Forecasting Future International Events: A Reliable Dataset for Text-Based Event Modeling

Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this task are often limited in quality, hindering the progress of related research. In this paper, we introduce WORLDREP (WORLD Relationship and Event Prediction), a novel dataset designed to address these limitations by leveraging the advanced reasoning capabilities of large-language models (LLMs). Our dataset features high-quality scoring labels generated through advanced prompt modeling and rigorously validated by domain experts in political science. We showcase the quality and utility of WORLDREP for real-world event prediction tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness through extensive experiments and analysis. Furthermore, we publicly release our dataset along with the full automation source code for data collection, labeling, and benchmarking, aiming to support and advance research in text-based event prediction.

Single Ground Truth Is Not Enough: Add Linguistic Variability to Aspect-based Sentiment Analysis Evaluation

Aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) is the challenging task of extracting sentiment along with its corresponding aspects and opinions from human language. Due to the inherent variability of natural language, aspect and opinion terms can be expressed in various surface forms, making their accurate identification complex. Current evaluation methods for this task often restrict answers to a single ground truth, penalizing semantically equivalent predictions that differ in surface form. To address this limitation, we propose a novel, fully automated pipeline that augments existing test sets with alternative valid responses for aspect and opinion terms. This approach enables a fairer assessment of language models by accommodating linguistic diversity, resulting in higher human agreement than single-answer test sets (up to 10%p improvement in Kendall's Tau score). Our experimental results demonstrate that Large Language Models (LLMs) show substantial performance improvements over T5 models when evaluated using our augmented test set, suggesting that LLMs' capabilities in ABSA tasks may have been underestimated. This work contributes to a more comprehensive evaluation framework for ABSA, potentially leading to more accurate assessments of model performance in information extraction tasks, particularly those involving span extraction.

Towards Predicting Temporal Changes in a Patient's Chest X-ray Images based on Electronic Health Records

Chest X-ray imaging (CXR) is an important diagnostic tool used in hospitals to assess patient conditions and monitor changes over time. Generative models, specifically diffusion-based models, have shown promise in generating realistic synthetic X-rays. However, these models mainly focus on conditional generation using single-time-point data, i.e., typically CXRs taken at a specific time with their corresponding reports, limiting their clinical utility, particularly for capturing temporal changes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel framework, EHRXDiff, which predicts future CXR images by integrating previous CXRs with subsequent medical events, e.g., prescriptions, lab measures, etc. Our framework dynamically tracks and predicts disease progression based on a latent diffusion model, conditioned on the previous CXR image and a history of medical events. We comprehensively evaluate the performance of our framework across three key aspects, including clinical consistency, demographic consistency, and visual realism. We demonstrate that our framework generates high-quality, realistic future images that capture potential temporal changes, suggesting its potential for further development as a clinical simulation tool. This could offer valuable insights for patient monitoring and treatment planning in the medical field.

Time is Not Enough: Time-Frequency based Explanation for Time-Series Black-Box Models

Despite the massive attention given to time-series explanations due to their extensive applications, a notable limitation in existing approaches is their primary reliance on the time-domain. This overlooks the inherent characteristic of time-series data containing both time and frequency features. In this work, we present Spectral eXplanation (SpectralX), an XAI framework that provides time-frequency explanations for time-series black-box classifiers. This easily adaptable framework enables users to "plug-in" various perturbation-based XAI methods for any pre-trained time-series classification models to assess their impact on the explanation quality without having to modify the framework architecture. Additionally, we introduce Feature Importance Approximations (FIA), a new perturbation-based XAI method. These methods consist of feature insertion, deletion, and combination techniques to enhance computational efficiency and class-specific explanations in time-series classification tasks. We conduct extensive experiments in the generated synthetic dataset and various UCR Time-Series datasets to first compare the explanation performance of FIA and other existing perturbation-based XAI methods in both time-domain and time-frequency domain, and then show the superiority of our FIA in the time-frequency domain with the SpectralX framework. Finally, we conduct a user study to confirm the practicality of our FIA in SpectralX framework for class-specific time-frequency based time-series explanations. The source code is available in https://github.com/gustmd0121/Time_is_not_Enough

EHRCon: Dataset for Checking Consistency between Unstructured Notes and Structured Tables in Electronic Health Records

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are integral for storing comprehensive patient medical records, combining structured data (e.g., medications) with detailed clinical notes (e.g., physician notes). These elements are essential for straightforward data retrieval and provide deep, contextual insights into patient care. However, they often suffer from discrepancies due to unintuitive EHR system designs and human errors, posing serious risks to patient safety. To address this, we developed EHRCon, a new dataset and task specifically designed to ensure data consistency between structured tables and unstructured notes in EHRs. EHRCon was crafted in collaboration with healthcare professionals using the MIMIC-III EHR dataset, and includes manual annotations of 3,943 entities across 105 clinical notes checked against database entries for consistency. EHRCon has two versions, one using the original MIMIC-III schema, and another using the OMOP CDM schema, in order to increase its applicability and generalizability. Furthermore, leveraging the capabilities of large language models, we introduce CheckEHR, a novel framework for verifying the consistency between clinical notes and database tables. CheckEHR utilizes an eight-stage process and shows promising results in both few-shot and zero-shot settings. The code is available at https://github.com/dustn1259/EHRCon.

