studies primarily focus on time series modality, endeavoring to capture the intricate variations and dependencies inherent in time series. Beyond numerical time series data, we notice that metadata (e.g.~dataset and variate descriptions) also carries valuable information essential for forecasting, which can be used to identify the application scenario and provide more interpretable knowledge than digit sequences. Inspired by this observation, we propose a Metadata-informed Time Series Transformer (MetaTST), which incorporates multiple levels of context-specific metadata into Transformer forecasting models to enable informative time series forecasting. To tackle the unstructured nature of metadata, MetaTST formalizes them into natural languages by pre-designed templates and leverages large language models (LLMs) to encode these texts into metadata tokens as a supplement to classic series tokens, resulting in an informative embedding. Further, a Transformer encoder is employed to communicate series and metadata tokens, which can extend series representations by metadata information for more accurate forecasting. This design also allows the model to adaptively learn context-specific patterns across various scenarios, which is particularly effective in handling large-scale, diverse-scenario forecasting tasks. Experimentally, MetaTST achieves state-of-the-art compared to advanced time series models and LLM-based methods on widely acknowledged short- and long-term forecasting benchmarks, covering both single-dataset individual and multi-dataset joint training settings.

Long-Sequence Recommendation Models Need Decoupled Embeddings

Lifelong user behavior sequences, comprising up to tens of thousands of history behaviors, are crucial for capturing user interests and predicting user responses in modern recommendation systems. A two-stage paradigm is typically adopted to handle these long sequences: a few relevant behaviors are first searched from the original long sequences via an attention mechanism in the first stage and then aggregated with the target item to construct a discriminative representation for prediction in the second stage. In this work, we identify and characterize, for the first time, a neglected deficiency in existing long-sequence recommendation models: a single set of embeddings struggles with learning both attention and representation, leading to interference between these two processes. Initial attempts to address this issue using linear projections -- a technique borrowed from language processing -- proved ineffective, shedding light on the unique challenges of recommendation models. To overcome this, we propose the Decoupled Attention and Representation Embeddings (DARE) model, where two distinct embedding tables are initialized and learned separately to fully decouple attention and representation. Extensive experiments and analysis demonstrate that DARE provides more accurate search of correlated behaviors and outperforms baselines with AUC gains up to 0.9% on public datasets and notable online system improvements. Furthermore, decoupling embedding spaces allows us to reduce the attention embedding dimension and accelerate the search procedure by 50% without significant performance impact, enabling more efficient, high-performance online serving.

Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark

Time series, characterized by a sequence of data points arranged in a discrete-time order, are ubiquitous in real-world applications. Different from other modalities, time series present unique challenges due to their complex and dynamic nature, including the entanglement of nonlinear patterns and time-variant trends. Analyzing time series data is of great significance in real-world scenarios and has been widely studied over centuries. Recent years have witnessed remarkable breakthroughs in the time series community, with techniques shifting from traditional statistical methods to advanced deep learning models. In this paper, we delve into the design of deep time series models across various analysis tasks and review the existing literature from two perspectives: basic modules and model architectures. Further, we develop and release Time Series Library (TSLib) as a fair benchmark of deep time series models for diverse analysis tasks, which implements 24 mainstream models, covers 30 datasets from different domains, and supports five prevalent analysis tasks. Based on TSLib, we thoroughly evaluate 12 advanced deep time series models on different tasks. Empirical results indicate that models with specific structures are well-suited for distinct analytical tasks, which offers insights for research and adoption of deep time series models. Code is available at https://github.com/thuml/Time-Series-Library.

Diffusion Tuning: Transferring Diffusion Models via Chain of Forgetting

Diffusion models have significantly advanced the field of generative modeling. However, training a diffusion model is computationally expensive, creating a pressing need to adapt off-the-shelf diffusion models for downstream generation tasks. Current fine-tuning methods focus on parameter-efficient transfer learning but overlook the fundamental transfer characteristics of diffusion models. In this paper, we investigate the transferability of diffusion models and observe a monotonous chain of forgetting trend of transferability along the reverse process. Based on this observation and novel theoretical insights, we present Diff-Tuning, a frustratingly simple transfer approach that leverages the chain of forgetting tendency. Diff-Tuning encourages the fine-tuned model to retain the pre-trained knowledge at the end of the denoising chain close to the generated data while discarding the other noise side. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate Diff-Tuning, including the transfer of pre-trained Diffusion Transformer models to eight downstream generations and the adaptation of Stable Diffusion to five control conditions with ControlNet. Diff-Tuning achieves a 26% improvement over standard fine-tuning and enhances the convergence speed of ControlNet by 24%. Notably, parameter-efficient transfer learning techniques for diffusion models can also benefit from Diff-Tuning.

