Geo-Aware Models for Stream Temperature Prediction across Different Spatial Regions and Scales

Understanding environmental ecosystems is vital for the sustainable management of our planet. However,existing physics-based and data-driven models often fail to generalize to varying spatial regions and scales due to the inherent data heterogeneity presented in real environmental ecosystems. This generalization issue is further exacerbated by the limited observation samples available for model training. To address these issues, we propose Geo-STARS, a geo-aware spatio-temporal modeling framework for predicting stream water temperature across different watersheds and spatial scales. The major innovation of Geo-STARS is the introduction of geo-aware embedding, which leverages geographic information to explicitly capture shared principles and patterns across spatial regions and scales. We further integrate the geo-aware embedding into a gated spatio-temporal graph neural network. This design enables the model to learn complex spatial and temporal patterns guided by geographic and hydrological context, even with sparse or no observational data. We evaluate Geo-STARS's efficacy in predicting stream water temperature, which is a master factor for water quality. Using real-world datasets spanning 37 years across multiple watersheds along the eastern coast of the United States, Geo-STARS demonstrates its superior generalization performance across both regions and scales, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. These results highlight the promise of Geo-STARS for scalable, data-efficient environmental monitoring and decision-making.

Learning to Retrieve for Environmental Knowledge Discovery: An Augmentation-Adaptive Self-Supervised Learning Framework

The discovery of environmental knowledge depends on labeled task-specific data, but is often constrained by the high cost of data collection. Existing machine learning approaches usually struggle to generalize in data-sparse or atypical conditions. To this end, we propose an Augmentation-Adaptive Self-Supervised Learning (A$^2$SL) framework, which retrieves relevant observational samples to enhance modeling of the target ecosystem. Specifically, we introduce a multi-level pairwise learning loss to train a scenario encoder that captures varying degrees of similarity among scenarios. These learned similarities drive a retrieval mechanism that supplements a target scenario with relevant data from different locations or time periods. Furthermore, to better handle variable scenarios, particularly under atypical or extreme conditions where traditional models struggle, we design an augmentation-adaptive mechanism that selectively enhances these scenarios through targeted data augmentation. Using freshwater ecosystems as a case study, we evaluate A$^2$SL in modeling water temperature and dissolved oxygen dynamics in real-world lakes. Experimental results show that A$^2$SL significantly improves predictive accuracy and enhances robustness in data-scarce and atypical scenarios. Although this study focuses on freshwater ecosystems, the A$^2$SL framework offers a broadly applicable solution in various scientific domains.

Bridging the Last Mile of Prediction: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting with Conditional Guided Flow Matching

Diffusion models, a type of generative model, have shown promise in time series forecasting. But they face limitations like rigid source distributions and limited sampling paths, which hinder their performance. Flow matching offers faster generation, higher-quality outputs, and greater flexibility, while also possessing the ability to utilize valuable information from the prediction errors of prior models, which were previously inaccessible yet critically important. To address these challenges and fully unlock the untapped potential of flow matching, we propose Conditional Guided Flow Matching (CGFM). CGFM extends flow matching by incorporating the outputs of an auxiliary model, enabling a previously unattainable capability in the field: learning from the errors of the auxiliary model. For time series forecasting tasks, it integrates historical data as conditions and guidance, constructs two-sided conditional probability paths, and uses a general affine path to expand the space of probability paths, ultimately leading to improved predictions. Extensive experiments show that CGFM consistently enhances and outperforms state-of-the-art models, highlighting its effectiveness in advancing forecasting methods.

How to Unlock Time Series Editing? Diffusion-Driven Approach with Multi-Grained Control

Recent advances in time series generation have shown promise, yet controlling properties in generated sequences remains challenging. Time Series Editing (TSE) - making precise modifications while preserving temporal coherence - consider both point-level constraints and segment-level controls that current methods struggle to provide. We introduce the CocktailEdit framework to enable simultaneous, flexible control across different types of constraints. This framework combines two key mechanisms: a confidence-weighted anchor control for point-wise constraints and a classifier-based control for managing statistical properties such as sums and averages over segments. Our methods achieve precise local control during the denoising inference stage while maintaining temporal coherence and integrating seamlessly, with any conditionally trained diffusion-based time series models. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and models demonstrate its effectiveness. Our work bridges the gap between pure generative modeling and real-world time series editing needs, offering a flexible solution for human-in-the-loop time series generation and editing. The code and demo are provided for validation.

LLM-based Evaluation Policy Extraction for Ecological Modeling

Evaluating ecological time series is critical for benchmarking model performance in many important applications, including predicting greenhouse gas fluxes, capturing carbon-nitrogen dynamics, and monitoring hydrological cycles. Traditional numerical metrics (e.g., R-squared, root mean square error) have been widely used to quantify the similarity between modeled and observed ecosystem variables, but they often fail to capture domain-specific temporal patterns critical to ecological processes. As a result, these methods are often accompanied by expert visual inspection, which requires substantial human labor and limits the applicability to large-scale evaluation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework that integrates metric learning with large language model (LLM)-based natural language policy extraction to develop interpretable evaluation criteria. The proposed method processes pairwise annotations and implements a policy optimization mechanism to generate and combine different assessment metrics. The results obtained on multiple datasets for evaluating the predictions of crop gross primary production and carbon dioxide flux have confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed method in capturing target assessment preferences, including both synthetically generated and expert-annotated model comparisons. The proposed framework bridges the gap between numerical metrics and expert knowledge while providing interpretable evaluation policies that accommodate the diverse needs of different ecosystem modeling studies.

