Abstract:U.S. export controls on semiconductors are widely known to be permeable, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) steadily creating state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) models with exfiltrated chips. This paper presents the first concrete, public evidence of how leading PRC AI labs evade and circumvent U.S. export controls. We examine how Chinese companies, notably Tencent, are not only using chips that are restricted under U.S. export controls but are also finding ways to circumvent these regulations by using software and modeling techniques that maximize less capable hardware. Specifically, we argue that Tencent's ability to power its Hunyuan-Large model with non-export controlled NVIDIA H20s exemplifies broader gains in efficiency in machine learning that have eroded the moat that the United States initially built via its existing export controls. Finally, we examine the implications of this finding for the future of the United States' export control strategy.
Abstract:Current regulations on powerful AI capabilities are narrowly focused on "foundation" or "frontier" models. However, these terms are vague and inconsistently defined, leading to an unstable foundation for governance efforts. Critically, policy debates often fail to consider the data used with these models, despite the clear link between data and model performance. Even (relatively) "small" models that fall outside the typical definitions of foundation and frontier models can achieve equivalent outcomes when exposed to sufficiently specific datasets. In this work, we illustrate the importance of considering dataset size and content as essential factors in assessing the risks posed by models both today and in the future. More broadly, we emphasize the risk posed by over-regulating reactively and provide a path towards careful, quantitative evaluation of capabilities that can lead to a simplified regulatory environment.
Abstract:Recent advancements in Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have made significant progress in the field of single-image visual question answering. However, these models face substantial challenges when tasked with queries that span extensive collections of images, similar to real-world scenarios like searching through large photo albums, finding specific information across the internet, or monitoring environmental changes through satellite imagery. This paper explores the task of Multi-Image Visual Question Answering (MIQA): given a large set of images and a natural language query, the task is to generate a relevant and grounded response. We propose a new public benchmark, dubbed "Visual Haystacks (VHs)," specifically designed to evaluate LMMs' capabilities in visual retrieval and reasoning over sets of unrelated images, where we perform comprehensive evaluations demonstrating that even robust closed-source models struggle significantly. Towards addressing these shortcomings, we introduce MIRAGE (Multi-Image Retrieval Augmented Generation), a novel retrieval/QA framework tailored for LMMs that confronts the challenges of MIQA with marked efficiency and accuracy improvements over baseline methods. Our evaluation shows that MIRAGE surpasses closed-source GPT-4o models by up to 11% on the VHs benchmark and offers up to 3.4x improvements in efficiency over text-focused multi-stage approaches.
Abstract:Modern computer vision pipelines handle large images in one of two sub-optimal ways: down-sampling or cropping. These two methods incur significant losses in the amount of information and context present in an image. There are many downstream applications in which global context matters as much as high frequency details, such as in real-world satellite imagery; in such cases researchers have to make the uncomfortable choice of which information to discard. We introduce xT, a simple framework for vision transformers which effectively aggregates global context with local details and can model large images end-to-end on contemporary GPUs. We select a set of benchmark datasets across classic vision tasks which accurately reflect a vision model's ability to understand truly large images and incorporate fine details over large scales and assess our method's improvement on them. By introducing a nested tokenization scheme for large images in conjunction with long-sequence length models normally used for natural language processing, we are able to increase accuracy by up to 8.6% on challenging classification tasks and $F_1$ score by 11.6 on context-dependent segmentation in large images.
Abstract:Current open-source Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) excel at tasks such as open-vocabulary language grounding and segmentation but can suffer under false premises when queries imply the existence of something that is not actually present in the image. We observe that existing methods that fine-tune an LMM to segment images significantly degrade their ability to reliably determine ("see") if an object is present and to interact naturally with humans ("say"), a form of catastrophic forgetting. In this work, we propose a cascading and joint training approach for LMMs to solve this task, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of previous skills. Our resulting model can "see" by detecting whether objects are present in an image, "say" by telling the user if they are not, proposing alternative queries or correcting semantic errors in the query, and finally "segment" by outputting the mask of the desired objects if they exist. Additionally, we introduce a novel False Premise Correction benchmark dataset, an extension of existing RefCOCO(+/g) referring segmentation datasets (which we call FP-RefCOCO(+/g)). The results show that our method not only detects false premises up to 55% better than existing approaches, but under false premise conditions produces relative cIOU improvements of more than 31% over baselines, and produces natural language feedback judged helpful up to 67% of the time.