Unisolver: PDE-Conditional Transformers Are Universal PDE Solvers

Deep models have recently emerged as a promising tool to solve partial differential equations (PDEs), known as neural PDE solvers. While neural solvers trained from either simulation data or physics-informed loss can solve the PDEs reasonably well, they are mainly restricted to a specific set of PDEs, e.g. a certain equation or a finite set of coefficients. This bottleneck limits the generalizability of neural solvers, which is widely recognized as its major advantage over numerical solvers. In this paper, we present the Universal PDE solver (Unisolver) capable of solving a wide scope of PDEs by leveraging a Transformer pre-trained on diverse data and conditioned on diverse PDEs. Instead of simply scaling up data and parameters, Unisolver stems from the theoretical analysis of the PDE-solving process. Our key finding is that a PDE solution is fundamentally under the control of a series of PDE components, e.g. equation symbols, coefficients, and initial and boundary conditions. Inspired by the mathematical structure of PDEs, we define a complete set of PDE components and correspondingly embed them as domain-wise (e.g. equation symbols) and point-wise (e.g. boundaries) conditions for Transformer PDE solvers. Integrating physical insights with recent Transformer advances, Unisolver achieves consistent state-of-the-art results on three challenging large-scale benchmarks, showing impressive gains and endowing favorable generalizability and scalability.

iVideoGPT: Interactive VideoGPTs are Scalable World Models

World models empower model-based agents to interactively explore, reason, and plan within imagined environments for real-world decision-making. However, the high demand for interactivity poses challenges in harnessing recent advancements in video generative models for developing world models at scale. This work introduces Interactive VideoGPT (iVideoGPT), a scalable autoregressive transformer framework that integrates multimodal signals--visual observations, actions, and rewards--into a sequence of tokens, facilitating an interactive experience of agents via next-token prediction. iVideoGPT features a novel compressive tokenization technique that efficiently discretizes high-dimensional visual observations. Leveraging its scalable architecture, we are able to pre-train iVideoGPT on millions of human and robotic manipulation trajectories, establishing a versatile foundation that is adaptable to serve as interactive world models for a wide range of downstream tasks. These include action-conditioned video prediction, visual planning, and model-based reinforcement learning, where iVideoGPT achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods. Our work advances the development of interactive general world models, bridging the gap between generative video models and practical model-based reinforcement learning applications.

RoPINN: Region Optimized Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have been widely applied to solve partial differential equations (PDEs) by enforcing outputs and gradients of deep models to satisfy target equations. Due to the limitation of numerical computation, PINNs are conventionally optimized on finite selected points. However, since PDEs are usually defined on continuous domains, solely optimizing models on scattered points may be insufficient to obtain an accurate solution for the whole domain. To mitigate this inherent deficiency of the default scatter-point optimization, this paper proposes and theoretically studies a new training paradigm as region optimization. Concretely, we propose to extend the optimization process of PINNs from isolated points to their continuous neighborhood regions, which can theoretically decrease the generalization error, especially for hidden high-order constraints of PDEs. A practical training algorithm, Region Optimized PINN (RoPINN), is seamlessly derived from this new paradigm, which is implemented by a straightforward but effective Monte Carlo sampling method. By calibrating the sampling process into trust regions, RoPINN finely balances sampling efficiency and generalization error. Experimentally, RoPINN consistently boosts the performance of diverse PINNs on a wide range of PDEs without extra backpropagation or gradient calculation.

CogDPM: Diffusion Probabilistic Models via Cognitive Predictive Coding

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Supercompiler Code Optimization with Zero-Shot Reinforcement Learning

Effective code optimization in compilers plays a central role in computer and software engineering. While compilers can be made to automatically search the optimization space without the need for user interventions, this is not a standard practice since the search is slow and cumbersome. Here we present CodeZero, an artificial intelligence agent trained extensively on large data to produce effective optimization strategies instantly for each program in a single trial of the agent. To overcome the huge range of possible test programs, we prepare a large dataset of training programs that emphasize quality, naturalness, and diversity. To tackle the vast space of possible optimizations, we adapt deep reinforcement learning to train the agent in a sample-efficient manner through interacting with a world model of the compiler environment. Evaluation on both benchmark suites and production-level code optimization problems demonstrates our agent's supercompiler performances and zero-shot generalization abilities, outperforming built-in optimization options designed by compiler experts. Our methodology kindles the great potential of artificial intelligence for engineering and paves the way for scaling machine learning techniques in the realm of code optimization.