Unconditional Truthfulness: Learning Conditional Dependency for Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a perspective approach to detecting Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations and low quality output. In this work, we address one of the challenges of UQ in generation tasks that arises from the conditional dependency between the generation steps of an LLM. We propose to learn this dependency from data. We train a regression model, which target variable is the gap between the conditional and the unconditional generation confidence. During LLM inference, we use this learned conditional dependency model to modulate the uncertainty of the current generation step based on the uncertainty of the previous step. Our experimental evaluation on nine datasets and three LLMs shows that the proposed method is highly effective for uncertainty quantification, achieving substantial improvements over rivaling approaches.

Reference-free Hallucination Detection for Large Vision-Language Models

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) have made significant progress in recent years. While LVLMs exhibit excellent ability in language understanding, question answering, and conversations of visual inputs, they are prone to producing hallucinations. While several methods are proposed to evaluate the hallucinations in LVLMs, most are reference-based and depend on external tools, which complicates their practical application. To assess the viability of alternative methods, it is critical to understand whether the reference-free approaches, which do not rely on any external tools, can efficiently detect hallucinations. Therefore, we initiate an exploratory study to demonstrate the effectiveness of different reference-free solutions in detecting hallucinations in LVLMs. In particular, we conduct an extensive study on three kinds of techniques: uncertainty-based, consistency-based, and supervised uncertainty quantification methods on four representative LVLMs across two different tasks. The empirical results show that the reference-free approaches are capable of effectively detecting non-factual responses in LVLMs, with the supervised uncertainty quantification method outperforming the others, achieving the best performance across different settings.

Conditionally valid Probabilistic Conformal Prediction

We develop a new method for creating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Most existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and probabilistic conformal prediction, only offer marginal coverage guarantees. Our approach extends these methods to achieve conditional coverage, which is essential for many practical applications. While exact conditional guarantees are impossible without assumptions on the data distribution, we provide non-asymptotic bounds that explicitly depend on the quality of the available estimate of the conditional distribution. Our confidence sets are highly adaptive to the local structure of the data, making them particularly useful in high heteroskedasticity situations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive simulations, showing that it outperforms existing methods in terms of conditional coverage and improves the reliability of statistical inference in a wide range of applications.

Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraph

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is becoming increasingly recognized as a critical component of applications that rely on machine learning (ML). The rapid proliferation of large language models (LLMs) has stimulated researchers to seek efficient and effective approaches to UQ in text generation tasks, as in addition to their emerging capabilities, these models have introduced new challenges for building safe applications. As with other ML models, LLMs are prone to make incorrect predictions, ``hallucinate'' by fabricating claims, or simply generate low-quality output for a given input. UQ is a key element in dealing with these challenges. However research to date on UQ methods for LLMs has been fragmented, with disparate evaluation methods. In this work, we tackle this issue by introducing a novel benchmark that implements a collection of state-of-the-art UQ baselines, and provides an environment for controllable and consistent evaluation of novel techniques by researchers in various text generation tasks. Our benchmark also supports the assessment of confidence normalization methods in terms of their ability to provide interpretable scores. Using our benchmark, we conduct a large-scale empirical investigation of UQ and normalization techniques across nine tasks and shed light on the most promising approaches.

Generalization error of spectral algorithms

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of $\textit{spectral algorithms}$ specified by profile $h(\lambda)$, and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile $h(\lambda)$ for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification

Large language models (LLMs) are notorious for hallucinating, i.e., producing erroneous claims in their output. Such hallucinations can be dangerous, as occasional factual inaccuracies in the generated text might be obscured by the rest of the output being generally factual, making it extremely hard for the users to spot them. Current services that leverage LLMs usually do not provide any means for detecting unreliable generations. Here, we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we propose a novel fact-checking and hallucination detection pipeline based on token-level uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty scores leverage information encapsulated in the output of a neural network or its layers to detect unreliable predictions, and we show that they can be used to fact-check the atomic claims in the LLM output. Moreover, we present a novel token-level uncertainty quantification method that removes the impact of uncertainty about what claim to generate on the current step and what surface form to use. Our method Claim Conditioned Probability (CCP) measures only the uncertainty of particular claim value expressed by the model. Experiments on the task of biography generation demonstrate strong improvements for CCP compared to the baselines for six different LLMs and three languages. Human evaluation reveals that the fact-checking pipeline based on uncertainty quantification is competitive with a fact-checking tool that leverages external knowledge.

Predictive Uncertainty Quantification via Risk Decompositions for Strictly Proper Scoring Rules

Distinguishing sources of predictive uncertainty is of crucial importance in the application of forecasting models across various domains. Despite the presence of a great variety of proposed uncertainty measures, there are no strict definitions to disentangle them. Furthermore, the relationship between different measures of uncertainty quantification remains somewhat unclear. In this work, we introduce a general framework, rooted in statistical reasoning, which not only allows the creation of new uncertainty measures but also clarifies their interrelations. Our approach leverages statistical risk to distinguish aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty components and utilizes proper scoring rules to quantify them. To make it practically tractable, we propose an idea to incorporate Bayesian reasoning into this framework and discuss the properties of the proposed approximation.

Efficient Conformal Prediction under Data Heterogeneity

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often violated in practice. Existing approaches for tackling non-exchangeability lead to methods that are not computable beyond the simplest examples. This work introduces a new efficient approach to CP that produces provably valid confidence sets for fairly general non-exchangeable data distributions. We illustrate the general theory with applications to the challenging setting of federated learning under data heterogeneity between agents. Our method allows constructing provably valid personalized prediction sets for agents in a fully federated way. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a series of experiments on real-world datasets.

Dirichlet-based Uncertainty Quantification for Personalized Federated Learning with Improved Posterior Networks

In modern federated learning, one of the main challenges is to account for inherent heterogeneity and the diverse nature of data distributions for different clients. This problem is often addressed by introducing personalization of the models towards the data distribution of the particular client. However, a personalized model might be unreliable when applied to the data that is not typical for this client. Eventually, it may perform worse for these data than the non-personalized global model trained in a federated way on the data from all the clients. This paper presents a new approach to federated learning that allows selecting a model from global and personalized ones that would perform better for a particular input point. It is achieved through a careful modeling of predictive uncertainties that helps to detect local and global in- and out-of-distribution data and use this information to select the model that is confident in a prediction. The comprehensive experimental evaluation on the popular real-world image datasets shows the superior performance of the model in the presence of out-of-distribution data while performing on par with state-of-the-art personalized federated learning algorithms in the standard scenarios.

LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models

Recent advancements in the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have paved the way for a myriad of groundbreaking applications in various fields. However, a significant challenge arises as these models often "hallucinate", i.e., fabricate facts without providing users an apparent means to discern the veracity of their statements. Uncertainty estimation (UE) methods are one path to safer, more responsible, and more effective use of LLMs. However, to date, research on UE methods for LLMs has been focused primarily on theoretical rather than engineering contributions. In this work, we tackle this issue by introducing LM-Polygraph, a framework with implementations of a battery of state-of-the-art UE methods for LLMs in text generation tasks, with unified program interfaces in Python. Additionally, it introduces an extendable benchmark for consistent evaluation of UE techniques by researchers, and a demo web application that enriches the standard chat dialog with confidence scores, empowering end-users to discern unreliable responses. LM-Polygraph is compatible with the most recent LLMs, including BLOOMz, LLaMA-2, ChatGPT, and GPT-4, and is designed to support future releases of similarly-styled LMs.