Abstract:Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise prediction of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.
Abstract:Remote sensing imagery provides comprehensive views of the Earth, where different sensors collect complementary data at different spatial scales. Large, pretrained models are commonly finetuned with imagery that is heavily augmented to mimic different conditions and scales, with the resulting models used for various tasks with imagery from a range of spatial scales. Such models overlook scale-specific information in the data. In this paper, we present Scale-MAE, a pretraining method that explicitly learns relationships between data at different, known scales throughout the pretraining process. Scale-MAE pretrains a network by masking an input image at a known input scale, where the area of the Earth covered by the image determines the scale of the ViT positional encoding, not the image resolution. Scale-MAE encodes the masked image with a standard ViT backbone, and then decodes the masked image through a bandpass filter to reconstruct low/high frequency images at lower/higher scales. We find that tasking the network with reconstructing both low/high frequency images leads to robust multiscale representations for remote sensing imagery. Scale-MAE achieves an average of a $5.0\%$ non-parametric kNN classification improvement across eight remote sensing datasets compared to current state-of-the-art and obtains a $0.9$ mIoU to $3.8$ mIoU improvement on the SpaceNet building segmentation transfer task for a range of evaluation scales.
Abstract:Remote sensing images are useful for a wide variety of environmental and earth monitoring tasks, including tracking deforestation, illegal fishing, urban expansion, and natural disasters. The earth is extremely diverse -- the amount of potential tasks in remote sensing images is massive, and the sizes of features range from several kilometers to just tens of centimeters. However, creating generalizable computer vision methods is a challenge in part due to the lack of a large-scale dataset that captures these diverse features for many tasks. In this paper, we present Satlas, a remote sensing dataset and benchmark that is large in both breadth, featuring all of the aforementioned applications and more, as well as scale, comprising 290M labels under 137 categories and seven label modalities. We evaluate eight baselines and a proposed method on Satlas, and find that there is substantial room for improvement in addressing research challenges specific to remote sensing, including processing image time series that consist of images from very different types of sensors, and taking advantage of long-range spatial context. We also find that pre-training on Satlas substantially improves performance on downstream tasks with few labeled examples, increasing average accuracy by 16% over ImageNet and 5% over the next best baseline.
Abstract:Accurately estimating the snowpack in key mountainous basins is critical for water resource managers to make decisions that impact local and global economies, wildlife, and public policy. Currently, this estimation requires multiple LiDAR-equipped plane flights or in situ measurements, both of which are expensive, sparse, and biased towards accessible regions. In this paper, we demonstrate that fusing spatial and temporal information from multiple, openly-available satellite and weather data sources enables estimation of snowpack in key mountainous regions. Our multisource model outperforms single-source estimation by 5.0 inches RMSE, as well as outperforms sparse in situ measurements by 1.2 inches RMSE.
Abstract:Unsustainable fishing practices worldwide pose a major threat to marine resources and ecosystems. Identifying vessels that evade monitoring systems -- known as "dark vessels" -- is key to managing and securing the health of marine environments. With the rise of satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging and modern machine learning (ML), it is now possible to automate detection of dark vessels day or night, under all-weather conditions. SAR images, however, require domain-specific treatment and is not widely accessible to the ML community. Moreover, the objects (vessels) are small and sparse, challenging traditional computer vision approaches. We present the largest labeled dataset for training ML models to detect and characterize vessels from SAR. xView3-SAR consists of nearly 1,000 analysis-ready SAR images from the Sentinel-1 mission that are, on average, 29,400-by-24,400 pixels each. The images are annotated using a combination of automated and manual analysis. Co-located bathymetry and wind state rasters accompany every SAR image. We provide an overview of the results from the xView3 Computer Vision Challenge, an international competition using xView3-SAR for ship detection and characterization at large scale. We release the data (https://iuu.xview.us/) and code (https://github.com/DIUx-xView) to support ongoing development and evaluation of ML approaches for this important application.