Adaptive Nonparametric Perturbations of Parametric Bayesian Models

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for scientific data analysis. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we study nonparametrically perturbed parametric (NPP) Bayesian models, in which a parametric Bayesian model is relaxed via a distortion of its likelihood. We analyze the properties of NPP models when the target of inference is the true data distribution or some functional of it, such as in causal inference. We show that NPP models can offer the robustness of nonparametric models while retaining the data efficiency of parametric models, achieving fast convergence when the parametric model is close to true. To efficiently analyze data with an NPP model, we develop a generalized Bayes procedure to approximate its posterior. We demonstrate our method by estimating causal effects of gene expression from single cell RNA sequencing data. NPP modeling offers an efficient approach to robust Bayesian inference and can be used to robustify any parametric Bayesian model.

Effect of Adaptation Rate and Cost Display in a Human-AI Interaction Game

As interactions between humans and AI become more prevalent, it is critical to have better predictors of human behavior in these interactions. We investigated how changes in the AI's adaptive algorithm impact behavior predictions in two-player continuous games. In our experiments, the AI adapted its actions using a gradient descent algorithm under different adaptation rates while human participants were provided cost feedback. The cost feedback was provided by one of two types of visual displays: (a) cost at the current joint action vector, or (b) cost in a local neighborhood of the current joint action vector. Our results demonstrate that AI adaptation rate can significantly affect human behavior, having the ability to shift the outcome between two game theoretic equilibrium. We observed that slow adaptation rates shift the outcome towards the Nash equilibrium, while fast rates shift the outcome towards the human-led Stackelberg equilibrium. The addition of localized cost information had the effect of shifting outcomes towards Nash, compared to the outcomes from cost information at only the current joint action vector. Future work will investigate other effects that influence the convergence of gradient descent games.

Target conversation extraction: Source separation using turn-taking dynamics

Extracting the speech of participants in a conversation amidst interfering speakers and noise presents a challenging problem. In this paper, we introduce the novel task of target conversation extraction, where the goal is to extract the audio of a target conversation based on the speaker embedding of one of its participants. To accomplish this, we propose leveraging temporal patterns inherent in human conversations, particularly turn-taking dynamics, which uniquely characterize speakers engaged in conversation and distinguish them from interfering speakers and noise. Using neural networks, we show the feasibility of our approach on English and Mandarin conversation datasets. In the presence of interfering speakers, our results show an 8.19 dB improvement in signal-to-noise ratio for 2-speaker conversations and a 7.92 dB improvement for 2-4-speaker conversations. Code, dataset available at https://github.com/chentuochao/Target-Conversation-Extraction.

MMEvalPro: Calibrating Multimodal Benchmarks Towards Trustworthy and Efficient Evaluation

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) exhibit impressive cross-modal understanding and reasoning abilities, often assessed through multiple-choice questions (MCQs) that include an image, a question, and several options. However, many benchmarks used for such evaluations suffer from systematic biases. Remarkably, Large Language Models (LLMs) without any visual perception capabilities achieve non-trivial performance, undermining the credibility of these evaluations. To address this issue while maintaining the efficiency of MCQ evaluations, we propose MMEvalPro, a benchmark designed to avoid Type-I errors through a trilogy evaluation pipeline and more rigorous metrics. For each original question from existing benchmarks, human annotators augment it by creating one perception question and one knowledge anchor question through a meticulous annotation process. MMEvalPro comprises $2,138$ question triplets, totaling $6,414$ distinct questions. Two-thirds of these questions are manually labeled by human experts, while the rest are sourced from existing benchmarks (MMMU, ScienceQA, and MathVista). Compared with the existing benchmarks, our experiments with the latest LLMs and LMMs demonstrate that MMEvalPro is more challenging (the best LMM lags behind human performance by $31.73\%$, compared to an average gap of $8.03\%$ in previous benchmarks) and more trustworthy (the best LLM trails the best LMM by $23.09\%$, whereas the gap for previous benchmarks is just $14.64\%$). Our in-depth analysis explains the reason for the large performance gap and justifies the trustworthiness of evaluation, underscoring its significant potential for advancing future research.

