Failure Probability Estimation for Black-Box Autonomous Systems using State-Dependent Importance Sampling Proposals

Estimating the probability of failure is a critical step in developing safety-critical autonomous systems. Direct estimation methods such as Monte Carlo sampling are often impractical due to the rarity of failures in these systems. Existing importance sampling approaches do not scale to sequential decision-making systems with large state spaces and long horizons. We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm to address these limitations. Our method minimizes the forward Kullback-Leibler divergence between a state-dependent proposal distribution and a relaxed form of the optimal importance sampling distribution. Our method uses Markov score ascent methods to estimate this objective. We evaluate our approach on four sequential systems and show that it provides more accurate failure probability estimates than baseline Monte Carlo and importance sampling techniques. This work is open sourced.

Diffusion-Based Failure Sampling for Cyber-Physical Systems

Validating safety-critical autonomous systems in high-dimensional domains such as robotics presents a significant challenge. Existing black-box approaches based on Markov chain Monte Carlo may require an enormous number of samples, while methods based on importance sampling often rely on simple parametric families that may struggle to represent the distribution over failures. We propose to sample the distribution over failures using a conditional denoising diffusion model, which has shown success in complex high-dimensional problems such as robotic task planning. We iteratively train a diffusion model to produce state trajectories closer to failure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on high-dimensional robotic validation tasks, improving sample efficiency and mode coverage compared to existing black-box techniques.

Entropy-regularized Point-based Value Iteration

Model-based planners for partially observable problems must accommodate both model uncertainty during planning and goal uncertainty during objective inference. However, model-based planners may be brittle under these types of uncertainty because they rely on an exact model and tend to commit to a single optimal behavior. Inspired by results in the model-free setting, we propose an entropy-regularized model-based planner for partially observable problems. Entropy regularization promotes policy robustness for planning and objective inference by encouraging policies to be no more committed to a single action than necessary. We evaluate the robustness and objective inference performance of entropy-regularized policies in three problem domains. Our results show that entropy-regularized policies outperform non-entropy-regularized baselines in terms of higher expected returns under modeling errors and higher accuracy during objective inference.

Deep Normalizing Flows for State Estimation

Safe and reliable state estimation techniques are a critical component of next-generation robotic systems. Agents in such systems must be able to reason about the intentions and trajectories of other agents for safe and efficient motion planning. However, classical state estimation techniques such as Gaussian filters often lack the expressive power to represent complex underlying distributions, especially if the system dynamics are highly nonlinear or if the interaction outcomes are multi-modal. In this work, we use normalizing flows to learn an expressive representation of the belief over an agent's true state. Furthermore, we improve upon existing architectures for normalizing flows by using more expressive deep neural network architectures to parameterize the flow. We evaluate our method on two robotic state estimation tasks and show that our approach outperforms both classical and modern deep learning-based state estimation baselines.

Model-based Validation as Probabilistic Inference

Estimating the distribution over failures is a key step in validating autonomous systems. Existing approaches focus on finding failures for a small range of initial conditions or make restrictive assumptions about the properties of the system under test. We frame estimating the distribution over failure trajectories for sequential systems as Bayesian inference. Our model-based approach represents the distribution over failure trajectories using rollouts of system dynamics and computes trajectory gradients using automatic differentiation. Our approach is demonstrated in an inverted pendulum control system, an autonomous vehicle driving scenario, and a partially observable lunar lander. Sampling is performed using an off-the-shelf implementation of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with multiple chains to capture multimodality and gradient smoothing for safe trajectories. In all experiments, we observed improvements in sample efficiency and parameter space coverage compared to black-box baseline approaches. This work is open sourced.

Risk-aware Meta-level Decision Making for Exploration Under Uncertainty

Robotic exploration of unknown environments is fundamentally a problem of decision making under uncertainty where the robot must account for uncertainty in sensor measurements, localization, action execution, as well as many other factors. For large-scale exploration applications, autonomous systems must overcome the challenges of sequentially deciding which areas of the environment are valuable to explore while safely evaluating the risks associated with obstacles and hazardous terrain. In this work, we propose a risk-aware meta-level decision making framework to balance the tradeoffs associated with local and global exploration. Meta-level decision making builds upon classical hierarchical coverage planners by switching between local and global policies with the overall objective of selecting the policy that is most likely to maximize reward in a stochastic environment. We use information about the environment history, traversability risk, and kinodynamic constraints to reason about the probability of successful policy execution to switch between local and global policies. We have validated our solution in both simulation and on a variety of large-scale real world hardware tests. Our results show that by balancing local and global exploration we are able to significantly explore large-scale environments more efficiently.

How Do We Fail? Stress Testing Perception in Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) rely on environment perception and behavior prediction to reason about agents in their surroundings. These perception systems must be robust to adverse weather such as rain, fog, and snow. However, validation of these systems is challenging due to their complexity and dependence on observation histories. This paper presents a method for characterizing failures of LiDAR-based perception systems for AVs in adverse weather conditions. We develop a methodology based in reinforcement learning to find likely failures in object tracking and trajectory prediction due to sequences of disturbances. We apply disturbances using a physics-based data augmentation technique for simulating LiDAR point clouds in adverse weather conditions. Experiments performed across a wide range of driving scenarios from a real-world driving dataset show that our proposed approach finds high likelihood failures with smaller input disturbances compared to baselines while remaining computationally tractable. Identified failures can inform future development of robust perception systems for AVs.

FIG-OP: Exploring Large-Scale Unknown Environments on a Fixed Time Budget

We present a method for autonomous exploration of large-scale unknown environments under mission time constraints. We start by proposing the Frontloaded Information Gain Orienteering Problem (FIG-OP) -- a generalization of the traditional orienteering problem where the assumption of a reliable environmental model no longer holds. The FIG-OP addresses model uncertainty by frontloading expected information gain through the addition of a greedy incentive, effectively expediting the moment in which new area is uncovered. In order to reason across multi-kilometre environments, we solve FIG-OP over an information-efficient world representation, constructed through the aggregation of information from a topological and metric map. Our method was extensively tested and field-hardened across various complex environments, ranging from subway systems to mines. In comparative simulations, we observe that the FIG-OP solution exhibits improved coverage efficiency over solutions generated by greedy and traditional orienteering-based approaches (i.e. severe and minimal model uncertainty assumptions, respectively).