DialSim: A Real-Time Simulator for Evaluating Long-Term Dialogue Understanding of Conversational Agents

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced the capabilities of conversational agents, making them applicable to various fields (e.g., education). Despite their progress, the evaluation of the agents often overlooks the complexities of real-world conversations, such as real-time interactions, multi-party dialogues, and extended contextual dependencies. To bridge this gap, we introduce DialSim, a real-time dialogue simulator. In this simulator, an agent is assigned the role of a character from popular TV shows, requiring it to respond to spontaneous questions using past dialogue information and to distinguish between known and unknown information. Key features of DialSim include evaluating the agent's ability to respond within a reasonable time limit, handling long-term multi-party dialogues, and managing adversarial settings (e.g., swap character names) to challenge the agent's reliance on pre-trained knowledge. We utilized this simulator to evaluate the latest conversational agents and analyze their limitations. Our experiments highlight both the strengths and weaknesses of these agents, providing valuable insights for future improvements in the field of conversational AI. DialSim is available at https://github.com/jiho283/Simulator.

EHR-SeqSQL : A Sequential Text-to-SQL Dataset For Interactively Exploring Electronic Health Records

In this paper, we introduce EHR-SeqSQL, a novel sequential text-to-SQL dataset for Electronic Health Record (EHR) databases. EHR-SeqSQL is designed to address critical yet underexplored aspects in text-to-SQL parsing: interactivity, compositionality, and efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, EHR-SeqSQL is not only the largest but also the first medical text-to-SQL dataset benchmark to include sequential and contextual questions. We provide a data split and the new test set designed to assess compositional generalization ability. Our experiments demonstrate the superiority of a multi-turn approach over a single-turn approach in learning compositionality. Additionally, our dataset integrates specially crafted tokens into SQL queries to improve execution efficiency. With EHR-SeqSQL, we aim to bridge the gap between practical needs and academic research in the text-to-SQL domain.

Overview of the EHRSQL 2024 Shared Task on Reliable Text-to-SQL Modeling on Electronic Health Records

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are relational databases that store the entire medical histories of patients within hospitals. They record numerous aspects of patients' medical care, from hospital admission and diagnosis to treatment and discharge. While EHRs are vital sources of clinical data, exploring them beyond a predefined set of queries requires skills in query languages like SQL. To make information retrieval more accessible, one strategy is to build a question-answering system, possibly leveraging text-to-SQL models that can automatically translate natural language questions into corresponding SQL queries and use these queries to retrieve the answers. The EHRSQL 2024 shared task aims to advance and promote research in developing a question-answering system for EHRs using text-to-SQL modeling, capable of reliably providing requested answers to various healthcare professionals to improve their clinical work processes and satisfy their needs. Among more than 100 participants who applied to the shared task, eight teams completed the entire shared task processes and demonstrated a wide range of methods to effectively solve this task. In this paper, we describe the task of reliable text-to-SQL modeling, the dataset, and the methods and results of the participants. We hope this shared task will spur further research and insights into developing reliable question-answering systems for EHRs.

Towards Unbiased Evaluation of Detecting Unanswerable Questions in EHRSQL

Incorporating unanswerable questions into EHR QA systems is crucial for testing the trustworthiness of a system, as providing non-existent responses can mislead doctors in their diagnoses. The EHRSQL dataset stands out as a promising benchmark because it is the only dataset that incorporates unanswerable questions in the EHR QA system alongside practical questions. However, in this work, we identify a data bias in these unanswerable questions; they can often be discerned simply by filtering with specific N-gram patterns. Such biases jeopardize the authenticity and reliability of QA system evaluations. To tackle this problem, we propose a simple debiasing method of adjusting the split between the validation and test sets to neutralize the undue influence of N-gram filtering. By experimenting on the MIMIC-III dataset, we demonstrate both the existing data bias in EHRSQL and the effectiveness of our data split strategy in mitigating this bias.

EHRFL: Federated Learning Framework for Heterogeneous EHRs and Precision-guided Selection of Participating Clients

In this study, we provide solutions to two practical yet overlooked scenarios in federated learning for electronic health records (EHRs): firstly, we introduce EHRFL, a framework that facilitates federated learning across healthcare institutions with distinct medical coding systems and database schemas using text-based linearization of EHRs. Secondly, we focus on a scenario where a single healthcare institution initiates federated learning to build a model tailored for itself, in which the number of clients must be optimized in order to reduce expenses incurred by the host. For selecting participating clients, we present a novel precision-based method, leveraging data latents to identify suitable participants for the institution. Our empirical results show that EHRFL effectively enables federated learning across hospitals with different EHR systems. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the efficacy of our precision-based method in selecting reduced number of participating clients without compromising model performance, resulting in lower operational costs when constructing institution-specific models. We believe this work lays a foundation for the broader adoption of federated learning on EHRs.