DisenTS: Disentangled Channel Evolving Pattern Modeling for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Significant efforts have been made to integrate advanced network architectures and training strategies that enhance the capture of temporal dependencies, thereby improving forecasting accuracy. On the other hand, mainstream approaches typically utilize a single unified model with simplistic channel-mixing embedding or cross-channel attention operations to account for the critical intricate inter-channel dependencies. Moreover, some methods even trade capacity for robust prediction based on the channel-independent assumption. Nonetheless, as time series data may display distinct evolving patterns due to the unique characteristics of each channel (including multiple strong seasonalities and trend changes), the unified modeling methods could yield suboptimal results. To this end, we propose DisenTS, a tailored framework for modeling disentangled channel evolving patterns in general multivariate time series forecasting. The central idea of DisenTS is to model the potential diverse patterns within the multivariate time series data in a decoupled manner. Technically, the framework employs multiple distinct forecasting models, each tasked with uncovering a unique evolving pattern. To guide the learning process without supervision of pattern partition, we introduce a novel Forecaster Aware Gate (FAG) module that generates the routing signals adaptively according to both the forecasters' states and input series' characteristics. The forecasters' states are derived from the Linear Weight Approximation (LWA) strategy, which quantizes the complex deep neural networks into compact matrices. Additionally, the Similarity Constraint (SC) is further proposed to guide each model to specialize in an underlying pattern by minimizing the mutual information between the representations.

DV-FSR: A Dual-View Target Attack Framework for Federated Sequential Recommendation

Federated recommendation (FedRec) preserves user privacy by enabling decentralized training of personalized models, but this architecture is inherently vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Significant research has been conducted on targeted attacks in FedRec systems, motivated by commercial and social influence considerations. However, much of this work has largely overlooked the differential robustness of recommendation models. Moreover, our empirical findings indicate that existing targeted attack methods achieve only limited effectiveness in Federated Sequential Recommendation (FSR) tasks. Driven by these observations, we focus on investigating targeted attacks in FSR and propose a novel dualview attack framework, named DV-FSR. This attack method uniquely combines a sampling-based explicit strategy with a contrastive learning-based implicit gradient strategy to orchestrate a coordinated attack. Additionally, we introduce a specific defense mechanism tailored for targeted attacks in FSR, aiming to evaluate the mitigation effects of the attack method we proposed. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our proposed approach on representative sequential models.

Efficiently Measuring the Cognitive Ability of LLMs: An Adaptive Testing Perspective

Large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, have shown some human-like cognitive abilities. For comparing these abilities of different models, several benchmarks (i.e. sets of standard test questions) from different fields (e.g., Literature, Biology and Psychology) are often adopted and the test results under traditional metrics such as accuracy, recall and F1, are reported. However, such way for evaluating LLMs can be inefficient and inaccurate from the cognitive science perspective. Inspired by Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) used in psychometrics, we propose an adaptive testing framework for LLM evaluation. Rather than using a standard test set and simply reporting accuracy, this approach dynamically adjusts the characteristics of the test questions, such as difficulty, based on the model's performance. This allows for a more accurate estimation of the model's abilities, using fewer questions. More importantly, it allows LLMs to be compared with humans easily, which is essential for NLP models that aim for human-level ability. Our diagnostic reports have found that ChatGPT often behaves like a ``careless student'', prone to slip and occasionally guessing the questions. We conduct a fine-grained diagnosis and rank the latest 6 instruction-tuned LLMs from three aspects of Subject Knowledge, Mathematical Reasoning, and Programming, where GPT4 can outperform other models significantly and reach the cognitive ability of middle-level students. Different tests for different models using efficient adaptive testing -- we believe this has the potential to become a new norm in evaluating large language models.