Probabilistic Reasoning with LLMs for k-anonymity Estimation

Probabilistic reasoning is a key aspect of both human and artificial intelligence that allows for handling uncertainty and ambiguity in decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a novel numerical reasoning task under uncertainty, focusing on estimating the k-anonymity of user-generated documents containing privacy-sensitive information. We propose BRANCH, which uses LLMs to factorize a joint probability distribution to estimate the k-value-the size of the population matching the given information-by modeling individual pieces of textual information as random variables. The probability of each factor occurring within a population is estimated using standalone LLMs or retrieval-augmented generation systems, and these probabilities are combined into a final k-value. Our experiments show that this method successfully estimates the correct k-value 67% of the time, an 11% increase compared to GPT-4o chain-of-thought reasoning. Additionally, we leverage LLM uncertainty to develop prediction intervals for k-anonymity, which include the correct value in nearly 92% of cases.

How to Protect Yourself from 5G Radiation? Investigating LLM Responses to Implicit Misinformation

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely deployed in diverse scenarios, the extent to which they could tacitly spread misinformation emerges as a critical safety concern. Current research primarily evaluates LLMs on explicit false statements, overlooking how misinformation often manifests subtly as unchallenged premises in real-world user interactions. We curated ECHOMIST, the first comprehensive benchmark for implicit misinformation, where the misinformed assumptions are embedded in a user query to LLMs. ECHOMIST is based on rigorous selection criteria and carefully curated data from diverse sources, including real-world human-AI conversations and social media interactions. We also introduce a new evaluation metric to measure whether LLMs can recognize and counter false information rather than amplify users' misconceptions. Through an extensive empirical study on a wide range of LLMs, including GPT-4, Claude, and Llama, we find that current models perform alarmingly poorly on this task, often failing to detect false premises and generating misleading explanations. Our findings underscore the critical need for an increased focus on implicit misinformation in LLM safety research.

Language Models can Self-Improve at State-Value Estimation for Better Search

Collecting ground truth task completion rewards or human demonstrations for multi-step reasoning tasks is often cost-prohibitive and time-consuming, especially in interactive domains like web tasks. To address this bottleneck, we present self-taught lookahead, a self-supervised method that leverages state-transition dynamics to train a value model capable of effectively guiding language model-controlled search. We find that moderately sized (8 billion parameters) open-weight value models improved with self-taught lookahead can match the performance of using a frontier LLM such as gpt-4o as the value model. Furthermore, we find that self-taught lookahead improves performance by 20% while reducing costs 37x compared to previous LLM-based tree search, without relying on ground truth rewards.

Seeing the Forest for the Trees: A Large Scale, Continuously Updating Meta-Analysis of Frontier LLMs

The surge of LLM studies makes synthesizing their findings challenging. Meta-analysis can uncover important trends across studies, but its use is limited by the time-consuming nature of manual data extraction. Our study presents a semi-automated approach for meta-analysis that accelerates data extraction using LLMs. It automatically identifies relevant arXiv papers, extracts experimental results and related attributes, and organizes them into a structured dataset. We conduct a comprehensive meta-analysis of frontier LLMs using an automatically extracted dataset, reducing the effort of paper surveying and data extraction by more than 93\% compared to manual approaches. We validate our dataset by showing that it reproduces key findings from a recent manual meta-analysis about Chain-of-Thought (CoT), and also uncovers new insights that go beyond it, showing for example that in-context examples benefit multimodal tasks but offer limited gains in mathematical tasks compared to CoT. Our automatically updatable dataset enables continuous tracking of target models by extracting evaluation studies as new data becomes available. Through our scientific artifacts and empirical analysis, we provide novel insights into LLMs while facilitating ongoing meta-analyses of their behavior.

What are Foundation Models Cooking in the Post-Soviet World?

The culture of the Post-Soviet states is complex, shaped by a turbulent history that continues to influence current events. In this study, we investigate the Post-Soviet cultural food knowledge of foundation models by constructing BORSch, a multimodal dataset encompassing 1147 and 823 dishes in the Russian and Ukrainian languages, centered around the Post-Soviet region. We demonstrate that leading models struggle to correctly identify the origins of dishes from Post-Soviet nations in both text-only and multimodal Question Answering (QA), instead over-predicting countries linked to the language the question is asked in. Through analysis of pretraining data, we show that these results can be explained by misleading dish-origin co-occurrences, along with linguistic phenomena such as Russian-Ukrainian code mixing. Finally, to move beyond QA-based assessments, we test models' abilities to produce accurate visual descriptions of dishes. The weak correlation between this task and QA suggests that QA alone may be insufficient as an evaluation of cultural understanding. To foster further research, we will make BORSch publicly available at https://github.com/alavrouk/BORSch.