Extending Mean-Field Variational Inference via Entropic Regularization: Theory and Computation

Variational inference (VI) has emerged as a popular method for approximate inference for high-dimensional Bayesian models. In this paper, we propose a novel VI method that extends the naive mean field via entropic regularization, referred to as $\Xi$-variational inference ($\Xi$-VI). $\Xi$-VI has a close connection to the entropic optimal transport problem and benefits from the computationally efficient Sinkhorn algorithm. We show that $\Xi$-variational posteriors effectively recover the true posterior dependency, where the dependence is downweighted by the regularization parameter. We analyze the role of dimensionality of the parameter space on the accuracy of $\Xi$-variational approximation and how it affects computational considerations, providing a rough characterization of the statistical-computational trade-off in $\Xi$-VI. We also investigate the frequentist properties of $\Xi$-VI and establish results on consistency, asymptotic normality, high-dimensional asymptotics, and algorithmic stability. We provide sufficient criteria for achieving polynomial-time approximate inference using the method. Finally, we demonstrate the practical advantage of $\Xi$-VI over mean-field variational inference on simulated and real data.

Frequentist Guarantees of Distributed (Non)-Bayesian Inference

Motivated by the need to analyze large, decentralized datasets, distributed Bayesian inference has become a critical research area across multiple fields, including statistics, electrical engineering, and economics. This paper establishes Frequentist properties, such as posterior consistency, asymptotic normality, and posterior contraction rates, for the distributed (non-)Bayes Inference problem among agents connected via a communication network. Our results show that, under appropriate assumptions on the communication graph, distributed Bayesian inference retains parametric efficiency while enhancing robustness in uncertainty quantification. We also explore the trade-off between statistical efficiency and communication efficiency by examining how the design and size of the communication graph impact the posterior contraction rate. Furthermore, We extend our analysis to time-varying graphs and apply our results to exponential family models, distributed logistic regression, and decentralized detection models.

Monte Carlo inference for semiparametric Bayesian regression

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations or nonparametric representations that are computationally inefficient and cumbersome for implementation and theoretical analysis, which limits their usability in practice. This paper introduces a simple, general, and efficient strategy for joint posterior inference of an unknown transformation and all regression model parameters. The proposed approach directly targets the posterior distribution of the transformation by linking it with the marginal distributions of the independent and dependent variables, and then deploys a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap. Crucially, this approach delivers (1) joint posterior consistency under general conditions, including multiple model misspecifications, and (2) efficient Monte Carlo (not Markov chain Monte Carlo) inference for the transformation and all parameters for important special cases. These tools apply across a variety of data domains, including real-valued, integer-valued, compactly-supported, and positive data. Simulation studies and an empirical application demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this strategy for semiparametric Bayesian analysis with linear models, quantile regression, and Gaussian processes.

M-EMBER: Tackling Long-Horizon Mobile Manipulation via Factorized Domain Transfer

In this paper, we propose a method to create visuomotor mobile manipulation solutions for long-horizon activities. We propose to leverage the recent advances in simulation to train visual solutions for mobile manipulation. While previous works have shown success applying this procedure to autonomous visual navigation and stationary manipulation, applying it to long-horizon visuomotor mobile manipulation is still an open challenge that demands both perceptual and compositional generalization of multiple skills. In this work, we develop Mobile-EMBER, or M-EMBER, a factorized method that decomposes a long-horizon mobile manipulation activity into a repertoire of primitive visual skills, reinforcement-learns each skill, and composes these skills to a long-horizon mobile manipulation activity. On a mobile manipulation robot, we find that M-EMBER completes a long-horizon mobile manipulation activity, cleaning_kitchen, achieving a 53% success rate. This requires successfully planning and executing five factorized, learned visual skills.

Example-Driven Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Solving Long-Horizon Visuomotor Tasks

In this paper, we study the problem of learning a repertoire of low-level skills from raw images that can be sequenced to complete long-horizon visuomotor tasks. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising approach for acquiring short-horizon skills autonomously. However, the focus of RL algorithms has largely been on the success of those individual skills, more so than learning and grounding a large repertoire of skills that can be sequenced to complete extended multi-stage tasks. The latter demands robustness and persistence, as errors in skills can compound over time, and may require the robot to have a number of primitive skills in its repertoire, rather than just one. To this end, we introduce EMBR, a model-based RL method for learning primitive skills that are suitable for completing long-horizon visuomotor tasks. EMBR learns and plans using a learned model, critic, and success classifier, where the success classifier serves both as a reward function for RL and as a grounding mechanism to continuously detect if the robot should retry a skill when unsuccessful or under perturbations. Further, the learned model is task-agnostic and trained using data from all skills, enabling the robot to efficiently learn a number of distinct primitives. These visuomotor primitive skills and their associated pre- and post-conditions can then be directly combined with off-the-shelf symbolic planners to complete long-horizon tasks. On a Franka Emika robot arm, we find that EMBR enables the robot to complete three long-horizon visuomotor tasks at 85% success rate, such as organizing an office desk, a file cabinet, and drawers, which require sequencing up to 12 skills, involve 14 unique learned primitives, and demand generalization to novel objects.

On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.