Multi-Scale Graph Learning for Anti-Sparse Downscaling

Water temperature can vary substantially even across short distances within the same sub-watershed. Accurate prediction of stream water temperature at fine spatial resolutions (i.e., fine scales, $\leq$ 1 km) enables precise interventions to maintain water quality and protect aquatic habitats. Although spatiotemporal models have made substantial progress in spatially coarse time series modeling, challenges persist in predicting at fine spatial scales due to the lack of data at that scale.To address the problem of insufficient fine-scale data, we propose a Multi-Scale Graph Learning (MSGL) method. This method employs a multi-task learning framework where coarse-scale graph learning, bolstered by larger datasets, simultaneously enhances fine-scale graph learning. Although existing multi-scale or multi-resolution methods integrate data from different spatial scales, they often overlook the spatial correspondences across graph structures at various scales. To address this, our MSGL introduces an additional learning task, cross-scale interpolation learning, which leverages the hydrological connectedness of stream locations across coarse- and fine-scale graphs to establish cross-scale connections, thereby enhancing overall model performance. Furthermore, we have broken free from the mindset that multi-scale learning is limited to synchronous training by proposing an Asynchronous Multi-Scale Graph Learning method (ASYNC-MSGL). Extensive experiments demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our method for anti-sparse downscaling of daily stream temperatures in the Delaware River Basin, USA, highlighting its potential utility for water resources monitoring and management.

Foundation Models for Environmental Science: A Survey of Emerging Frontiers

Modeling environmental ecosystems is essential for effective resource management, sustainable development, and understanding complex ecological processes. However, traditional data-driven methods face challenges in capturing inherently complex and interconnected processes and are further constrained by limited observational data in many environmental applications. Foundation models, which leverages large-scale pre-training and universal representations of complex and heterogeneous data, offer transformative opportunities for capturing spatiotemporal dynamics and dependencies in environmental processes, and facilitate adaptation to a broad range of applications. This survey presents a comprehensive overview of foundation model applications in environmental science, highlighting advancements in common environmental use cases including forward prediction, data generation, data assimilation, downscaling, inverse modeling, model ensembling, and decision-making across domains. We also detail the process of developing these models, covering data collection, architecture design, training, tuning, and evaluation. Through discussions on these emerging methods as well as their future opportunities, we aim to promote interdisciplinary collaboration that accelerates advancements in machine learning for driving scientific discovery in addressing critical environmental challenges.

A Survey of Foundation Models for Environmental Science

Modeling environmental ecosystems is essential for effective resource management, sustainable development, and understanding complex ecological processes. However, traditional methods frequently struggle with the inherent complexity, interconnectedness, and limited data of such systems. Foundation models, with their large-scale pre-training and universal representations, offer transformative opportunities by integrating diverse data sources, capturing spatiotemporal dependencies, and adapting to a broad range of tasks. This survey presents a comprehensive overview of foundation model applications in environmental science, highlighting advancements in forward prediction, data generation, data assimilation, downscaling, model ensembling, and decision-making across domains. We also detail the development process of these models, covering data collection, architecture design, training, tuning, and evaluation. By showcasing these emerging methods, we aim to foster interdisciplinary collaboration and advance the integration of cutting-edge machine learning for sustainable solutions in environmental science.

Physics-Guided Foundation Model for Scientific Discovery: An Application to Aquatic Science

Physics-guided machine learning (PGML) has become a prevalent approach in studying scientific systems due to its ability to integrate scientific theories for enhancing machine learning (ML) models. However, most PGML approaches are tailored to isolated and relatively simple tasks, which limits their applicability to complex systems involving multiple interacting processes and numerous influencing features. In this paper, we propose a \textit{\textbf{P}hysics-\textbf{G}uided \textbf{F}oundation \textbf{M}odel (\textbf{PGFM})} that combines pre-trained ML models and physics-based models and leverages their complementary strengths to improve the modeling of multiple coupled processes. To effectively conduct pre-training, we construct a simulated environmental system that encompasses a wide range of influencing features and various simulated variables generated by physics-based models. The model is pre-trained in this system to adaptively select important feature interactions guided by multi-task objectives. We then fine-tune the model for each specific task using true observations, while maintaining consistency with established physical theories, such as the principles of mass and energy conservation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this methodology in modeling water temperature and dissolved oxygen dynamics in real-world lakes. The proposed PGFM is also broadly applicable to a range of scientific fields where physics-based models are being used.

Multi-granularity Interest Retrieval and Refinement Network for Long-Term User Behavior Modeling in CTR Prediction

Click-through Rate (CTR) prediction is crucial for online personalization platforms. Recent advancements have shown that modeling rich user behaviors can significantly improve the performance of CTR prediction. Current long-term user behavior modeling algorithms predominantly follow two cascading stages. The first stage retrieves subsequence related to the target item from the long-term behavior sequence, while the second stage models the relationship between the subsequence and the target item. Despite significant progress, these methods have two critical flaws. First, the retrieval query typically includes only target item information, limiting the ability to capture the user's diverse interests. Second, relational information, such as sequential and interactive information within the subsequence, is frequently overlooked. Therefore, it requires to be further mined to more accurately model user interests. To this end, we propose Multi-granularity Interest Retrieval and Refinement Network (MIRRN). Specifically, we first construct queries based on behaviors observed at different time scales to obtain subsequences, each capturing users' interest at various granularities. We then introduce an noval multi-head Fourier transformer to efficiently learn sequential and interactive information within the subsequences, leading to more accurate modeling of user interests. Finally, we employ multi-head target attention to adaptively assess the impact of these multi-granularity interests on the target item. Extensive experiments have demonstrated that MIRRN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, an A/B test shows that MIRRN increases the average number of listening songs by 1.32% and the average time of listening songs by 0.55% on a popular music streaming app. The implementation code is publicly available at https://github.com/psycho-demon/MIRRN.