Measuring, Modeling, and Helping People Account for Privacy Risks in Online Self-Disclosures with AI

In pseudonymous online fora like Reddit, the benefits of self-disclosure are often apparent to users (e.g., I can vent about my in-laws to understanding strangers), but the privacy risks are more abstract (e.g., will my partner be able to tell that this is me?). Prior work has sought to develop natural language processing (NLP) tools that help users identify potentially risky self-disclosures in their text, but none have been designed for or evaluated with the users they hope to protect. Absent this assessment, these tools will be limited by the social-technical gap: users need assistive tools that help them make informed decisions, not paternalistic tools that tell them to avoid self-disclosure altogether. To bridge this gap, we conducted a study with N = 21 Reddit users; we had them use a state-of-the-art NLP disclosure detection model on two of their authored posts and asked them questions to understand if and how the model helped, where it fell short, and how it could be improved to help them make more informed decisions. Despite its imperfections, users responded positively to the model and highlighted its use as a tool that can help them catch mistakes, inform them of risks they were unaware of, and encourage self-reflection. However, our work also shows how, to be useful and usable, AI for supporting privacy decision-making must account for posting context, disclosure norms, and users' lived threat models, and provide explanations that help contextualize detected risks.

Granular Privacy Control for Geolocation with Vision Language Models

Vision Language Models (VLMs) are rapidly advancing in their capability to answer information-seeking questions. As these models are widely deployed in consumer applications, they could lead to new privacy risks due to emergent abilities to identify people in photos, geolocate images, etc. As we demonstrate, somewhat surprisingly, current open-source and proprietary VLMs are very capable image geolocators, making widespread geolocation with VLMs an immediate privacy risk, rather than merely a theoretical future concern. As a first step to address this challenge, we develop a new benchmark, GPTGeoChat, to test the ability of VLMs to moderate geolocation dialogues with users. We collect a set of 1,000 image geolocation conversations between in-house annotators and GPT-4v, which are annotated with the granularity of location information revealed at each turn. Using this new dataset, we evaluate the ability of various VLMs to moderate GPT-4v geolocation conversations by determining when too much location information has been revealed. We find that custom fine-tuned models perform on par with prompted API-based models when identifying leaked location information at the country or city level; however, fine-tuning on supervised data appears to be needed to accurately moderate finer granularities, such as the name of a restaurant or building.

Self-MoE: Towards Compositional Large Language Models with Self-Specialized Experts

We present Self-MoE, an approach that transforms a monolithic LLM into a compositional, modular system of self-specialized experts, named MiXSE (MiXture of Self-specialized Experts). Our approach leverages self-specialization, which constructs expert modules using self-generated synthetic data, each equipped with a shared base LLM and incorporating self-optimized routing. This allows for dynamic and capability-specific handling of various target tasks, enhancing overall capabilities, without extensive human-labeled data and added parameters. Our empirical results reveal that specializing LLMs may exhibit potential trade-offs in performances on non-specialized tasks. On the other hand, our Self-MoE demonstrates substantial improvements over the base LLM across diverse benchmarks such as knowledge, reasoning, math, and coding. It also consistently outperforms other methods, including instance merging and weight merging, while offering better flexibility and interpretability by design with semantic experts and routing. Our findings highlight the critical role of modularity and the potential of self-improvement in achieving efficient, scalable, and adaptable systems.

NEO-BENCH: Evaluating Robustness of Large Language Models with Neologisms

The performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) degrades from the temporal drift between data used for model training and newer text seen during inference. One understudied avenue of language change causing data drift is the emergence of neologisms -- new word forms -- over time. We create a diverse resource of recent English neologisms by using several popular collection methods. We analyze temporal drift using neologisms by comparing sentences containing new words with near-identical sentences that replace neologisms with existing substitute words. Model performance is nearly halved in machine translation when a single neologism is introduced in a sentence. Motivated by these results, we construct a benchmark to evaluate LLMs' ability to generalize to neologisms with various natural language understanding tasks and model perplexity. Models with later knowledge cutoff dates yield lower perplexities and perform better in downstream tasks. LLMs are also affected differently based on the linguistic origins of words, indicating that neologisms are complex for static LLMs to address. We will release our benchmark and code for reproducing our experiments.

Stanceosaurus 2.0: Classifying Stance Towards Russian and Spanish Misinformation

The Stanceosaurus corpus (Zheng et al., 2022) was designed to provide high-quality, annotated, 5-way stance data extracted from Twitter, suitable for analyzing cross-cultural and cross-lingual misinformation. In the Stanceosaurus 2.0 iteration, we extend this framework to encompass Russian and Spanish. The former is of current significance due to prevalent misinformation amid escalating tensions with the West and the violent incursion into Ukraine. The latter, meanwhile, represents an enormous community that has been largely overlooked on major social media platforms. By incorporating an additional 3,874 Spanish and Russian tweets over 41 misinformation claims, our objective is to support research focused on these issues. To demonstrate the value of this data, we employed zero-shot cross-lingual transfer on multilingual BERT, yielding results on par with the initial Stanceosaurus study with a macro F1 score of 43 for both languages. This underlines the viability of stance classification as an effective tool for identifying multicultural misinformation.